Sun ap led Wo d

The Ace of Twin City?!

2006-11-06T06:46:00.000-06:00

A Japanese ball fan flashes a board to welcome Minnesota Twins' pitcher Joe Nathan as others flock together with him to take look at U.S. players from stand before the start of the third game of the Major League All-Star team against their Japanese counterpart in Tokyo, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006.
(AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye)

Sweetpea

2006-10-31T21:44:00.000-06:00

Happy Halloween!

Baby Kay of the Milky Way

2006-10-13T17:22:00.000-05:00

I have things to say, rants and philosophical musings, about the way the Twins went down to Oakland and what Terry Ryan should do this winter, but probably will do instead, but right now it doesn't feel particularly important to sit down and blog it all out. This week, as baseball moved on minus the Twins, I've also become a new father--and how is Torii Hunter's contract option supposed to compete with this little girl?

Meet Katherine Anne.

This is a picture I took just after she came home, Thursday afternoon. She's wearing a hat knitted by my sister, Kristi. Great-Grandma Dee sent the blanket.

I'll have more pictures later, probably on Kate's own web page. For now, if you'll excuse me, I have to make a shopping/food run and then, baby willing, maybe take another nap.

Out of Fairytales

2006-09-26T19:36:00.000-05:00

In what had once looked like a lost season, with the Twins posting a 25-33 record and trailing the White Sox by 11 games and the Tigers by 11.5 games on June 7, Minnesota clinched at least the wild card berth with the team's 93rd win last night.

After that low point in June, management made a few big changes, most notably replacing the regular 3rd baseman and Shortstop with a career utilityman and a 26 year-old rookie who supposedly lacked the leadership qualities and "fire in the belly" to play in the major leagues. Nick Punto was just a stopgap to improve the fielding at 3rd base; and some insiders intimated that this was Jason Bartlett's last chance to stick with the club. The team immediately started to play better, and, after winning 7 straight games, climbed back to the .500 mark with a 34-34 record on June 18.

Late that night, I wrote on the Bat Cave bulletin board:

Right now, the Twins have 94 games left. To reach 90 wins would require a 56-38 record the rest of the way, a .596 clip. That might be too optimistic to expect of the team at this point, but I would be very pleased to see the team approach that kind of record, regardless of in what place the Twins finish.

Of course, the team since then has exceeded not only my expectations, but my wildest hopes. Heading into tonight's game with the Royals, the Twins have a 93-63 record with 6 games to play. How did this happen?!

On the morning of June 20th...

Brad Radke was 5-7 with a 5.83 ERA. Afterwards, he was 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA--and the Twins were 10-3 in his starts--even while he was pitching with a torn labrum.

Francisco Liriano had made just 6 starts, posting a 5-1, 1.50 mark. Afterwards, he continued to dominate opponents with a 6-2 record and 2.15 ERA in 10 starts (although the Twins lost both his no-decisions).

Boof Bonser was 1-1 with a 5.81 ERA. Since then, he's 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA and has been an invaluable substitute for Liriano in the rotation; the team is 7-2 in Bonser starts since he took Cisco's place on August 12th. In postseason, he ought to be the #2 starter in the rotation.

Carlos Silva was 3-8 with a 7.07 ERA. Since then, 7-6 with a 5.17 ERA. Erratic, but occasionally effective, enough so that the Twins have a 10-8 record in his starts since June 21st.

Johan Santana was 7-4 with a 2.87 ERA. Since then, 11-2 with a 2.80 ERA, with the Twins going 15-3 in his starts.

Jesse Crain had a 5.51 ERA. Since then, a 1.86 ERA.

Dennys Reyes had just 16 appearances, posting a 1.65 ERA. Since then, a 0.54 ERA... 2 earned runs in 36 apps.

Pat Neshek wasn't with the team. Since his first appearance on July 7th, he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

Justin Morneau was hitting .267/.324/.522; just over a week before, he'd been at .235/.295/.454 and there was some talk of him possibly going back down to AAA. For whatever reason, the light switched on with him in mid-June. He was 16-36 with 5 HR and 18 RBI from June 8-18 to help the Twins get to .500, and he's gone on to hit .363/.422/.598 since.

Torii Hunter was hitting .266/.340/.425. Since then, he's been a-hackin'... balls over the wall while batting .290/.324/.545. At times, since returning in late July from a foot injury, he has struggled to cover his territory in Centerfield, but there's no question that his bat has been a potent force in the Twins offense since late August.

Joe Mauer was carrying the offense with a .380/.447/.528 line when the team was at .500 in June. Since then, even through talk of a slump and the grind of playing behind the plate all summer, he's still hit a great .323/.425/.493. If it's possible for a Sports Illustrated cover subject who's leading the league in hitting to have his contributions overlooked or taken for granted even by the team's own broadcasters and fans, I think that's the case with Joe Mauer. He has come up big for the Twins all year while playing the most demanding position on the diamond, and deserves to be hyped for the MVP award. But he didn't hit 30 homers and he's not one of the pirantas, so forget it.

Luis Castillo was hitting .286/.353/.363 (and sinking) and looked like he belonged on the DL. Since then, .304/.364/.377.

Michael Cuddyer had been part of the regular lineup for about 7 weeks, hitting .272/.371/.529 on the season. Since then, batting between Mauer and Morneau, he's continued to be solid at .280/.354/.475.

Nick Punto had joined the regular lineup for a little more than a week. He was hitting .287/.376/.352 on the season. Since then, Tiny Superhero has hit .300/.360/.395 while hoovering all balls in play at the hot corner.

Jason Bartlett had been with the team less than a week, hitting .389/.450/.444 in his first five games. He's been a huge upgrade over the deposed dictator, batting .314/.374/.404 while playing stellar defense on the season.

Rondell White was hitting .182/.209/.215. At that point, Ron Gardenhire had given up on him--he didn't get another at-bat while he was on the roster in June. After his "rehab" in AAA ended at the All-Star break, he's hit .317/.353/.549.

Jason Tyner and Josh Rabe would not join the team until the All-Star break. Rabe has hit .286/.314/.490 in a fill-in role, while Tyner has hit .316/.347/.359 as the team's fourth piranta.

A lot of this seemed wildly improbable, even inconceivable, back in June. Honestly, I still have some trouble accepting that it's real. Even a couple weeks ago, I had my doubts. But the team has been spinning its magic for over 3 months, now. Maybe it's the mania setting in, but at this point the only other team in the majors that I can see giving the Twins real trouble in a postseason series is the damn Yankees--and that's mainly because the New York lineup is so loaded. The Yankees pitching rotation of Johnson-Mussina- Wang-Wright doesn't look all that imposing this season. If Twins pitching can continue to work its mojo, or if the Yankees might be avoided altogether, it's looking like the Twins may prove to be the best team in baseball this year.

Back in June, who wouldathunk?

All Right, For Moss...

2006-09-06T18:48:00.000-05:00

Last night I heard Dick Bremer muse that Detroit's 5-game lead in the division to start the day may not really be 5 games. That is, if you consider how the Twins could win 3 of 4 against the Tigers this weekend, thereby making up 2 games in the standings right there. Easy-peasy!

Inspired by his impeccable reasoning, I'm going to assume that the Twins will play at a .750 clip the rest of the season. Roughly, that should leave the Twins with 99 wins and a breezy sail to the postseason. Was there ever a doubt? Put in the deposit for postseason tickets now, my friends.

Actually, I have been doubting the Twins' chances of holding off the White Sox, much less catching the Tigers, since Francisco Liriano went on the Disabled List. I figured Radke may not last the season, the gimps at 2nd base and in Centerfield were not inspiring any confidence in their future down the stretch, any number of the little "piranhas" could go belly-up at any time, and I'd written off Carlos Silva long ago. It seemed that the team leaned too much on Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano to be Supermen. With Liriano out of action for a significant length of time, how could the team win the 95 games or more to make a serious playoff bid?

As it's happened, the Twins are 13-10 since August 12, the first day Boof Bonser replaced Liriano in the rotation, and 3-2 in Bonser's starts. Good enough to make up 2 games on the White Sox, turning a deficit of 1.5 games into a half-game lead in the wild card race, while the Red Sox have tumbled from a half-game behind Minnesota to a full 6 games back. Even the Tigers have done the Twins the favor of slipping on a 9-16 skid to put Minnesota within 4 games of the division lead now--and only 3 games behind in the Loss column. Mighty considerate of the other guys to take a nap, just when the Twins must go without such an essential part of the team's success.

Still, do the Twins have the look of a legitimate pennant threat?

The Twins offense lately has often looked shaky, leading Batgirl to curse even worse than Bert Blyleven and the local press to make snide remarks about dead fish. In the last 10 games, the team has scored 2.7 runs per game. Luis Castillo missed an important series last weekend with an ankle injury, and Torii Hunter's bad foot still makes him a liability in Centerfield. Joe Mauer looks tired at the plate. Nick Punto and Jason Tyner have cooled off. The only help acquired by Terry Ryan is Phil Nevin, now hitting .210/.297/.398 as an AL player this season, as opposed to his .274/.335/.497 line in the 67 games he got to enjoy in the friendly environs of Wrigley Field and the NL. (Why do the Twins keep getting hitters after they go off the steroids?) Brad Radke has a stress fracture in his shoulder which may end his season and career. The starting rotation after Santana still seems like a grab bag, and nobody still knows for sure what Liriano may be able to contribute after he returns.

Yet, Johan Santana continues to be heroic as usual, winning one game after another. The team is 6-0 in Santana starts since placing Liriano on the DL, while the man has posted a 1.43 ERA; and, in fact, the Twins have not lost in a Santana start since July 9, a streak of 11 wins. Cy Young, once again, is saving his team's season.

In a race where the competition is playing like it belongs in the playoffs, perhaps just one Superman pitcher would not be enough to lift his team over the top. Santana has five more starts; and even if the team can win them all, to reach 95 wins the Twins would still need a 10-9 mark in the other remaining games, which is better than the team has been doing since losing Liriano. But as long as the White Sox and Tigers continue to struggle with their own flaws, the story could have a happier ending.

Everything else about the season has been so improbable, why not?

More Roster Juggling

2006-08-02T18:53:00.000-05:00

After making his spot start in today's 10-2 loss, allowing 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings, Boof Bonser was sent back to AAA Rochester, replaced by... Mike Smith?

You're forgiven if you did not know Smith from Smithee, or that he's a 28 year-old righthander who appeared in 14 games for the Blue Jays in 2002, and has posted a 9-4 record with a 3.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 6.75 K/9 in 125.1 IP with Rochester this season. The Twins plan to use him as Brad Radke's back-up in case he has another early exit on Thursday, or else give Smith the start on Sunday in Kansas City.

Scott Baker must wait at least 10 days for a return to the Twins, unless he's recalled sooner to replace a player going on the Disabled List. That may give Smith two starts to make an impression, while Baker works in Rochester to make his coaches happy and send along glowing reports to Terry Ryan's office. The timing may work out well for Baker, unless Smith catches a few flakes of magic pixie dust from hanging around Jason Tyner and Broccoli Rabe this week.

The only Red Wings pitcher besides Bonser and Baker currently on the 40-man roster is J.D. Durbin, who has pitched well but is done for the season because of a nerve problem in his right biceps. There remains one empty spot on the 40-man, which is likely to go to Matt Garza, but Terry Ryan on television lately sounds like he would prefer to keep Garza in AAA until September. That's sensible: Garza, 22, began the year at Fort Myers, moving to AA New Britain in mid-May, and now has just 4 starts to his credit at AAA. Ryan says he wants Garza to work on his secondary pitches before jumping another level. The Twins may push back Garza's arbitration eligibility by delaying the start of his service clock until September, as well.

So, depending on what happens with Smith, Radke, or Liriano this week, Scott Baker may still have one more window of opportunity with the Twins this season, before Garza will be demanding Ron Gardenhire's attention and, perhaps, great affection.

Baker Down, Bonser Up, Cisco On the Shelf

2006-08-02T03:31:00.000-05:00

Scott Baker is back on the Yo-Yo Express to Rochester, after the Rangers touched him for 8 runs in the 4th inning in last night's 9-0 Twins loss. However, perhaps it's just a necessary roster move to press Boof Bonser into an emergency spot start in today's game, after Francisco Liriano was scratched because of what the club is calling "discomfort in his left forearm," and not a knee-jerk reaction to a blowout loss.

Baker cruised through 3 innings last night, but then Carlos Lee led off the 4th with an 0-2 double off the Baggie. A groundout moved him to 3rd, before scoring on a Hank Blalock single. Nick Punto then made an impressive diving stop on the 3rd baseline to limit Ian Kinsler to an infield single; but with the next batter, Matt Stairs, he took a routine double-play ball but botched the throw to 2nd base, scoring Blalock and putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, instead of ending the inning.

Baker, to his credit, went right after the next batter, Rod Barajas, quickly bringing him to an 0-2 count. He meant his next pitch to move Barajas off the plate with a little chin music, just as a young pitcher is taught, but it got away from him and hit Barajas on the hands. Up comes Brad Wilkerson, and Baker again starts him with two strikes before wasting a ball. Strangely, on the 1-2 pitch, Joe Mauer set up a high, standing target, just where the club feels Baker is most vulnerable, and Wilkerson smacked a groundball through the hole on the rightside, scoring another run. 3-0, Rangers. Bases loaded still, 1 out.

Up comes Gary Matthews, Jr. Baker fell behind with a couple balls, but came back to get a full count with a couple pitches fouled off by Matthews. The 6th pitch was supposed to be low, on the inside corner. Baker hit the corner but left it up in Matthews' wheelhouse. Free breakfast at Denny's. 7-0, Rangers. Acting manager Scott Ullger, showing all the touch that was his hallmark as the hitting coach for too many years, left Baker in to face Michael Young, and the process virtually repeated. Baker fell behind, rallied to get a full count, then coughed up a homer over the Baggie.

To give Ullger some benefit of the doubt, perhaps he was slow with the hook because the inning seemed to fall apart so quickly, without much warning. Even after the Punto error, Baker was getting batters to 2 strikes. Pitching coach Rick Anderson made a note of it after the game:

"I thought Baker was down in the zone better, but the tale of the whole night was there in the big inning. Obviously, we didn't make a play or two, but you look at the hitters in the fourth inning there, we had seven of them with two strikes and all of them got on base. That was probably the biggest thing, getting ahead and putting them away, and we didn't do that very well tonight."

Could it be that Baker is just too well-trained in the Brad Radke School of Pitching to Contact? And maybe he was just a bit unlucky on a couple of those balls hit into play, again. There is a difference of 1.70 runs between his ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) this season, and his 'normalized' Expected FIP approaches an encouraging level of decency at 4.80. As we've observed before, Baker also has shown a tendency to struggle when he has too much time between starts. Last night was the third time this season when Baker was rocked after Gardy skipped his turn in the rotation.

Fielding-independent indications show that Baker is a talented pitcher who belongs in the Twins rotation, and should become a reliable asset if he's given regular work, patient instruction, and the experience to help him learn. I don't think he's going to learn how to put away hitters with 2 strikes any better by shipping him back to Rochester.

We can hope that it is just a temporary move to accomodate Liriano, while we beg Merciful Jobu to let Liriano's arm problem be nothing but a little muscle soreness. After all, it was not the Cisco Kid who accepted the invitation to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week.

I must admit, though, that Rick Anderson's assurances ("It's not the elbow, it's just in the forearm.") do nothing to quell my sense of dread. I've seen too many pitchers go on the shelf for Tommy John surgery, or worse, after an initial diagnosis of "sore forearm." I've got my chicken bones at the ready. Jobu, please.

Mr. Lee, Mr. Lee

2006-07-28T20:50:00.000-05:00

The Rangers won the Carlos Lee sweepstakes this afternoon, trading Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, outfielder Laynce Nix, and minor league pitcher Julian Cordero in exchange for Lee and minor league outfielder Nelson Cruz.

Lee was the best regular player on a 48-54 Brewers team that trails Cincinnati by 6 games in the NL Wild Card race, batting .286/.347/.549--or a .296 EqA, worth 27.4 VORP to the team. But, GM Doug Melvin says Lee recently rejected a contract extension of $48 million over 4 years, so he had to be traded to help build towards the future, if not also bolster this year's team for the stretch run at the same time.

So what kind of haul did he bring in?

Kevin Mench is a 28 year-old corner OF hitting .284/.338/.459, a .270 EqA (.274/.335/.480, .274 EqA career), worth 8.3 VORP so far this season.
Francisco Cordero is 31, and has a 4.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 48.2 IP (3.44, 1.39 career), worth 7.0 VORP so far this season.
Laynce Nix is 25, hitting .269/.323/.430 in AAA this season, with a career line of .241/.278/.414 in 869 PA's in the majors.

As for the minor leaguers, the Brewers sent Nelson Cruz, turned 26 this month, hitting .302/.378/.528 with 20 HR and 17 steals in AAA Nashville, who will start in Rightfield for the Rangers after joining the team this weekend. In return comes 21 year-old lefty Julian Cordero, 2-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.49 K/9, 1.89:1 K/BB ratio in Low A Clinton.

Doug Melvin may claim to have immediately multiplied his assets with three players who may make immediate contributions to the Brewers, but it's really a poor return for one of the best trading chips on the market this month. Mench will be with Milwaukee for at least two more years while in his arbitration period, but at 28 he's only an ordinary corner outfielder. Francisco Cordero always puts up a nice K/9 ratio, but otherwise he's a mediocre righty reliever in mid-career who stands to make $5 million next season if the Brewers pick up his option. Nix at this point seems to have marginal offensive skills. And to top it off, it looks like the Rangers got the best of the prospect exchange, too.

Maybe this is just the benefit of dealing with a man who used to run your organization: he still sees Mench, Cordero, and Nix as the bright young things, full of potential, that he used to know when he first acquired them. But it also goes to show how even the best players on the trading block may change teams without exchanging core players or top prospects. In terms of general value measured by VORP, this deal is something like the Twins giving up Luis Castillo, Jesse Crain, Jason Tyner, and a Class A pitcher of no concern, in exchange for a player who would be the best OF bat on the Twins, plus a promising minor league hitter to bolster the bench.

Denizens of Twins Territory, if you feel so inclined, today thank Jobu for not making us Brewers fans.

Displaced Anger

2006-07-25T21:43:00.000-05:00

White Sox reliever Neal Cotts expresses his feelings after giving up a 3-run HR to Joe Mauer in the 7th inning Monday night, Mauer's first home run against a lefty this season, to put the Twins up, 6-2.

G'ah! So angry! But what to do about it... A-ha!

After punching the bucket with the back of his hand, sunflower seed packets go flying.

Iguchi (Guchi-gu) and Pods pretend not to notice.

Oh, no, bucket. He's not done with you, yet.

Cotts SMASH!

RAGE!

Spent.

All-Star Arcana

2006-07-07T18:19:00.000-05:00

In a game thread at the SBG site during the Houston series, the question came up, "Is Ron Coomer the worst Twins All-Star?

So I did some research to find all the Twins All-Stars who finished the season with an OPS+ below the league average. You can find my complete list and comments here.

These were the Twins to finish their All-Star seasons with a VORP under 10.0:

All-Star	Line at Break	Final Line	OPS+	Win Sh.	VORP
R. Coomer, '99	.282/.312/.458	.263/.307/.424	82	8	-2.8
D. Engle, '84	.310/.343/.408	.266/.308/.353	79	6	3.5
E. Battey, '66	.285/.349/.337	.263/.333/.321	83	13	6.0
J. Roseboro, '69	.283/.359/.354	.263/.333/.321	83	10	6.1
B. Wynegar, '77	.290/.368/.417	.261/.344/.370	96	18	6.6
G. Gaetti, '89	.268/.296/.449	.251/.286/.404	88	12	8.1
J. Perry, '71	12-8, 4.10 ERA	17-17, 4.23 ERA	84*	10	8.4

*signifies ERA+

Since then, of course Francisco Liriano in the midst of a phenomenal season has been robbed of his rightful place on the 2006 All-Star team, which makes me wonder: what were the best seasons posted by a Twins player who did not make the All-Star team in that year?

First we'll look at the hitters, then the pitchers.

Hitters	Line at Break	Final Line	OPS+	Win Sh.	VORP
C. Knoblauch, '95	.312/.393/.399	.333/.424/.487	138	27	72.3
L. Bostock, '77	.330/.393/.473	.336/.389/.508	144	27	56.8
K. Hrbek, '84	.335/.401/.514	.311/.383/.522	144	24	53.0
S. Mack, '92	.288/.366/.450	.315/.394/.467	138	27	50.3
K. Hrbek, '88	.313/.400/.552	.312/.387/.520	149	19	49.9
T. Walker, '98	.331/.375/.502	.316/.372/.473	119	19	47.1
R. Smalley, '78	.272/.347/.414	.273/.362/.433	122	22	45.6
P. Molitor, '96	.325/.376/.441	.341/.390/.468	115	18	45.6
C. Davis, '91	.269/.366/.521	.277/.385/.507	121	22	40.8
C. Koskie, '01	.259/.354/.454	.276/.362/.488	121	24	40.6
K. Hrbek, '87	.272/.367/.537	.285/.389/.545	141	25	39.7
C. Tovar, '70	.314/.380/.494	.300/.356/.442	118	28	29.6
J. Jones, '02	.284/.327/.469	.300/.341/.511	125	25	28.6

Minimum 25 Win Shares or 40 VORP

Justin Morneau is hitting .301/.355/.596 with a 27.0 VORP as of today, and 11 Win Shares through 7/2.

Chuck Knoblauch made 4 All-Star teams in his Twins career, but missed the '95 Game because Indians fans stuffed the ballot boxes for Carlos Baerga, and Roberto Alomar was chosen as the 2B reserve. Knobby responded by hitting .345/.442/.547 in the last 3 months of the season.

The '77 Twins apparently filled their quota of All-Stars with Rod Carew, Larry Hisle, and Butch Wynegar, leaving great performances by Lyman Bostock and Dave Goltz unrewarded.

Kent Hrbek in '84 had the strange distinction of finishing 2nd in the MVP vote, but was passed over as the Twins' token rep at the All-Star Game in favor of Dave Engle, one of the least deserving Twins ever to get the honor. Hrbek lost out again in the World Series year of '87 when Kirby Puckett was the Twins' lone rep. Incredibly, when Tom Kelly had the authority to pick All-Star reserves the next summer, he didn't pick his man Hrbek, although Hrbek was enjoying one of his very best seasons. TK later did the same thing to Shane Mack in '92. Of course, you see Todd Walker up there, another part of TK's player relations legacy.

Cesar Tovar established himself through his first four years with the Twins as a Super-Utility regular in the lineup. In a late-September game in 1968, he even played all 9 positions on the field, striking out Reggie Jackson in his scoreless inning on the mound. But, by 1970, he had moved to the outfield nearly full-time, usually in Centerfield. He must have been an extraordinary fielder in the Twins outfield that year, because he rates 28 Win Shares despite a 118 OPS+ and a VORP that ranks 51st in the majors that season, and yet he didn't win a Gold Glove and isn't listed by Win Shares amongst the top three defensive outfielders in the AL for 1970. So I'm a bit skeptical of those 28 Win Shares, but that's what the book says.

Jacque Jones was one of the AL's best defensive Leftfielders in 2002 with an .899 ZR and league-leading 2.60 RF, earning 4.57 Win Shares for his fielding, just 0.75 Win Shares less than Torii Hunter's defensive value in Centerfield that season. Jacque also led the Twins with 97 Runs Created and 19.89 Offensive Win Shares, but his VORP takes a hit because of all the Leftfielders who could mash, particularly in the NL, that season. Had he been the one groomed to take over Centerfield instead of moving over for Hunter in 1999-2000, he well might have been the one to sign the big multi-year contract and become the "Face of the Franchise" in 2002, instead of his good buddy.

Pitchers	Line at Break	Final Line	ERA+	Win Sh.	VORP
J. Santana, '04	7-4, 3.89 ERA	20-6, 2.61 ERA	182	27	89.9
F. Viola, '87	8-6, 2.96 ERA	17-10, 2.90 ERA	161	24	82.2
K. Tapani, '91	5-7, 3.14 ERA	16-9, 2.99 ERA	143	21	66.9
J. Koosman, '79	11-6, 3.52 ERA	20-13, 3.38 ERA	130	23	64.6
C. Pascual, '63	9-5, 2.57 ERA	21-9, 2.46 ERA	141	22	59.8
B. Blyleven, '74	8-10, 3.06 ERA	17-17, 2.66 ERA	142	23	58.1
D. Goltz, '77	10-6, 3.67 ERA	20-11, 3.66 ERA	119	22	57.9
B. Blyleven, '75	7-4, 3.42 ERA	15-10, 3.00 ERA	129	21	57.3
J. Perry, '69	11-4, 3.07 ERA	20-6, 2.82 ERA	130	20	56.6
F. Viola, '84	9-7, 3.02 ERA	18-12, 3.21 ERA	131	22	56.2
D. Corbett, '80	2.15 ERA, 8 Sv	8-6, 1.98, 23 Sv	220	24	51.9
B. Blyleven, '71	7-11, 3.13 ERA	16-15, 2.81 ERA	127	20	50.5

Minimum 20 Win Shares and 50 VORP

First, it's interesting to note that Santana in '04 and Viola in '87 posted the two best seasons of pitching, by VORP, in Twins history, and yet both also were excluded from the All-Star Game in those years.

Francisco Liriano has a 10-1 record and 1.83 ERA through tonight's game, and 13 Win Shares and a 37.4 VORP prior to his latest start. So he's on a pace to hit at least #3 on the list, and clearly he is the most dominant Twins pitcher through this point of the season not to get an invitation to the All-Star Game.

Santana's 2004 season tops the list, and most of us remember how he was slow to get going that season: at the end of May, he was 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA. When he beat Milwaukee on June 25, his ERA was still just a so-so 4.38 to go with a 6-3 record, and then he took the Loss in a 2-1 defeat to Chicago on July 1, albeit dropping his ERA to 4.22. He wouldn't generate a national buzz about him until August, when he beat Mike Mussina and the Yankees on the 18th to put his record at 13-6, 3.23, and people started talking about him as a short-list candidate for the Cy Young Award.

The usual trouble for the pitchers above seems to be a mediocre W-L record at the break, or a low Saves total in Doug Corbett's case (Joe Nathan, give him a call). Last night during the Twins TV broadcast, Dick once joked, "You know what they say down on the field, 'It all evens out in the end,'" but Bert wouldn't play that. As he muttered that he didn't believe in that aphorism, he sounded all of the man who was cheated out of 300 Wins, his fair share of All-Star Games, and possibly a plaque in the Hall of Fame because of bad breaks that decidedly did not even out in the end.

Jim Perry's chances of making the All-Star team in '69 might have been hurt because there were already 4 Twins getting the nod, but he also might have rallied just too late to get serious consideration. After pitching on July 1, Perry had a 6-4 record and 3.68 ERA, only about league-average that season. But in his next 6 starts before the break in late July, he racked up 5 Wins and lowered his ERA to 3.07. He ended up 3rd in the Cy Young voting, and would go the All-Star Game and win the Cy Young Award the next year.

Camilo Pascual in '63 was already a veteran of 4 straight All-Star Games, and would play in the Mid-Summer Classic again in 1964, but in 1963 he was out of action for the better part of June and early July, spoiling his All-Star streak. He would finish the season 2nd in the league with 21 Wins, 3rd with a 2.46 ERA, and best in the league with 202 strikeouts.

Jerry Koosman in '79 was a 36 year-old veteran taken off the Mets' scrap heap before the season in exchange for Greg Fields and prospect Jesse Orosco. He had posted a 3-15, 3.75 mark (94 ERA+) the previous year in New York, but the waters of Minnesota revived him. The 3rd place Twins (48-41 at the break) were only represented at the All-Star Game by Roy Smalley; but, on the last day of the season, Koosman had his moment of glory when he not only earned his 20th Win but also blanked the Brewers, spoiling Milwaukee's bid to be the first team since the '32 Yankees to play an entire season without being shut out.

A Travesmockery

2006-07-06T20:02:00.000-05:00

So A.J. Pierzynski, who may be the 5th or 6th best Catcher in the American League this season, won the "last chance" fan vote to make the All-Star team today. This means, barring any righteous changes over the weekend, that Travis Hafner, the league's most valuable hitter, and Francisco Liriano, the league ERA leader, will not be AL All-Stars.

Can you imagine David Stern standing for this?

There are always deserving players who miss the cut for the All-Star teams, but Hafner and Liriano are more than just deserving, they're a couple of the most valuable players in the league to this point in the season. If the Indians hadn't tanked this spring, Hafner would be a leading MVP candidate; and, despite his late entry into the Twins rotation, Liriano looks to be on his way to win the Rookie of the Year and possibly even the Cy Young Award. Yet neither player is on the AL All-Star team, because a player from Chicago actively campaigned for votes on Fox Sports Net this week, but also because the commissioner will not exert some of his authority to override Ozzie Guillen's shenanigans and make things right.

Bud Selig could have said no when Guillen picked Mark Buehrle, on the grounds that not only Francisco Liriano but several starting pitchers in the league have been better than him this season. Selig could have stepped in to name Hafner when Alex Rios or Robinson Cano withdrew because of injury. Selig could have said, there are enough White Sox players on the team, so, no, we're not putting another White Sox player on the "last chance" ballot.

Manny Ramirez has announced that he will skip the All-Star Game to rest a sore knee. I've heard that Guillen has promised to add his 3rd baseman Joe Crede to the All-Star team. Last night, Dick Bremer reported a rumor that former White Sock, and Guillen's fellow countryman, Magglio Ordonez would get the nod. Either way, more cronyism.

Selig could put his foot down. He is the Supreme High Commander, after all. But, as usual, it looks like he'll act as if it's all out of his hands. Maybe he'll commission a Blue Ribbon Panel to study the issue, and announce the findings as soon as George Mitchell is done asking players if they know anyone who ever used steroids, or sometime next decade, whichever comes first.

Ex-Twins Update

2006-07-05T01:17:00.000-05:00

As we cross the midway point of the season, let's check in to see how some old friends are doing.

PITCHERS
K. Rogers (Det): 10-3, 3.72 ERA, 25.2 VORP
H. Carrasco (LAA): 2-2, 3.93 ERA, 11.1 VORP
L. Hawkins (Bal): 1-1, 3.82 ERA, 8.8 VORP
J. Beimel (LAD): 2-1, 3.34 ERA, 8.5 VORP
E. Milton (Cin): 4-4, 5.09 ERA, 6.5 VORP
A. Fultz (Phi): 1-0, 4.70 ERA, 4.7 VORP
M. Redman (KC): 5-4, 5.59 ERA, 3.5 VORP
E. Guardado (Sea): 1-3, 5.48 ERA, 5/8 Sv, 1.2 VORP
T. Jones (Det): 1-5, 6.00 ERA, 22/25 Sv, 0.0 VORP
J. C. Romero (LAA): 1-2, 6.83 ERA, -7.5 VORP
J. Mays (KC): 0-4, 10.27 ERA, -16.9 VORP
J. Mays (Cin): 0-1, 5.50 ERA, 0.2 VORP
G. Balfour (Cin): 60-day DL, shoulder and elbow

BATS
D. Ortiz (Bos): .273/.380/.589, 30.1 VORP
C. Blake (Cle): .304/.388/.519, 18.9 VORP
J. Jones (Cub): .307/.339/.537, 16.7 VORP
A. Pierzynski (CWS): .327/.372/.449, 16.5 VORP
C. Koskie (Mil): .265/.347/.498, 10.0 VORP
D. Miller (Mil): .275/.343/.446, 8.5 VORP
D. Mientkiewicz (KC): .278/.361/.403, 5.8 VORP
T. Walker (Cubs): .287/.359/.374, 5.8 VORP
R. Bowen (SD): .311/.418/.489, 5.5 VORP
B. Kielty (Oak): .288/.368/.432, 3.5 VORP
J. Castro (Cin): .304/.304/.478, 1.2 VORP
M. LeCroy (DC): .219/.329/.359, -0.6 VORP
C. Gomez (Balt): .222/.327/.311, -0.8 VORP
M. Lawton (Sea): .259/.310/.259, -1.3 VORP (released)
H. Blanco (Cubs): .240/.286/.438, -1.4 VORP
Q. McCracken (Cin): .212/.268/.327, -2.0 VORP
D. Mohr (Bos): .175/.233/.350, -2.5 VORP (released)
J. Valentin (Cin): .211/.273/.294, -6.1 VORP
C. Moeller (Mil): .184/.231/.276, -7.5 VORP
D. Ardoin (Col): .191/.248/.266, -8.1 VORP
C. Guzman (DC): Out for the season, shoulder

MINORS
T. Bowyer (Fla): disabled, arm
S. Tyler (AA-Fla): 1-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 30 K, 35 IP
M. Ryan (AAA-Atl): .234/.308/.327, 3 HR
B. Abernathy (AAA-Mil): .282/.358/.344, 10 SB
C. Miller (AAA-Bos): .214/.281/.333
C. Allen (AAA-KC): .336/.388/.556, 10 HR
M. Restovich (AAA-Cub): .296/.376/.538, 11 HR
L. Rivas (AAA-TB): .183/.204/.247, 96 PA

Snarky aside: for the 6th season running, Todd Walker, even in a down year, is better than the Twins 2nd baseman. Minnesota this year is spending $5 million on a 2B worth 2.1 VORP, so far. But it's not as if anyone saw Castillo as a mistake last winter, right?

Anyhow, if I missed anyone of interest here, please let me know.

The Return of DePodesta

2006-06-30T21:01:00.000-05:00

Just days after I wrote about Paul DePodesta, the news reports say he has landed with the Padres, hired as "Special Assistant for Baseball Operations," which apparently means he will be advising GM Kevin Towers and other baseball men in the organization. So who hired him?

Sandy Alderson, now CEO of the Padres, formerly the Oakland Athletics GM who mentored Billy Beane. DePodesta will report directly to him.

I just found a new favorite NL team. I hope the Padres stick it to the Dodgers for years to come.

Twins vs. Twins

2006-06-29T19:34:00.000-05:00

My interest in tracking the Twins' record has been revived sufficiently enough to start updating the Twins vs. Twins table in the righthand column again. The hot streak of late may be too little, too late to reel in the Tigers or White Sox, but at least the team is making up ground on Tom Kelly's 2001 Twins.

On June 7, when the 2006 Twins were standing at 25-33 (OK, hardly standing), TK's team had a 12-game lead which has now been reduced to 4. The 2001 Twins are in the midst of a hot streak of their own, winning 11 of their next 13 (and 15 of 18 in the run), so they may add back some padding to their lead over the next couple weeks, but students of Twins history and those who bore witness at the time know that TK's last team goes down like Icarus right after reaching their apex of the season.

Whether the same fate awaits this Twins team, in what looks like another transitional season in club history, we'll see....

The Architect in Exile: Paul DePodesta is Dead, Long Live DePodesta!

2006-06-27T19:11:00.000-05:00

In February 2004, the Dodgers hired Paul DePodesta, famous to Moneyball readers as Oakland GM Billy Beane's assistant and resident expert on computers and sabermetric analysis, as their new General Manager. My friends in the Mariners online community, as well as the writers at the USS Mariner blog, were incensed to see him hired by LA while in the same offseason Seattle had hired Bill Bavasi for the GM job without giving DePodesta so much as an interview. The sabermetric mind of DePodesta matched with the Dodgers' budget and resources was supposed to revitalize that franchise, doing for Los Angeles what Theo Epstein and Bill James along with a huge budget would, as it turned out, instead do for Boston.

The Los Angeles media, led by the LA Times columnist Bill Plaschke, as well as traditionalist elements within the Dodgers organization had a far different reaction. As Gleeman once noted in an eviscerating response to a 2004 Plaschke column titled, "With Luck, the Dodgers Won't Crash," the skeptics in the LA media thought of DePodesta as too young and too nerdy for the job of running their proud franchise, which hadn't been to the playoffs since 1996. Every move DePodesta would make was to be treated with suspicion or derision by much of the mainstream media, especially in Southern California.

When the Dodgers traded Paul LoDuca, Guillermo Mota, and Juan Encarnacion to the Marlins for Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi, and a minor league pitcher in July 2004, most of the big media hailed The Fish for filling a couple big needs just in time for another pennant drive. Jayson Stark tabbed Florida the big winners at the trade deadline, and the Dodgers big losers. The backlash for trading the "Team Leader" LoDuca and an ace setup man in Mota, when the Dodgers were riding high in 1st place, was merciless. "To say I'm getting killed is an understatement," DePodesta told Peter Gammons, one of the few mainstream commentators to defend him, "but we did what we did to try not just to make the postseason, but to go deep. In this job, you have to do what you believe is right."

Never mind that the team would go on to win the NL West with a 93-69 mark, albeit losing to the eventual NL pennant winners in the NLDS; or that the Dodgers had in-house replacements for Mota in the bullpen; or that LoDuca was 32, getting old for a Catcher, and actually took his customary 2nd half swoon after the trade to Florida. DePo's detractors and LoDuca's fans would never forgive him for trading the Dodgers' "heart and soul" behind the plate.

They pounced again when DePodesta passed on re-signing Adrian Beltre after he'd finally posted a breakout year and nearly won the NL MVP in 2004. The Dodgers let Beltre sign a lucrative longterm deal with Seattle, and instead brought in Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew to replace his offense. Never mind that Kent went on to hit .289/.377/.512, and Drew hit .286/.412/.520 in the 72 games he was healthy enough to play, while Beltre turned into a pumpkin with the Mariners. Hee Seop Choi also hit .253/.336/.453, and Brad Penny as well as free agent signing Derek Lowe pitched well in 2005. But the Dodgers were crippled by injuries and fell to 4th place with 71 wins, and it was deemed DePodesta's fault. There was more bad buzz after the season when manager Jim Tracy left, supposedly because of friction with DePodesta. Shortly thereafter, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt caved to media pressure and fired his GM.

As the Dodgers come to Minnesota this week, they are back on top of the NL West. New Dodgers legend Nomah! has resurrected his career as a 1st baseman in LA, batting .364/.427/.582, while the ghost of Aaron Sele is fooling the Majors' weaker half, somehow posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Eric Gagne is hurt again, but Takashi Saito has been a brilliant replacement. Some other new acquisitions like Jae Seo, Kenny Lofton, and Rafael Furcal have struggled, but no matter. Especially when a crop of homegrown youngsters like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Jason Repko, and Russell Martin have brought a new energy to the club.

Don't look now, though, but a healthy J.D. Drew is hitting .280/.373/.473, second on the team with 43.1 Runs Created, and Jeff Kent is still hitting .272/.378/.465 with 37 RC. Olmedo Saenz, another player DePodesta brought to the Dodgers, is batting .306/.333/.559. Derek Lowe comes into tonight's start with a 6-3 record and 2.90 ERA, and Brad Penny is 8-2 with a 3.06 ERA. By VORP, four of the five most valuable players on the Dodgers roster this year were acquired by Paul DePodesta. Meanwhile, Adrian Beltre is hitting .249/.313/.375 in the second year of a 5-year deal in Seattle, and Paul LoDuca is hitting .285/.325/.397 for the Mets and would be blocking either Russell Martin or Dioner Navarro if he were still in LA.

I hope that DePodesta feels vindicated, wherever he is today. His big moves have worked out for the club, and it seems there was nothing wrong with the Dodgers that a maturing crop of farm talent and one more big bat couldn't turn around and push the team in the right direction again. But I don't suppose the LA media will ever admit it.

Talking Extensions: Then & Now

2006-06-26T01:42:00.000-05:00

In early June 2003, the Twins were cruising along the top of the AL Central, with the Royals and White Sox at a comfortable distance behind, thanks in no small part to a lock-tight bullpen led by Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins. Everyday Eddie was headed for his second straight All-Star Game, and many people thought that Hawkins deserved to represent the league's setup men in the Mid-Summer Classic that season.

Each man being in the final year of his contract, they both took the opportunity to let it be known via the local media that their agents would very much like to discuss contract extensions with the Twins GM. When Terry Ryan flatly replied that nothing would be negotiated until after the season, the two ace relievers took it a bit hard. They felt a mite insulted.

Shortly thereafter, the team took a nosedive that almost spoiled the season, and you may remember that the press blamed Eddie & LaTroy for spoiling the perfect balance of brotherhood in the clubhouse. They were Bad Guys. Selfish. It was, more or less, their fault that the Twins fell in the tank and nearly drowned, until Shannon Stewart arrived to show the hitters how to work the count, told Gardy to leave Johan Santana in the rotation if he knew what was good for him, and restored harmony to the clubhouse just in time to lead the team to another division title.

That is, and forever shall be, the Official Story of the 2003 Season.

Now in the 2006 season, after a rough and terribly depressing couple months to start, the Twins are riding a hot streak and inspiring some hopes amongst the faithful for another second half surge to claim a postseason berth. No great thanks to a certain Centerfielder hitting .264/.340/.421 on the season and whose bat has been generally missing in action while the young bucks have carried the fight of late. Torii Hunter is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, however, with only a $12 million option for 2007 remaining, so he's used the occasion of his team's hot streak to openly talk about being traded to a team like the Red Sox, or else entertain offers from the Twins for a fat extension of another 5-6 years.

Hunter told Jim Souhan in the Strib:

If the Twins aren't looking to sign him to a long-term deal that will ensure he'll play in the new Twins ballpark set to open in 2010, he isn't interested in signing a contract extension.
"It's got to make sense," he said, in his most detailed comments on his status. "If I'm here to play in that new stadium for two years, yes, I would do it. But if I'm not, if I'm just here until the stadium, no, that's stupid.
"I already don't like the Dome, so I'm not going to get used. It's got to be a long-term deal. For me to be here it's got to be five or six years."

So does Souhan call out Torii on his timing or motives? Is Torii a Bad Guy for thinking only about himself when his team, the team he's supposed to be leading as one of its veterans of senior rank, is playing so well and yet still has more than half the season to play?

Well, what do you think?

Go read his column for yourself, or check out the SBG blog for a rundown of some choice quotes.

I love it when Souhan praises Hunter for his engaging personality and accessibility, as well as the way he plays all-out in the field, and then in the next sentence writes, "He's the guy who took it upon himself to take a swing at Justin Morneau last year, even if he did end up hitting Nick Punto," like it's just one more of his most admirable qualities.

Of course he also boosts the idea that the Twins may have to sign Hunter for another 5 years or else "face the perception that they just received approval of a new stadium and yet are too cheap to keep their best players." Oh, the guilt. That's just low, like a sucker-punch that ends up hitting Nick Punto. Anything but that, Jimmy.

Look, Torii Hunter will turn 36 in July of the 2011 season. He's admitting now that he has chronic pain in his back, hamstrings, and ankle, and keep in mind that he would have three and a half more seasons running on the dome turf he hates before the new park opens. Even at this moment, he is no longer one of the team's very "best players." Just think of what kind of shape he might be in, or what he could possibly still mean to the team, in another few years.

I was in the Northwest when the Mariners traded Randy Johnson even while their new ballpark was under construction, then I witnessed the club trade Ken Griffey, Jr. in the winter after Safeco Field opened, and then lose Alex Rodriguez to a division rival one year later. There were hard feelings, questions about the direction of the franchise, and accusations that the front office lacked the commitment to winning and keeping its best players. That was a loss of three genuine superstars, future Hall of Famers at the top of their game, and the club didn't have a farm system ready to supply replacements. Yet the club survived, even thrived with a new set of stars and popular favorites on the roster.

The M's drew more than 40-thousand per game in each of the three seasons after A-Rod left, and still drew a gate ranked in the Top 4 of AL clubs in 2004-5, despite last place finishes. Even now, while the team is below .500 for the 3rd season in a row, the attendance in Seattle rates 6th in the AL, slightly lagging behind Texas, and averages a few-thousand more per game than the Twins are drawing.

Losing Torii Hunter will not drive away the fans. People will come out and tune in to the games so long as there is something to hold their interest, and a winning team led by Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau will do the trick nicely. The decision on whether to keep Torii Hunter should be based on nothing but his expected value on the field over the life of his next contract.

How much is he going to help the Twins win over the next five years, relative to how much money it will take to keep him?

In a period when the club will also have to settle new deals to lock up Santana, Liriano, Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel, would it be wise to be committed to Hunter at market rates until he's 36 years old?

Calling in a Favor

2006-06-16T19:17:00.000-05:00

Ring*Ring*Ring

WK: If this is Kenny from the 407, I told you, I'll see you this afternoon at the ballpark.

TR: Shwa? Wayne? Hey, this is your old buddy, Terry.

WK: Terry who?

TR: Terry Ryan.

WK: Terry from the 612! Que pasa?

TR: Well, you know. Just keepin' it real. Got a project ahead of us. We're scrapping Plan A this week and we'll see what the kids can do the rest of the way. But now I got a little logjam problem and need to swing a deal.

WK: Sure, we could use a reliever to replace Weathers. You want a prospect for Nathan or Rincon?

TR: No, no.... I need to call in a favor. I think you owe me one, for the way the Batista deal went down....

WK: Dude, I made a careful point of negotiating a non-guaranteed contract with him there. You never thought I might have done that for a reason? (Laughs.)

TR: Come on, Wayne. We're friends, right? Remember all those scouting trips we took together, all the nights we shared the floor in Carl's apartment down in Fort Myers, all that Caribbean rum?

WK: Yeah, yeah. We had some good times, boss. OK, you did put in a good word for me when I interviewed here... what do you need?

TR: Like I said, I got a logjam on the roster. We called up Bartlett this week...

WK: FINALLY.

TR: Yeah, I know. I should never listen to Gardy... So now we have too many middle infielders on the roster, Castro's benched, and I'd like to move him out before that turns into a real problem. Could you use another middle infielder?

WK: Um, not especially. After Lopez & Phillips, we already have three other guys who can play SS or 2B.

TR: Wayne, remember the time we were down in Venezuela and your wife called....

WK: Right, what do you need in return?

TR: You got any toolsy kids in Class A who aren't hitting a lick this spring?

WK: Who doesn't? You got a name in mind?

TR: How about that Roberts kid in Sarasota? He's not hitting, but he looks fast.

WK: Yeah, OK. But this is the last time we mention the trip to Venezuela, right?

TR: OK, scout's honor. We got a deal?

WK: Done. Just draw up the papers and fax 'em over.

TR: Good to talk to you again, Wayne. Say hi to the family for me, and good luck fighting off the Cards the rest of the way!

WK: Thanks, Terry. Good luck with the rebuild; and when you're ready to trade Lohse or Silva, don't let me be the first guy you call, OK?

TR: No prob. I appreciate what you're doing for me here. See you in Pittsburgh at the break?

WK: Not if I see you first! (Laughs.) Yeah, I'll be around. Let's have dinner. Take care.

TR: You, too. Bye.

Click.

So Long, Fat Tony. Hail to the New Twins!

2006-06-15T20:19:00.000-05:00

While Intern Snarky at GameDay registers his surprise at the lack of blog gloating about Tony Batista getting his pink slip Tuesday night, I haven't got around to even mentioning the news.

I suppose it's because the event seemed inevitable from the day Terry Ryan announced his commitment to the guy. I, and a number of others in the Twins online community, predicted the disaster. It was never a question of whether the dreams of 30 HR and 100 RBI out of the 7-spot would go bust, but when. To see that it took until June 13 for Twins management to admit its mistake does not make me feel giddy. It's more of a quiet relief that this depressing element in my life as a Twins fan is finally gone.

Aaron Gleeman recently wrote that the Twins management had been so rudderless, "either unable or unwilling to address the issues that have plagued the team since last season," that he realized he no longer cared about the team enough to write about the Twins every day. I reached that point last winter, after Batista had been signed and I read that the Twins could not trade for Koskie, or pursue any other upgrade, because the GM was committed to Batista and also Kyle Lohse.

Realizing that Terry Ryan had no intention of trading Lohse or Shannon Stewart, and that his plan to upgrade the worst offense in the AL stopped at acquiring Luis Castillo, Rondell White, and Tony Batista just gave me a great, dark braincloud. To see the club go on to jerk around Jason Bartlett, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Scott Baker in succession through the spring just made me feel more and more pessimistic, and less interested in keeping a regular blogging schedule.

Even losing teams can be entertaining and give a fan hope for the future. Supporting a losing team that wastes money on, and gives priority treatment to, mediocre or marginal veterans while running down its homegrown youth, the lifeblood of a franchise like the Twins, just feels pointless and depressing. Most days this spring, if I felt like saying anything about the Twins at all, I just felt like posting angry rants--usually spontaneously, when I'd come across some news or chatter on other sites like the SBG blog or the Bat Cave. It would feel cathartic to vent, but it wouldn't be fun to make a blog into a Daily Rant, and if I'm going to keep a regular blog schedule again, I'd like it to be fun.

I get no kick out of writing about Tony Batista, even when he's been designated for assignment.

I feel joy, however, in seeing Jason Bartlett called up and making an immediate impact, and in the news today that the Twins are showing some commitment to Bartlett by trading Juan Castro to the Reds.

I feel joy in seeing the Twins beat up on the Red Sox this week with the young guys leading the charge.

Jason Kubel this evening has hit his 3rd home run in as many days, has an 8-game hitting streak going, and is batting .351/.373/.649 (thru the 6th inning tonight) since becoming part of the regular lineup on May 29. The performances of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Santana, Liriano, and Nathan can also make me giddy. This season I've been rooting for my Twins off the à la carte menu, and it feels good to see my guys, mainly the young guys who will form the future nucleus of the team, getting a chance to play and making good.

If you want gloating, just picture me doing a little dance every time Michael Cuddyer delivers a hit.

Tony Batista is just an unfortunate history I'd rather write off. I only hope that when management has to make decisions on the futures of other mediocre to marginal veterans on the roster, Terry Ryan won't forget the lessons he should have learned from Batista and the other moves he made, or failed to make, last winter.

Castro Traded

2006-06-15T17:11:00.000-05:00

The Juan Castro Era is over. Terry Ryan called in a favor from his old employee Wayne Krivsky, and sent The Leader to Cincinnati. The Twins get minor league OF Brandon Roberts, currently hitting .267/.325/.308 in about 263 PA's in High A Sarasota.

LINK

I guess this gives Rondell White a reprieve when Shannon Stewart comes off the DL.

Treats

2006-06-14T19:09:00.000-05:00

Last night's game just goes to show why you can't turn your back on the Twins, even when the team is in 4th place in mid-June, and management has been kafumbly in the dark for the last couple years and still drives you crazy by talking up the imminent return of Ruben Sierra as if he weren't 40 years old and a broken shadow even of the spectre who rose from the baseball graveyard 5 years ago.

When you see two aces matched on the marquee, you always hope to see something like last night's game, but how many times does the match-up fail to deliver the goods? But, just often enough, the game gives you a cookie to keep you coming back to the store. Last night, we got the whole dessert cart.

Johan Santana had a total mastery of his pitches. The change-up dropped under the Boston bats as sharply as I've ever seen him throw it. Some Red Sox players, especially Kevin Youkilis, were visibly angry at their inability to hit, or possibly even see, the pitch. In 8 innings, Santana finished with 13 strikeouts to no walks, giving up 5 hits and a single run on Jason Varitek's home run to Left-Center in the 7th. He finished his part of the evening by deftly snagging a comebacker up the middle hit by Coco Crisp, and firing a strike over 2nd base to start a double play.

Curt Schilling did his part, as well. He matched his counterpart with 8 innings, striking out 5, giving up 6 hits and a walk, and allowing just a run on Michael Cuddyer's solo shot to answer Varitek in the bottom of the 7th. Rookie hype Jonathan Papelbon lowered his ERA to 0.28 with 2 scoreless innings, too.

The Red Sox took the lead in the top of the 12th by scoring a run off Jesse Crain, but, in the end, the Twins won with Cuddyer getting drilled by a Julian Taverez cut-fastball that got away from him, a Justin Morneau ground-rule double that just escaped over the wall and held Cuddyer to 3rd base, an intentional walk to Torii Hunter, and then Justin Kubel's high fly to Rightfield that looked like a warning-track fly but kept carrying just beyond the Baggie. That's a game that not only paid immediate rewards to those dedicated Twins fans who came to the park or tuned in for the whole 12 innings, but it also gives a reason to feel hopeful about the club's future.

Johan Santana is still the best pitcher in the league, and still signed for at least two more seasons. Michael Cuddyer is finally enjoying his breakout season at age 27, batting .272/.363/.549, and should be an affordable asset to the Twins for at least the next few years. Justin Morneau has been showing better judgment at the plate lately, now hitting .263/.321/.507 and on pace to hit 38 HR with 127 RBI. Joe Mauer, of course, is the best Catcher in the league, behind the plate and at bat. At age 23, he's hitting .381/.443/.530. And last night's hero, the rookie Jason Kubel, has been settling into a groove lately. Since he's been part of the regular lineup, dating to May 29, Kubel has hit .353/.365/.569 with 3 HR and 11 RBI in 13 games (12 starts). The nucleus is here, beating the Red Sox in grand style last night, and of course I haven't even mentioned Francisco Liriano--but only because he didn't play a part in the victory of the moment.

To make matters even better, the only expensive commitments on the club books for next season are Santana's $13 million and closer Joe Nathan's $5.25 million. Terry Ryan can buy out Torii Hunter's option for $2 million, he can buy out Rondell White for $750K, he can buy out Carols Silva's option for $100K, and he can buy out Luis "The Gimp" Castillo for $500K as long as he doesn't reach an unspecified threshold of plate appearances. With luck, he may get to trade Castillo in July and be rid of the problem. If the GM plays his cards right, he will have an opportunity to build a fresh, stronger cast of players to compliment the young stars already under club control.

Considering how Terry Ryan has played his hands the last couple years, I'm not giddy with unbridled optimism about what lays in store for the club. But when I see the Twins nucleus play a game like the one last night, a game I stayed up two hours past my bedtime to watch on tape until the end because I was too excited to go to sleep, I can't help but feel like letting bygones be, even if only for a little while.

Neshek

2006-06-09T22:14:00.000-05:00

So, Rochester reliever Pat Neshek didn't get the call to replace Matt Guerrier on the Twins roster (while Matt's out with a broken thumb). That call went to Kyle Lohse, who had been serving time in AAA as punishment for a bad attitude and probably would have been buried there until Terry Ryan could find a taker for him, if not for this turn of fortune. However, Neshek hasn't been left empty-handed. Kyle was thoughtful enough to leave his Red Wings cap with Pat--which you can now win, if you can answer a special trivia question. Good luck!

It's too bad for Neshek that he didn't get called up this week to show what he can do, but I don't think it will matter much to him or the organization in the long run. He's a righthanded reliever with a funky delivery who has posted a 2.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an eye-popping 73 strikeouts to 12 walks in 44 innings. However, reports indicate that while he has dominated righty batters this season, he has been vulnerable to getting hurt by lefties. Through June 6, lefty batters had hit .273/.310/.491 against Neshek, in contrast to the sickly .133/.198/.204 line by righty batters.

Minor league relief pitchers usually come with a limited ceiling, anyway; the kids with the best stuff are developed as starting pitchers. If a young pitcher is put in the bullpen because he lacks the stuff to get through a minor league order more than once, what can you expect to happen when major leaguers get a read on him? If Neshek particularly needs his manager to carefully pick favorable righty-righty matchups for him, he also would seem poorly suited for middle relief duty or the Twins manager, who likes his relievers to start a fresh inning and go on to finish the frame whenever possible.

Meanwhile, the club still needs to showcase Kyle Lohse for a trade, or figure out a way to get some value out of him and his $4 million contract. I could see him either doing very well in a middle relief/set-up role, or else possibly redeeming himself as Boof Bonser's replacement in the rotation. Redeeming himself at least long enough to grease the wheels of the trade machinery, perhaps. And when either Lohse is traded or someone else gets hurt or needs remedial work in the minors, Neshek may yet get his audition for the big time.

Urgency, Focus, Leadership

2006-06-09T16:34:00.000-05:00

This is a sequence of screen shots from the 1st inning of Wednesday night's game in Seattle, showing Jose Lopez "stealing 2nd base"...

Here you can see the ball arriving by looking above Juan Castro. Note that Lopez isn't even in the shot.

Lopez begins his slide, but the ball is nearly entering Castro's glove, on target. A perfect throw by Joe Mauer.

The ball is in Castro's glove. Lopez isn't even within 5 feet of the bag, yet. Easy out!

Somehow, the ball pops loose...

It deflects away, while Lopez still isn't within a yard of the bag...

And finally the ball skips away. Credit Jose Lopez with a stolen base!

Yeah, spit in the glove, buddy. That should take care of the problem.

I think he looks like he wants to be here....

More Fun with Dick & Bert

2006-06-02T17:37:00.000-05:00

Transcripting some choice commentary by the Twins TV broadcast team Thursday night:

2nd inning

BERT: The Twins have a very good hitting team, but when you're always 3 runs behind, it put a lot of pressure on the offense in April.

Tony Batista up to bat...

DICK: Through 2 months of the season, I think it's safe to say, Bert, that Batista has probably given the Twins what they were anticipating. (Pitch:) A pop-up to short Center. In fact, it's behind the 2nd base bag.

Frank Thomas up to bat in the bottom of the inning...

DICK: As the Twins were in the market during the offseason for some help in the DH spot, Thomas was one of the names considered. And Thomas has hit some home runs, he's hit 11 of them, but that's about all he's done. (Two pitches later:) Thomas with 34 hits, 11 home runs, 3 doubles. That's hit a long way. Number twelve for Frank Thomas.

3rd inning, after Torii Hunter has caught a ball on the warning track

BERT: Well, a lot of room in Oakland. We talked about the foul territory, 400 feet to straightaway Center.... (Note: 400 feet is the standard minimum distance to the fence in straight Centerfield in the majors. It's 408 feet in the Metrodome. So at home, Hunter would have tracked down the fly before stepping within 5 feet of the warning track.)

4th inning

DICK: We were talking about Scott Baker and his start the other night. Bonser works at such, more of a rapid pace. We talked about Baker and his lack of tempo; Bonser seems to have it.

BERT: I think that goes with a lot of confidence too, Dick. Sometimes when you feel like you're struggling out there, you may take a little more time. And that's one thing that Scott Baker needs to do, going back to Rochester, is find that confidence again.

I don't suppose it's occurred to either one of them, how Baker's confidence might have been undermined.

5th inning

DICK: Talking about Batista before... He came to the Twins and, I think, has delivered as advertised. He's fielded his position to the point where, if it's hit at him, he almost always makes the play. (Quick aside:) Does not have much range. And is on a pace now to hit 15 home runs and drive in 60-some runs. And the average coming into the game at about .250, about, I think, what the Twins were expecting.

BERT: Yeah, consistency playing 3rd base, and occasional power. And that's what Batista provides.

6th inning

After Bonser began the inning by hitting Jason Kendall with a pitch and then grooving a fastball which Mark Kotsay smacked over the Rightfield wall, there was a curious lack of criticism of Bonser for giving a free pass to the leadoff batter or leaving a meatball over the plate for Kotsay to savor. After a decent period of mourning had passed, however...

DICK: I don't know... In trying to summarize what Bonser has done here, I guess the word that comes to my mind is that he's been aggressive. He's thrown strikes, he's gotten ahead of hitters, he hasn't dawdled on the mound at all. He looks very much like a guy who belongs in a major league rotation.

BERT: Well, he wants to be here....

Oh, so that's the secret!

7th inning, picking up the theme

DICK: He just looks like he belongs, his expression and the way he carries himself out there.

BERT: He took a little walk right there, a little upset at himself, maybe, but right back on that rubber.

DICK: And he delivers a strike to fill the count on Johnson. It's a matter of pride if you're coming through the Twins system, if you can pitch this deep into a ballgame and not issue a walk. I'm sure that's the last thing he wants to do here in the 7th. (Pitch:) Johnson touches one off. It's high, and it's deep, and it's gone. The third home run allowed by Boof Bonser.....

Slow Drag

2006-06-02T04:33:00.000-05:00

As I pointed out before, the pace of games during Scott Baker's starts suddenly became a topic of great interest to Dick & Bert the other night in Anaheim, thanks to an inside tip from Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. As the Twins' TV broadcast team watched Boof "Call Me Bail" Bonser cruise along in Oakland last night, they couldn't praise him enough for striking such a refreshing contrast to Baker's pacing. So I decided to look up just how long Baker's starts have been dragging through the night.

These lines show the date, opponent, opposing starter, final score, Baker's innings pitched, his final pitch count, and time of game.

4/8 at CLE, J. Johnson, 3-0 L, 4.1, 88 pc, 2:31
4/14 vs. NYY, Mussina, 5-1 W, 7 IP, 92 pc, 2:50
4/20 vs. LAA, H. Carrasco, 6-4 L, 5 IP, 99 pc, 3:08
4/26 at KCR, R. Hernandez, 3-1 L, 7 IP, 95 pc, 2:07
5/1 vs. SEA, Pineiro, 8-2 L, 5.1 IP, 101 pc, 2:32
5/6 vs. DET, Bonderman, 7-6 W, 6 IP, 96 pc, 2:41
5/15 vs. CWS, F. Garcia, 7-3 L, 4.2 IP, 88 pc, 3:04
5/20 at MIL, B. Hendrickson, 16-10 W, 5 IP, 107 pc, 3:57
5/30 at LAA, Weaver, 6-3 L, 4.2 IP, 97 pc, 2:33

Time of Game is a rough gauge, for sure, because the opposing pitchers, how long Baker lasted, the final score, whether it was a home or road game, and the length and frequency of Gardenhire's tantrums in protest of an umpiring decision could also play a factor in the time it takes to play. But I think it's enough to address the contention that Baker made his starts drag. We can see there that he never was knocked out terribly early, he always lasted into the 5th inning or longer and delivered a full workload of pitches, so he always had a significant measure of control over how long the game would last. If he has a habit of dawdling, I'd expect to see a number of games in his log pushing three and a half hours. Yet it doesn't look like Baker's starts dragged on especially long, does it? By my figuring, that's 2:49 on average.

The one especially long game in his log was a 16-10 victory on the road, so you'd expect it to take awhile to play out, and here's Baker's line in that game: 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 5 IP. Not bad on a day when baseballs were flying all over the yard, and I'd say those K/BB numbers look very encouraging, even exciting. Yet he was skipped the next time through the rotation.

As a matter of fact, I'd like to point out that Baker had a 4.67 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts to 4 walks in 34.2 IP and 6 starts after his fine outing against Detroit (4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR, 6 IP) on May 6. Look over those numbers again, if you need a moment. That's a very encouraging beginning to the season, wouldn't you say? Does that seem like a kid on the fast track back to Rochester?

From there, Baker didn't pitch again for 9 days, when the White Sox (currently 3rd in runs scored) cuffed him around and reminded everyone who's a kid finding his way and who is the World Series Champion. His next start came in its regular turn, and Baker beat the Brewers on the road. Then he didn't pitch again for 10 days, while rumors of Carlos Silva's imminent return to the rotation swirled around the media (and probably the clubhouse), when he was knocked out in the 5th inning and labeled a failure who needs some work and confidence restoration at AAA.

Does anything about that sequence in May strike you as odd or funny?

By the way, Carlos Silva lost his rotation spot when the White Sox shelled him on May 14, driving his ERA up to 8.80, and he made his first appearance out of the bullpen on May 18. So while Silva was busy restoring his standing with the manager, Scott Baker had all of two starts: the fine outing for the Win in Milwaukee, and the other night in Anaheim when he was Dead Man Walking.

Is Scott Baker in AAA now because he blew this opportunity, or because the manager needed to get Carlos Silva back in the rotation, like, right now?

I know my answer. Tell me yours.

Fire in the Belly

2006-06-01T04:24:00.000-05:00

Dick & Bert talking during the at-bat by the Twins substitute Shortstop Nick Punto in the 2nd inning Wednesday night:

BERT: Bartlett's hitting well in Rochester, hitting over .300, but you mentioned the other night Ron Gardenhire saying they just have not seen that leadership....

DICK: "Fire in the belly," or whatever they're looking for from him. 3-2 to Punto with Ford on deck....

BERT: You know, the old "fire in the belly," that's something that sometimes, Dick, you just can't, you can't put it in somebody. I mean, it's gotta come from within. And you hope that the more playing time that Jason Bartlett gets, that fire will be there. But a lot of guys, like Garret Anderson, that's just the way he plays.

DICK: Punto strikes out to end the inning....

The regular Twins Shortstop Juan Castro fielding a pop-up in the 7th inning Tuesday night:

Not Bad, Kiddo. For Pitching with a Knife in Your Back.

2006-05-30T22:24:00.000-05:00

They really have it in for Scott Baker.

Listening to Dick & Bert in the 1st inning tonight, you would think that this season so far has been nothing but a disaster for Scott Baker. He has a problem with leaving pitches "up in the zone" like no other pitcher you've seen, and every inning in which he takes the mound feels like an interminable wait in the dentist's chair.

Oh, didn't you know? Baker has an awful tendency to work at a snail's pace, or so they say. Dick even let slip (ooops!) a conversation he had with Gardy today around the batting cages, where the Twins manager confided that during Baker starts it feels like the team always spends 5 minutes in the dugout and 15 minutes on the field. Don't tell anyone else. I'm sure that was supposed to be a secret.

Never mind that this observation may be a more damning indictment of the Twins offense than of Scott Baker. No, the point is, our boy seems to share Jason Bartlett's chronic affliction of "a lack of urgency." (In case you haven't heard that bit of inside gossip, that's Terry Ryan's latest excuse for keeping Bartlett on the farm.) Young Baker is not aggressive. He dawdles. So when the rest of the team falls asleep and fails to score runs or catch the ball in the field, that's really Scott Baker's fault, too.

Is this any way to talk about one of your best prospects on the team, just because he's been going through some growing pains lately?

Of course, you know why it's being done. The team mouthpieces have been talking like Carlos Silva's return to the rotation was practically a done deal almost since the day he lost his spot. All he had to do was find that Magic Sinker again, and room would be cleared for him. After 5 appearances out of the bullpen, it's obvious from listening to Dick & Bert that Gardy has seen enough to know that Silva is ready for reinstatement. He just needs a kid to slip up, and clearly Scott Baker is the one presently marked to take the fall.

If I may pretend to be Jim Souhan for a moment: this organization jerks around more kids than The Zipper at the State Fair. (Hey-oooooooh!) What's one more on the old Tilt-a-Whirl, eh?

Seriously, it's not right. And it's particularly sad to hear Bert Blyleven, who should know better, reduced to characterizing any pitch above the belt that gets hit to a hole in the defense as another Scott Baker mistake. In the 1st inning tonight, Baker threw a pitch up & in to Orlando Cabrera, which Bert would normally praise as just the sort of thing a pitcher needs to do in order to keep the batters off-balance. In this case, however, Cabrera fought off the pitch for a bloop-double up the line, so it became an object lesson in what happens when Scott Baker leaves his pitches up. Shortly afterwards, I think Dick brought up his inside dope on the kid's slow pacing.

It's not right, and you can see it's getting back to Baker, too. When he came off the field after that inning, he looked like he had 50 pounds strapped to his back. He knows.

One might wonder how the manager is helping Baker by encouraging all this negative talk which could only be dispelled by near perfection for a string of outings in the next month, but then is helping Baker really the point here?

I see now that Baker has been chased from the game after giving up 4 runs in the 5th inning, and that's likely the justification Gardy will need to announce that Silva will replace Baker in the rotation. If he doesn't tell the media tonight, I expect him to announce the change within a couple days. Really, though, it hardly mattered whether Baker gave up that homer to Juan Rivera tonight or stumbled in his next turn, or maybe the turn after that. You could tell by listening to Dick & Bert in the 1st inning, the kid was a marked man even before the game began.

Another Thousand Words

2006-05-25T23:13:00.000-05:00

Minnesota Twins pitcher Brad Radke tosses a towel after being replaced by Matt Guerrier during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Indians in Minneapolis, Wednesday, May 24, 2006. Radke gave up 6 runs and 11 hits as the Indians went on to shut out the Twins 11-0.
(AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

Notes from Underground on the New Ballpark

2006-05-23T03:06:00.000-05:00

Most Twins fans are celebrating the news of the Twins ballpark plan finally passing the state legislature last weekend, but I have mixed feelings about it. Like I said on Batgirl's site: by this point, I feel a bit like I've been served with a juicy Polish sausage--after I've been working a long shift at the Hormel factory. I've seen too much of what goes into it to really savor the meal.

On the one hand, outdoor baseball. I'm generally in favor of it.

On the other hand, it's too bad that the deal finally pushed through because some politicians had enough of their arms getting twisted. From what I've heard, it's essentially the same plan that wasn't good enough last year. Did the club or Hennepin County make any substantial changes to their proposal this time around?

I would have liked to see the club make more concessions to the public by offering a greater share of the profits generated within the ballpark. I don't think that happened. Now I see a minor groundswell in the online Twins fan community to get the park named after Kirby Puckett. My friends, my poor, naive dears. That is so sweet. So sweet to believe that Carl Pohlad would let sentiment get in the way of a $40 million windfall, to dream that he might actually give a damn about your wishes. Have you forgotten who you're dealing with? Did you think that any of this is really about you?

No, I'm sorry. The ballpark will not be named after Kirby, Carew, or the Killer. If I had my way, it might be called El Palacio Presidencial with each gate posted by a regimental guard who would salute the fans with cries of ¡Viva Santana! every 15 minutes on gamedays. Oh, and Gameday would be the official program, sold inside as well as outside the park. But that will not be happening, either.

The Twins didn't insist on owning the naming rights for nothing. Their marketing people may tease you with rumors of names like Puckett Park, or maybe something to honor Carl's late wife Eloise, just so you know they have a heart and gave the notion some serious consideration. But in the end, some local corporation is going to write a fat check and the place is going to be named after a medical research company, a bank, a chain of electronics stores, Post-It notes, or maybe Spam.

For those who haven't already left in tears, I'll make a final prediction here: by 2015, most of the Twins promises related to the new ballpark will prove to be hollow. The dreams of local economic development, an influx of free-spending fans who keep coming back just to feel the thrill of outdoor baseball, and a payroll that lets the GM roll with the big boys... poof. It won't happen; the histories of such projects in other cities typically show a lack of longterm benefits either to the local economy, the box office, or a team's payroll. I expect there will be crying about the location, the crowded transportation access, and the lack of a roof on those dates when it's too cold, too wet, or unbearably hot and humid, as well. Even now, the Twins probably have a contingency plan to stir up the cries to retrofit the park with a roof, circa 2013, if only someone else could step up to pay for it, of course.

But, despite my mood, I hope that the committed baseball fans in Minnesota are left with a first-class ballpark to enjoy. If it can't be Camden Yards, I'm encouraged to see that the early artist renderings indicate that the idea men have something better in mind than Miller Park. As long as they don't try to copy that monstrosity in any way, the place should be alright. After all we've been through, isn't that the least we could expect? It's all most of us wanted, really. A nice spot outside that's better than what they got in Milwaukee.

Carl, Jerry, Dave. Dick & Bert. You got your funding.

Now don't fuck it up.

What's Dubya Thinking?

2006-05-16T15:01:00.000-05:00

This is the President stepping to his podium, as he's about to deny the news that the government is broadly monitoring domestic phone calls and keeping a secret database of Americans' phone records.

Look at those eyes.

What's Gardy Thinking?

2006-05-15T05:08:00.000-05:00

Caption Me

2006-04-28T23:49:00.000-05:00

(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

I hope to start blogging again this weekend, but right now, this about says it all.

The Secret of Frisco's Success

2006-04-10T03:41:00.000-05:00

Brace yourself. For what I'm about to show you may shock you to the core and shake your faith in our American institutions, the foundations of our democracy, and the integrity of our greatest game. As a Twins fan, it may lead to long nights of soul-searching and hard looks into the mirror.

Parents, you may need to hold a family meeting to talk about this. Your children may have a lot of questions, like, Is it okay to cheer for the Twins even if they're cheaters? I don't envy you; I don't know the answer to that. For some innocent young cherubs, professional counseling may be needed to handle that kind of existential crisis.

Okay, you've been warned. Now...

While watching Francisco Liriano pitch in Saturday's game in Cleveland, during the 7th inning I noticed him blowing on the ball several times while standing on the mound. I wish it were not so, but, look, I collected photographic proof....

See:

Now, I realize that the pitchers had permission to blow on their hands last Saturday because of the nippy weather, and I'd hate to get young Frisco into any hot water, but I still gotta wonder: even when it's cold, isn't blowing directly onto the ball still illegal? You can't throw spitters just because there's a chill in the air, can you?

Yet here he is, blowing on the baseball:

And here he is, doing it again!

These are just four instances I photographed while Liriano was pitching to Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner. Who knows how much cheating might be uncovered if George Mitchell took an interest. Hey, Patrick Fitzgerald: you got five minutes? This could be serious!

Really, what do we tell the children?!? I wish I had the answers.

Godspeed, and no breathalyzer jokes, please.

Bartlett Assigned to Oubliette

2006-04-05T19:41:00.000-05:00

ST. PAUL, MN -- The Minnesota Twins today designated Jason Bartlett, unrepentant since his demotion to AAA Rochester, for assignment inside an oubliette at an undisclosed location where team officials vow he will stay for at least 15 days "to think about what he's done."

"Last year we asked him to work on his defense, and we recognize he made some progress there," said Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. "I keep hearing about how he hit .382 in camp too, after knocking the ball around pretty good in Rochester last season, and people want to know what the kid has to do to beat out Juan Castro for a job. To them I want to say, performance isn't everything."

Gardenhoggle continued, "Like, there is a right way and a wrong way to put on the Twins uniform. There's a certain way the Shortstop has to signal '2 outs' to the other fielders--you wiggle the pointer finger and the pinkie so there's a clear distinction between 1 and 2 outs. The kid tends to slip into the habit of signaling like he's putting up bunny ears or flashing the peace sign.

"We also have our own way we like to throw the ball Around the Horn. There are shower protocols. Things to remember, like what kind of music gets played in the clubhouse on Tuesdays, and where guys have their seats on the plane," Gardenhoser added.

"You know, who plays poker in the afternoon and who'd rather be left alone to review scouting reports or play GameBoy? It's hard for a youngster to keep it all straight and not step on any toes. Some kids don't seem to appreciate our sense of humor, like the hotfoot or the old peanut-butter-in-the-pants bit. They don't get into the spirit of the joke. The kid will learn, maybe, but he's not there yet."

Bartlett responded before beginning his new assignment, "They said something about learning leadership in Rochester, and wiggling my fingers the Twins Way? I don't know. I tell you what, I think I'm paying for the sins of some guys who came along before me. I know for a fact, I saw Rivas and Guzman get away with [shenanigans] you wouldn't believe--and did they ever get jerked around like this? Did they ever get banished to an oubliette?"

Twins GM Terry Ryan insists the assignment is for the youngster's own good. "We'll give him some time to think, some riddles to solve. Then all he has to do to get out is find his way to the center of the labyrinth, and remember that when we play Around the Horn the Shortstop throws the ball to 1st base, not 2nd base. Trust me, this will make him a better player in the long run.

"Meanwhile, we should consider ourselves blessed to have an experienced veteran like Juan Castro to fill the position again this season. It's guys like that who will make the difference in a pennant race, I'm sure you know. Best couple mil of Carl's money I ever spent, don't you think?"

Opening Day

2006-04-03T17:27:00.000-05:00

I have some thoughts on the Twins' final roster selections, but today I'm too happily preoccupied watching the all-day baseball broadcasts to bother pulling together a real entry.

The ice rink boards at the local park have been packed away, it's 48 degrees and sunny outside, I gots the door to the porch open, a cool drink in my hand, and I'm halfway to watching a half-dozen baseball games on the teevee before the night is through. Now ain't this cause for a National Holiday? Yee-haw.

The plight of Jason Bartlett can keep 'til tomorrow.

Meanwhile, you might skip on over to the Third Base Line blog, where I'm participating in the latest edition of Around the Horn. Check us out. We got this game of Shadowball down to both a science and an art form.

Going Once... Going Twice....

2006-03-31T22:42:00.000-06:00

What's a World Series championship ring worth to you?

Deadspin reports finding John Wetteland's 1996 Yankees championship ring up for bid on ebay (although I don't see Wetteland or the ring's original owner identified on the auction page itself).

EDIT: "Wetteland" is engraved on the side of the ring.

The starting bid is $2,000.

Bartlett to AAA

2006-03-31T22:41:00.000-06:00

The Twins announced this evening that Jason Bartlett has been optioned to AAA.

Reflexively, when I first heard the news, I felt like screaming until my head spun. Why? What does the poor kid have to do to convince Ron Gardenhire that he's better than Juan Castro?

However, a few moments later I found this note in a report at MLB.com:

OPENING DELAYED
Jason Bartlett will likely start the year on the 15-day disabled list due to a strained left hamstring. His status could very well depend on how well Castro is playing at the shortstop spot. If Castro plays well enough to keep the starting role, Bartlett could wind up back in Triple-A Rochester at the end of his disabled stint since he plays only the shortstop position.

So it seems that maybe Bartlett will go to Rochester to nurse a tender hamstring. I hope that's the explanation, and we'll be seeing Bartlett in the Twins starting lineup as soon as he's feeling well enough to play every day. Either that, or we can hope this is just Terry Ryan's idea of an April Fool's joke.

If there is any other reason behind the move... well, let's give Gardy the benefit of the doubt for once and not dwell on that possibility. It would be a shame to let such ugly speculation spoil a beautiful Spring weekend that brings us the opening of the baseball season.

Happy thoughts!

Spare the Rod, Already

2006-03-29T17:39:00.000-06:00

If you've been reading the papers or other blogs this week, you've seen how Ron Gardenhire continues to feed the press with discouraging remarks about SS Jason Bartlett, while talking up utility scrubs Juan Castro or Nick Punto like they're really viable candidates to play every day for a contending team starved for offense. Gardy does this even while Bartlett is hitting .387 (12-for-31) in camp. OK, 10 of those 12 hits are singles and the other two are doubles. Still, you'd think a boss might want to be encouraging a kid who is hitting .387--even if he knows that "spring training stats are meaningless."

As evidence that performance in camp doesn't necessarily correspond to the praise or criticism the Twins management doles out to its young charges, consider this item on Jason Kubel from Baseball America:

The Twins have been encouraged by outfielder Jason Kubel's big league camp. Kubel, who had reconstructive knee surgery after a collision with Tigers infielder Ryan Rabun during the Arizona Fall League two years ago, fought hard for a major league job this spring but is more likely to start the year at Triple-A Rochester. "He's made a lot of strides; really made up for a lot of lost time," [Twins minor league director of operations] Jim Rantz said. "We're certainly going to be cautious with Jason, but at this point he's still across the street (at big league camp)."

Kubel, who is being talked up as a possible starting RF to begin the season, particularly if Michael Cuddyer is on the Disabled List, is hitting .211 (8-for-38) with a .263 SLG in camp. Now, I don't mean to say that Gardy should start spreading pessimism about Kubel's future just because he's not hitting this spring. Kubel may need all the encouragement he can get right now, and maybe it'll goose Cuddyer and Stewart to hear the bosses talking up the kid who's coming up behind them too. But how do they justify the kid gloves treatment in this case, while at the same time the manager constantly gives the needle to a young Shortstop who not only is having a decent spring but is clearly the club's best available option at his position?

I don't care much whether he's had any mental lapses in the field this month. In 68 games at SS last season, Bartlett had a .979 Fielding Pct. (where the adjusted average was .972) and a 4.74 Range Factor (where the adjusted average was 4.17). He can field his position, and he's a better bat with greater potential than the utility hacks posing as his competition for the starting job. Let him know you're behind him, Mr. Manager, quit messing with his head, and let the kid play.

Shaking Off This Winter of Our Discontent

2006-03-23T02:19:00.000-06:00

From the Strib:

The Twins could buy out third baseman Tony Batista's contract for $312,500 next Tuesday. It won't happen. "Batista's doing fine," Terry Ryan said. "There will be some days where it doesn't look so good, but there also will be days like Saturday, when he makes an outstanding play and hits a home run."

Sigh.

It's quotes like this which make it hard to get revved up about the Twins, even as we get within a couple weeks of Opening Day. Just when the fantastic World Baseball Classic had me hyped about baseball again, I have to read a dispiriting quote like that.

Can anyone explain how the man in charge of the Minnesota Twins, a professional baseball franchise, actually thinks he can get a fresh bead on Tony Batista by watching him play practice games for a few weeks?

It's not as if Batista lacks a track record. We know he hit .263/.294/.463 in 591 PA's with the Hawks in Japan last year, .241/.272/.455 with the Expos in 2004, and .244/.309/.457 with the Orioles the year before that. We're talking about data covering 1911 plate appearances. That's 218 PA's more than Terry Ryan gave David Ortiz before cutting bait on him. Let that sink in.

We know what Tony Batista is capable of doing anymore. We don't need to watch him work out in Florida to know that he's going to have a lot of "days where it doesn't look so good," periodically interrupted by a home run. Who does the GM think he's kidding?

Is he kidding himself?

There are things I look forward to seeing from the Twins this season, particularly the progress of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Bartlett. I hope to see Michael Cuddyer stick in the regular lineup and finally make good on his potential. The promise of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Jason Kubel still piques my interest. Of course, there is still Johan Santana and Joe Nathan, Prez and VP, "Starting and Closing for America." Maybe Torii Hunter will feel inspired by all the young talent pushing him in his contract year, too.

There are players who should be fun to watch this year. But there are also problems with the lineup, the worst in the AL last year, which the GM failed to address, problems not likely to be solved by trading for a speedy singles hitter who had leg injuries last season (and is again already this spring), signing a washed-up out machine to play 3rd base and an injury-prone DH, and just hoping that everyone who disappointed in 2005 will happen to play better in 2006.

When a GM gives a non-guaranteed contract to a player who just washed out of the Japanese leagues and yet promises him a starting 3B job--not only that, but Ryan indicated more than once to the press that he promised Batista a starting job without any serious competition for it in camp--then it's hard not to get the impression that the club is stumbling in the dark while the man at the helm has no idea of where to go from here.

I wish I could say I expected the Twins to make another run at a division title and October baseball this year, but a repeat of last year's results seems more likely. Hopes of anything better are riding on nothing but a wing and a prayer.

Now that I've got that off my chest, maybe I can get past it and try to focus on the small pleasures we may have in store for us. We'll see what I can do to catch some sunshine and Spring Fever by next time....

Yanqui Go Home

2006-03-10T16:49:00.000-06:00

Interlude

2006-03-03T22:39:00.000-06:00

The blog has been dormant for most of the offseason; but, now that spring training has started, I might get back to writing about the Twins this weekend.

In the meantime, enjoy the following music videos, a couple of things besides baseball that make life beautiful.

Miles and Coltrane

Elis Regina

2006-01-06T03:15:00.000-06:00

Favorite Music of 2005

2006-01-06T02:59:00.000-06:00

I'm a sucker for year-end lists. If anyone wants to post lists of 2005 favorites--movies, books, TV shows, restaurants, or whatever--feel free. I'd like to read 'em. I especially love music, and year-end lists of music, so here are my Top 20 new releases of music from the past year.

1) M. Ward/ Transistor Radio
This record is like finding a radio in the attic that transmits from some decades back in time, from some other place, with each twist of the knob. It creates its own absorbing little world of whimsical folk country blues that's good either for a laugh, a drive around town, quiet late nights, or days when you just don't feel like getting out of bed. It speaks to me in so many ways. I just couldn't say enough good things about M. Ward's music.

2) Miles Davis/ The Cellar Door Sessions, 1970
A new release from the vaults documenting 6 sets from a live gig in Washington, DC, December 1970, while Miles and his band were inventing music of the future. Damn funkiest jazz-rock jam band there ever was. It still sounds brand-new but timeless today, like it could still yet be recorded tomorrow. So exciting. I can get lost in this music.

3) Thelonious Monk & John Coltrane/ At Carnegie Hall
A newly discovered tape from the Library of Congress archives, documenting a night in 1957 when Monk was on top of his game and Coltrane was justing coming into his own. A miracle.

4) The White Stripes/ Get Behind Me Satan
I wish more popular rock bands today had this much talent, this much ambition to explore their powers, and could have this much fun finding out where it all leads.

5) Bettye LaVette/ I've Got My Own Hell to Raise
A soul singer from Detroit, whose voice sounds weathered by long experience, complimented by minimalist arrangements that bring together influences and labels like black & white, country & blues, rock & soul, and she finally transcends them all. If you like the late period Johnny Cash records produced by Rick Rubin, or maybe covers of country songs by Ray Charles and Al Green, check this out.

6) Binary Dolls/ Too Much Thinking Sinks Ships
Really one of the most dynamic and surprising rock bands I've heard in recent years. Bound by no structures, and yet they have hooks and melodies that I hear in my sleep. I hope they win over the world someday.

7) Daddy G/ DJ Kicks
A former member of Massive Attack compiles a mix of his favorite R&B and reggae tracks. This ruled my summer.

8) Wilco/ Kicking Television: Live in Chicago
I still miss Jay Bennett, but it's a great show that improves every song from A Ghost is Born. "Spiders (Kidsmoke)" just kills.

9) Amadou & Mariam/ Dimanche a Bamako
A duo from Mali. Afro-pop that pulls in influences from the Americas as well. Fun, inventive, makes me feel happy.

10) Brad Mehldau/ Day Is Done
The pianist hired himself a new drummer who gives his music more drive, a better focus. Still lyrical, impressionistic, delicate, beautiful. His cover of "Martha My Dear" is a favorite.

11) Sigur Rós/ Takk....
What kind of magical, alien land must give birth to musicians like Björk, múm, and Sigur Rós?

12) The Campbell Brothers/ Can You Feel It?
Sacred steel houserockin' music. If you like Robert Randolph & the Family Band or slide guitar in general, check this out.

13) Stereolab/ Oscillons from the Anti-Sun
A compilation of EP's and B-sides from one of my favorite bands. Never short for fresh sounds, weird beauty, or inspiration.

14) Thievery Corporation/ The Cosmic Game
The chill-out outernationalist musicologists return with more dub travelogues. Wayne Coyne from the Flaming Lips guests on the lead track. Not quite up to the level of their classic The Richest Man in Babylon, but still hits the spot.

15) Ben Harper/ Live at the Apollo
A concert with the Blind Boys of Alabama. Gospel soul.

16) Cannonball Adderley/ Money in the Pocket
A new discovery of Cannonball live in 1966. Brimming with soul and good feeling, as always.

17) Breakestra/ Hit the Floor
An old school funk party, y'all.

18) Keith Jarrett/ Radiance
Beautiful, reflective, intrepid, solo piano improvisations.

19) Cult Cargo: Belize City Boil Up
A compilation of singles from the Belize music scene. Right up your alley if you like reggae and other Caribbean music.

20) Jamiroquai/ Dynamite
Groovy '70s retro acid jazz. Probably their best since their '96 hit.

Iowa Kittens

2005-12-07T23:14:00.000-06:00

A few weeks ago, we were visiting folks on the farm in Iowa and met these kittens.

Cute they may be, but the farm already had its quota of cats necessary to keep the rodent population down, so these were deemed expendable. Even if they could survive the hard winter, the farmer figured he'd have to abandon them in a field or drown them in the spring. Well, how could we look into their eyes and just leave them to that fate? We had to take them home.

Since then, they've been staying in the back bedroom. They've had their first two sets of shots, they've been tested for feline leukemia and FIV, and they're doing fine.

The two kittens above are 5 months old, a boy (left) and a girl.

The boy is quite the calm, collected type. When his sisters may be carrying on to get food or attention, he's most likely to sit by and observe quietly. He can be playful, but he also enjoys sitting still with a person and chilling. With his thick, plushy fur, I think he'll grow up to be a nice lap kitty.

The little girl is quite bright, more adventurous and eager to explore. She's likes climbing up on my shoulders, and it's easy to get her to play with something simple like a string. When she winds down, though, she also likes being with a person. As I go to sleep, she often curls up on or right up next to me.

Below, she's playing with a tassle toy hanging from the door, next to her big sister in the background.

This is the big sister, in the picture below, who is 4 months older than the other two. She's probably the most directly affectionate of the three. When I walk into the room, she clamors for attention. But then when I lay down in bed, she tends to go underneath when she's ready to sleep. So I guess she likes her space and privacy, too. She seems especially adaptable to the other cats in the house. She may walk up to one to say hello, but, if the other cat hisses, she'll back off deferentially and go about her business elsewhere.

They're all great cats. They like people and are surprisingly easy to handle, considering how they were left alone outdoors most of the time in Iowa. We didn't even have trouble getting them to use the litter box. But, truthfully, since we already have four cats in the house, it would be a hardship if we kept all three of these kittens. So I'd like to ask for your help. If you'd like to adopt a kitten, or know someone who would be interested, please drop me a line.

You may contact me at frightwig71@yahoo.com.

Thanks.

Now Playing 2nd, Meet Luis the Third

2005-12-02T14:53:00.000-06:00

The Twins acquired 2nd baseman Luis Castillo from the Marlins today in exchange for pitching prospects Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. If this sort of deal had been made a couple years ago, I would have been thrilled. This sort of deal really should have been done to get a 2nd baseman back then. Is it what the team really needs now?

Well, Castillo is a switch-hitter, just turned 30, with a career batting line of .293/.370/.356. This past season, he hit .301/.391/.374 with splits of .423/.467/.649 in 120 plate appearances against lefty pitching, but .259/.368/.280 in 385 plate appearances against righties. That's pretty much in line with his 2002-4 averages, as well (.343/.403/.519 vs. LHP; .288/.373/.320 vs. RHP). So he gets on base to set the table nicely, but in about 75% of his plate appearances he has practically zero power.

His park-adjusted numbers cast him in a more favorable light. Considering that Pro Player Stadium significantly favors the pitchers, Castillo's .765 OPS comes out 8% better than the adjusted league average of .747. Baseball Prospectus credits him with a .281 EqA and a value of 25.7 Runs Above Replacement-Level at 2nd base in 2005, which rates 12th in the majors. By comparison, the whole combination of Luis Rodriguez, Bret Boone, Nick Punto, Luis Rivas, and Brent Abernathy were worth 8.6 Runs Above Replacement-Level. So all things remaining constant, Castillo would be a nice upgrade over the motley patchwork covering the Twins' hole at 2nd base this past season. It's probably worth a couple extra wins right there, before we even think about his Gold Glove track record on defense. Terry Ryan didn't have to give up any prime prospects to seal the deal, either. So why do I feel underwhelmed?

First of all, he's a 30 year-old player with zero power, whose career similarity comparables are Jerry Remy, Joey Cora, Fernando Vina, Tony Womack, and Mickey Morandini. Through age 29, his 5 closest comparables are Dave Cash, Willie Randolph, Steve Sax, Woody English, and Delino DeShields. No doubt you've heard of many of those guys, seen 'em play. Some were even very good players in their primes, but their stories after age 29 generally are not pretty. A lot of below-average bats, a lot of guys who were done--or all but--within a few years.

Dave Cash hit .252/.291/.315 (71 OPS+) at age 30, and was retired after two more years.

Willie Randolph hit .276/.382/.356 (106 OPS+) at 30, and had a couple more good years for the Yankees before a lousy year at 33 led to some ups & downs as a veteran journeyman serving 4 other teams in the final 4 years of his career.

Steve Sax was none other than Randolph's replacement in New York; and after posting a 113 OPS+ for the Yanks at age 29, he hit .260/.316/.325 (80 OPS+) at age 30. He rebounded with a pretty good year at 31, but his numbers quickly fell off a sheer cliff after that.

Woody English hit .247/.394/.297 (87 OPS+) in 64 games at age 30, and retired within 2 years after that.

Delino DeShields hit .264/.339/.364 (81 OPS+) at age 30, rebounded with a 110 OPS+, but played only 2 more subpar years after that.

It's not an inspiring group of forebearers.

Secondly, I'm not convinced that Castillo will be all that more valuable than Michael Cuddyer if he were put at 2nd base next year. Cuddyer hit .263/.330/.422 (98 OPS+) this past season, but .275/.344/.450 after his atrocious April. He's turning 27 next March, commonly a peak age for players, so there's a good chance he will build on the progress he showed after stumbling to start last season. I thought he showed quick improvement when given a chance to play 2nd base late in the 2004 season, as well. If the club would plug him in at 2B for next year, it's still a solid upgrade over Rivas and the other guys they've been trying there, and then Ryan still has $5 million and two more pitching prospects to go find an upgrade in Rightfield.

Is it worth $5 million to this club to have Luis Castillo rather than Cuddyer at 2nd base, or a bat with some pop in Rightfield?

My head isn't emphatically nodding yes. I hope the GM sees there's still a lot of work to be done to improve an offense that was, you may have heard, the absolute worst in the league. We'll see, but I'm inclined to believe this is Terry Ryan's big move. I expect we'll probably see a bargain veteran signed to play 3rd base, and maybe the club could bring in a Frank Thomas if he could be had on the cheap. Meanwhile, I'd guess Stewart and Hunter will be back at their respective outfield spots, with Cuddyer, Lew Ford, and Jason Kubel rotating between the OF and DH. Write in Morneau, Castillo, Bartlett, Mauer, and Bargain Vet 3B (Bill Mueller?), and there you have your 2006 Minnesota Twins lineup.

Can you feel the magic?

Sid's Scare Tactics Strike Again

2005-11-28T05:35:00.000-06:00

Sid Hartman writes:

Memo to Gov. Tim Pawlenty and other politicians who are negative about building stadiums: The presence of the Browns in town to face the Vikings today is a reminder of how the Cleveland area lost the Browns to Baltimore when nobody thought it would happen, lost its pro hockey team in a merger with the North Stars and also would have lost the Indians to this area in the late 1950s if a lease hadn't prevented them from moving. I spoke with my friend Art Modell last week -- he moved the Browns to Baltimore -- and he talked of "how frustrated you get not being able to make it financially and finally you say to yourself, 'I've had it,' and make the move." Yes, one of these days Carl Pohlad will reach that frustration level and the Twins will be gone.

So Sid wants us Twins fans to be scared because the Indians almost moved (to either Minnesota or Milwaukee) about 50 years ago, and the NHL couldn't make a last-place expansion hockey team work in Cleveland in the '70s? Even by the standards of shameless scare tactics, that's really scraping the barrel.

OK, the Browns leaving Cleveland came as a shock; but the story is a lot more complicated than 'owner gets frustrated with uncooperative government officials and finally has to leave.'
For starters, that Modell quote about how he couldn't make it financially in Cleveland is a load of crap.

Modell had free rent in Cleveland Stadium, he owned the luxury suites, and he took the profits from sub-leasing the stadium to the Indians and other special events. The city had offered to build him a domed stadium as part of the Gateway Complex. He didn't want to be part of it. He liked his sweet deal in Cleveland Stadium, he just wanted the city to pay for improvements to the old place, but he got angry when he lost some profits from the luxury suites after the Indians and other events moved to Jacobs Field. Within a couple years of that happening, he broke his lease to go to Baltimore.

Art Modell was the bad guy. Everybody knew it, and the NFL recognized it by arranging the deal that let Cleveland keep the Browns name, colors, and history and gave the city a team in the next expansion. Is that a cautionary tale for Twins fans--vile owner takes team away, but state gets new team bearing the old team's name, colors, and history within a few years?

Anyway, Modell could bolt to Baltimore because he found a city willing and eager to fork over a stadium deal even richer than the one he had in Cleveland. There is nothing of the kind tempting Pohlad to move the Twins out of Minnesota right now.

Sid, your little games are not helping. Shut up.

NLBM Honoring Santana

2005-11-23T16:21:00.000-06:00

In 2000, the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum established its Legacy Awards to honor its picks for the best players in baseball for the year. The awards are not restricted by race. Bob Kendrick, director of marketing for the museum, says, "Some people often ask, 'Do we only recognize black players or Latin players?' No. It would be doing an injustice to those guys in the Negro Leagues not to recognize the very best." For this past season, the museum is awarding the Oscar Charleston Legacy Awards, its MVP picks, to Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

In recognition of the best pitchers in each league, the Negro Leagues Museum is awarding the Satchel Paige Legacy Awards to Dontrelle Willis and Twins ace Johan Santana.

Minnesota athletics legend, and former Twin, Dave Winfield will also receive the John "Buck" O'Neill Award in recognition of his support of the NLBM.

Three cheers for these righteous picks. If you're in Kansas City, you definitely should visit the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. It's fun as well as informative, and you'll find some delicious soul food if you go eat at The Peach Tree down on the corner of the block, too. The awards ceremony will be held at the Gem Theater, across the street from the museum, on January 7. Dave Winfield is among those who have committed to attending the ceremony; but no word on whether Santana will be in the country then.

I Demand a Recall!

2005-11-11T23:30:00.000-06:00

ESPN.com ran a couple polls this week relevant to Johan Santana.

The first asks readers, "Which AL pitcher would you most want to anchor your team's rotation in 2006?" and gives the options of Santana, Bartolo Colon, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, and Randy Johnson.

The response from 38,883 voters to date:

Santana, 61.2%
Halladay, 14.9%
Buehrle, 10.8%
Colon, 6.8%
Johnson, 6.0%

The second poll asks, "Who is the best pitcher in baseball?" and gives the options of Santana, Colon, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, and Dontrelle Willis.

The response from 43,272 voters to date:

Santana, 47%
Oswalt, 18%
Carpenter, 16%
Willis, 15%
Colon, 4%

Santana is the favorite in 45 states and the international vote in this poll, including Minnesota, of course, where he is the pick of 87%. Carpenter is tops in Missouri and Arkansas. Oswalt is king in Texas, carries a bare plurality of 33% to Santana's 32% in Louisiana, and also can claim 8 of 18 voters in Wyoming so far. Colon carries no states. Even in California, Colon only has 14% of the vote while Santana has a plurality of 45%.

This follows the Internet Baseball Awards poll at Baseball Prospectus, in which 61% picked Santana as the top AL pitcher this season.

It's too bad we can't vote to recall the Cy Young and bounce the bad BBWAA voters like Dover, PA, bounced its crazy rogue school board. I mean it--why shouldn't there be a fan review of the results on MLB.com? When the BBWAA voters are so clearly out of touch that they can't see what is obvious to nearly everyone else who follows baseball, why should their decision be allowed to stand without some formal review in the internet age?

The newsmen don't know, but the little geeks understand

2005-11-09T20:38:00.000-06:00

Johan Santana's 2.87 ERA came within .01 runs of tying Kevin Millwood for tops in his league, and his 153 ERA+ was the best in the AL. He also led the league with a 0.971 WHIP and 238 strikeouts, while his 231.2 innings pitched was 2nd only to Mark Buehrle. The only AL pitcher who topped his 5.29 K/BB ratio was teammate Carlos Silva, whose walk rate of .43 per 9 IP shattered the modern record of .616 set by Babe Adams in 1920 and had not been topped by anyone since 1880--when a pitcher delivered from 50 feet and had to throw 8 balls to issue a walk. Carlos Silva deserves his own award just for that singular feat, but Santana just as clearly deserves the hardware recognizing the best pitcher in the AL. His 73 VORP score bears that out, as well: Mark Buehrle's 54.2 VORP is the next best in the American League.

But, Bartolo Colon racked up 21 Wins, so he gets the Cy Young Award with 17 of 28 first place votes. Santana finishes third in the voting, behind Mariano Rivera, with just 3 writers recognizing his superior excellence. But of course. Whaddya gonna do?

At least I had a voice in the Internet Baseball Awards balloting at Baseball Prospectus, where Santana was recognized as the top pitcher in the AL by 61% of the voters. He finished 8th in the MVP vote there, too. It won't go on his Hall of Fame plaque, but just the same it's nice to see him recognized by the fans who really know the game. Someday a change is gonna come in the corporate media, and it can't happen too soon.

A Pistol Hot Cup of Rhyme

2005-11-07T22:14:00.000-06:00

R.E.M.
Lifes Rich Pageant
IRS Records, 1986

This review of a record nearly 20 years old is written in response to SBG's thoughts on the Hindu Love Gods album at the Four Hoarsemen blog. Plus, this is infinitely more interesting to me right now than reviewing the Gold Glove winners, commenting on the trade rumors in Sid's column, or dignifying the "Vegas-resident Reggie Jackson would like to buy the Twins" story with any response here.

R.E.M. broke out of Athens, Georgia, in 1982 and charmed college radio listeners with the Chronic Town EP, followed the next year by the full-length Murmur. At a time when the commercial airwaves were ruled by wacky, New Wave pop acts from New York and England, or else bands like Journey and REO Speedwagon, R.E.M. came on like the shy, sensitive offspring of the Byrds and the Velvet Underground. These first couple records had an ethereal, ghostly vibe. Gothic and murky, with Michael Stipe's mumbling vocals layered low in the mix, interweaving with Mike Mills' vocal countermelodies, the music sounded very much outside of its time. Reckoning in 1984 had a brighter sound featuring Peter Buck's chiming guitar arpeggios which accentuated the Byrds influence and spawned a lasting genre of jangle-pop imitators. Still, what Stipe was apparently singing to himself, or what his cryptic lyrics were really about, often might be anyone's guess.

The next year the band travelled to England to record with Joe Boyd, producer of Fairport Convention and Nick Drake. By all accounts, the sessions were tense, the weather was dark and rainy, and the resulting music generally reflects that atmosphere. Addressing topics of Southern folklore and certain figures who had inspired Stipe, Fables of the Reconstruction often conveys a menacing sense of foreboding. While expanding the band's sound in some ways, the record perversely has the claustrophobic, even paranoid feeling of a group trapped inside, isolated in an alien land, and going stir crazy. To move forward, they would need to let in the light and get some air.

The band reconvened for the next record back in America with producer Don Gehman, who had been working with John Mellencamp on his American Fool and Scarecrow albums, and did them the favor of encouraging Stipe to project his voice, helping produce crisper arrangements, and unleashing the band to rock out.

Peter Buck opens Lifes Rich Pageant by playing a trademark jangly arpeggio, setting up the listener to expect the familiar comforts of R.E.M. only to be knocked back by the crack of drum, squaling feedback, and Stipe's burr of a voice growling, Birrrrdie in the hand/ For life's rich demands/ The insurgency began/ And you missed it.... It's an instant rush of adrenaline not unlike Honey Bunny jumping up on the table and threatening to execute every motherfucking last one of ya! just before Tarantino freezes the screen and wings a jolt of Dick Dale right upside your head. Throughout the record, from the get-go, the band sounds loose, confident, and thrilled to be having fun.

It's tempting to say that R.E.M. went back into the garage for this record--they even close with a rave-up cover tune with bassist Mike Mills on vocals--but this isn't the sound of a band regressing. The record still shows off Mills' melodic bass playing and some of the band's trademark of Mills singing a plaintive countermelody line behind Stipe's lead on the chorus--as in the single "Fall On Me." Mills plays some organ, accordian and piano on the album, Buck picks at his banjo and acoustic guitar, Stipe sings through a bullhorn on one track, and the final cut starts with a Godzilla toy warning the citizens of Tokyo of their imminent demise. ("...He is heading towards the city! AAAAARRRGGGHHH!") So they were in a mood to experiment and expand themselves.

Stipe is at the top of his lyrical game, often dealing with topical subjects with less cryptic imagery than before but still just evocative enough to only suggest at his intended meanings. Back in the day, I spent many an evening trying to decipher the codes of this record or else just smiling at the poetic sounds in the way Stipe strung words together. In later years, I wondered what the Michael Stipe of 1986 would have made of the lyricist who wrote "Everybody Hurts." Recoiled in horror, I would like to think.

The band on Lifes Rich Pageant seems incapable of anything so self-conscious and banal. Following their ordeal in England and possibly on the verge of breaking up, R.E.M. in '86 cut loose and went for broke. The group has cut several great records over the years, which may succeed on different levels, but none surpassing this one. If you care to go back to find R.E.M. at their hardest-rocking and most fun, start here.

Bedtime

2005-11-04T21:31:00.000-06:00

Settling down for the night...

A Hat-Tip to Ozzie

2005-10-28T05:52:00.000-05:00

While watching the final outs of the World Series this week, did you ever wonder what Ron Gardenhire would have made of Bobby Jenks?

Every time I saw the big rookie appear in this postseason, I thought of Gardy. Meanwhile, Ozzie Guillen earned my full respect as a manager. Whenever Ozzie needed a closer to lock up for the night, he signaled for the big widebody, a rookie who had been claimed off waivers last winter and pitched in AA Birmingham until July 5 of this season.

Ozzie had Dustin Hermanson available, a veteran who had saved 34 games with a 2.04 ERA for the Sox this season; and even if Hermanson had tweaked his back late in the season, as late as September 30 he still pitched 2 innings in a 3-2 win over Cleveland and apparently was healthy enough to stick on the playoff roster. Ozzie didn't use him in October, except to face 2 batters in the 8th inning of Game 3 of the Series.

Ozzie had El Duque, veteran of 13 postseason series and 4 World Series with the Yankees. A proven October performer with a 9-3 record and 2.65 ERA in the postseason. The man who shut down Boston for 3 innings in the 5-3, Game 3 ALDS win a couple weeks back, a game he practically saved in the 6th inning when he inherited loaded bases, no outs, a 4-3 score, Fenway in a frenzy, and he smothered the rally without allowing a run. Even with all that on his resume, he pitched in this World Series for just one inning, the 9th inning with the score knotted in Game 3.

Ozzie didn't fall back on those two or any other veterans in his bullpen when he needed someone to take it on home. Jenks blew a Save opportunity in Game 2 of the Series, allowing a couple runs when Jeff Bagwell singled to Center to lead off, Chris Burke walked, and both runners came home with a 2-out single laced to Leftfield by Jose Vizcaino, although Burke should have been out if not for a poor throw to the plate by Scott Podsednik. Still, Ozzie relied on Jenks to pitch 2 innings of Game 3, and he sent him out again in the 9th to wrap up a 1-0 lead in Game 4--with 88 years of frustrated history weighing on the rook's broad shoulders. There was no hand-wringing talk of how "this is not the place to test out a rookie pitcher." Because the manager trusted the kid's talent to shine through.

Ron Gardenhire doesn't have the sack to manage like that. Given the chance to show that kind of confidence in Jesse Crain last October, when he just needed 3 outs to take home a 2-0 series lead over the Yankees, Gardy held back the rookie with the 2.00 ERA and opted to send out his gassed closer for a third inning of work--and we know how that turned out. Crain only made a brief appearance in that series, facing two batters in the 6th inning of Game 3 after the Yankees had already rallied to a 5-1 lead.

In the ALDS the year before, Lew Ford saw one plate appearance--as a pinch-hitter against Mariano Rivera in Game 3--although the rookie had hit .329/.402/.575 down the stretch. For the 2002 playoffs, Gardy turned Johan Santana into a middle reliever and Kyle Lohse into persona non grata, although both had been aces in the rotation after the break. He also yanked the rookie Michael Cuddyer in the ALCS, after he'd won the Rightfield job with a hot bat down the stretch and ripped Oakland pitching in the prior playoff round, because he didn't like some routes Cuddyer ran under flyballs in Game 2 against the Angels. This is how Ron Gardenhire handles hot youngsters when his team gets to the postseason. They're either on the short leash, or they hardly get a chance to contribute at all.

The Minnesota Twins, because of their own payroll restrictions, must rely on hot rookies and other young talent to gain a competitive edge against richer clubs, but they're managed on the field by a man who doesn't trust youngsters who come to him without a pedigree. When his team makes it to the Oktoberfest tourney, the Twins manager talks about the importance of experience, an area where his team will always be outgunned at the end of the year, and he kicks his kids to the end of the bench like they're only there to audit the course.

Ozzie Guillen gets it. Gardy is more concerned with what he doesn't have, rather than making the most of what he does. He's an impediment to the club in that way, and that's the biggest reason why he's the wrong man for his job. If you don't see it now, it should be obvious to nearly everyone within a year or two. Until Terry Ryan sees it, I'll still support the team and hope for the best, but I don't expect the Minnesota Twins will ever win another World Series as long as Ron Gardenhire is managing the team.

New Hitting Coach

2005-10-27T07:17:00.000-05:00

The Pioneer Press reports that the Twins plan to name Joe Vavra, the organization's minor league field coordinator, as the new hitting coach, after Paul Molitor and Rod Carew turned down the job. The article says that Vavra has held his former job, "the top on-field position in the farm system," for 4 years, although I'm still not sure of what the minor league field coordinator actually does. From 1989-97, Vavra was a minor league manager in the Dodgers organization.

Good hire? Take the poll to the right.

Dougie Being Dougie

2005-10-27T00:45:00.000-05:00

I forgot to mention the funniest part about Reusse's column about the A.J. Edge. While Dougie Mint asserts that the Twins became "too nice" without A.J., notice how he also steps up to claim credit for giving A.J. the idea to sign with Chicago last winter:

"I told him, 'If you want to change the perception of yourself as a player, one team sticks out: the White Sox.' I said, 'No place were you hated more than in U.S. Cellular by the White Sox fans. If you can win over those fans, then everyone will realize people have the wrong idea about you as a player.' "

Oh, I don't know. The fans in Oakland really hated A.J., too.

Think Dougie is collecting a commission for that advice? Or maybe, for A.J., it's pro bono. I'm not sure I'd take career counselling from someone who had just managed to alienate himself from Boston fans and the Red Sox organization even while Red Sox Nation was drunk with joy last Fall. If you make a little girl cry on her birthday, after she's just been presented with a pony, can you call yourself qualified to give advice on organizing children's parties?

Now, apparently upset that Mets manager Willie Randolph auditioned new 1st basemen last month, Dougie is intent on setting fire to more bridges on his way out of New York, too.

"I don't know why they would pick up my option, but if they do, I might quit. I'm serious. I don't want to be back there."

Where else would he like to go? Hey, Minnesota suddenly looks real nice again.

"I always thought Minnesota was a great place to play. After a year with the Mets, an organization that doesn't have a clue, I know that for sure."

I don't know why he doesn't ask A.J. to put in a good word for him with his bosses in Chicago. He seems to think that's where a player's career can be reborn; or he did, once upon a time.

I should say that I am still a big Dougie Mint fan. His value as a Twin was generally underrated, and I enjoyed watching him play. His glib mouth never bothered me; I think his comments in the press are just part of the entertainment package. I even defended him when he said he wanted to keep his World Series souvenir. It probably wasn't his best move, but I figured it was his right. Whatever his faults may be, I still miss watching him play for the Twins.

Should the Twins have any real interest in bringing him back?

He hit just .240/.322/.407 for the Mets this season, posting a 4.30 RC/27 rate--the same as Michael Cuddyer. He had just 313 PA's in 87 games because of injuries and his late-season benching to make way for Mike Jacobs. He's 31 years old, turning 32 next June; considering his age and problems with nagging injuries, he's probably left his best seasons back in 2001 and 2003. Those are some reasons the Twins shouldn't spend any serious money to bring him back as a starting player.

However, his batting line this year was tarnished because he just struggled so badly in Shea Stadium. On the road, he hit a respectable .260/.329/.473 for the Mets. We know he's generally liked hitting in the Metrodome, too: he put up a .283/.387/.425 line in the dome from 2002-04, and .301/.370/.492 at home in 2001. I'm not saying he's the guy who will raise the moribund offense back to the heights of mediocrity again; but, in the right environment, he might be a productive help to a competitive club. Given a cheap, one-year trial deal, the Metrodome may bring out a little more life in his bat, yet.

I doubt it will happen, if only because Terry Ryan may want to avoid spooking Justin Morneau, and there's still no telling how Dougie might handle it if he's again relegated to part-timer status in midseason next year. Who knows, Doug might only want to come back because he thinks Morneau has flopped and left his old job open for him.

What do you think: if the realistic alternatives for help at 1B/DH are players like Olerud, Snow, Millar, Fick, and Saenz, would you welcome Doug Mientkiewicz coming back on a short-term, bargain contract?

At this point, I'd prefer Mark Sweeney or Erubiel Durazo, if not a trade for Lyle Overbay, but I think Dougie could be an acceptable secondary option.

A.J. Being A.J.

2005-10-24T05:34:00.000-05:00

I have to admit, I'm pulling for the White Sox to win the Series.

I've started each round thinking I'll just enjoy the games as a neutral observer, and before I know it, I find myself cheering for Chicago and my boy A.J. I've been pulling for him and the Sox in this postseason ever since I saw him hit the home run in the first game against Boston; and with all the controversy he left in his wake throughout the ALCS, it's been a fun reminder of why I used to enjoy him so much when he played for the Twins. Thanks to all the shenanigans and controversy, he's become quite the media celebrity all of a sudden.

Bill Simmons last week wrote:

Yet another question: Is A.J. Pierzynski the most annoying professional athlete in recent memory? He's like the Rick Barry of this generation -- everything he does seems annoying for some reason, even his interviews. You can see why the Giants and Twins couldn't stand him. I don't even think he's a bad guy, he's just one of Those Guys. If you played at a $25 table in Vegas with him, he seems like the guy who would say stuff like "Wow, you're way up right now, huh?" and scream "Whammy!" every time he was dealt a blackjack. And he wouldn't even know he was being annoying, so his friends would think of convoluted ways to ditch him, stuff like, "Hey, A.J., I'm gonna go walk around, get some air, I'll be back in 10 minutes" ... and then they would scurry to another casino. That's A.J., right?

Actually, A.J. is the guy who annoys everyone in the casino, except for those in his party. The people hanging with him are having a blast, shouting "Whammy!" right along with him; and those looks of horror from across the table will only egg them on. The people who are down with A.J. love him like a brother; and, as far as they're concerned, everyone else can go piss up a rope. Although there was a whisper campaign directed against him after the Twins traded him to San Francisco, which held that A.J. was so abrasive he'd even turned umpires against the team, it's important to note that he did have close friends in the clubhouse, and I never met a Twins fan who didn't like him. I think it's even safe to say that he was a fan favorite in Minnesota.

Now, the bad boy ditched by two teams, allegedly because of his poison personality, is getting all kinds of credit for giving the AL Champion Chicago White Sox their newfound winning edge.

Patrick Reusse wrote a column on that theme this weekend, with a couple money quotes from the always loquacious Doug Mientkiewicz, who claims the Twins lost their fighting edge when they traded his buddy A.J. Since Dougie isn't playing baseball this week, and can't go fishing with Hurricane Wilma swirling around the Caribbean, I guess he had nothing better to do than to play at his other favorite hobby, stirring the pot:

"The Twins became too nice when they traded A.J.," Doug Mientkiewicz said. "We had an edge to the way we played with A.J. You could see it in the Twins this season. There was no edge to that team."

"I know Joe Mauer was waiting, but I thought at the time the Twins were crazy to trade A.J.," Mientkiewicz said. "Joe probably has more talent than A.J. I'm sure he does. But until Joe gets his guys to the playoffs . . . I'll take A.J."

As A.J. might have said if he were on the line: BOO-YAA!! The match lit, controversy spreads like wildfire.

I'll say upfront, I know that Dougie Mint has a self-serving agenda. Every time the Twins let go of a key veteran, Doug was openly skeptical about plans to count on youngsters to fill in. He didn't believe Morneau was capable of immediately replacing him, and he predicted the Twins would regret giving up so many of the key players on the 2002-03 division championship teams. I'm sure it strokes his ego to see his old team stumble without him and some of his pals.

Yet, I believe the Twins did lose a lot of personality and some edge when they let go of A.J., Dougie, and Everyday Eddie. They did. The 2005 Twins were a bland group, a cast in search of real characters, who seemed to be going through the motions, waiting for someone else to step up and lead the charge. In a lineup where nearly everyone performed below expectations, it's possible that some spark of inspiration, some rallying force, some abrasive jerk who takes the field with nothing in mind but to have a little fun and kick a lotta ass is just what the crew needed most, sometimes this season.

At the same time, I'll say that nobody seemed to miss A.J. so much last year, when the team won another Central title, by 9 games. The 2004 Twins won 92 games without A.J., without Everyday Eddie, and without Dougie for the second half of the season. Now A.J. is the crucial missing ingredient?

It also should be said that A.J., Dougie, and Eddie were more than just colorful personalities. A.J. was an All-Star in 2002, and probably should have been again in 2003. His last year with the Twins, he was worth 22 Win Shares. Dougie in 2003 was worth 20 Win Shares; and while Shannon Stewart and Johan Santana received nearly all the credit for that team's late-season charge, Dougie hit .305/.438/.433 in the second half of that season. Of course, Eddie was an All-Star closer in 2002 and 2003, too.

Those guys had solid, tangible value on the field; they were good players then. And while the club effectively replaced A.J. and Eddie on the field with Mauer and Nathan, the Twins didn't get anything close to 20 Win Shares out of Morneau this season, and they didn't get anything like that kind of value to replace Koskie at 3rd base, either. It didn't help that Stewart had the worst season of his career, Jones was a subpar Rightfield bat, Hunter contributed to the lineup for just a couple months, and the middle infield continued to be a sinkhole, too.

Joe Mauer was the only guy in the regular lineup who pulled his weight this season, except when LeCroy was gobbling cookies served up by lefty pitching. The 2005 Twins dropped to 3rd place because everybody else in the batting order was inconsistent at best, or more often just flat awful. It's not fair to imply or say outright that Joe Mauer is the one who failed to lead this team to another division title. As Batgirl said, "If the Twins had 25 Mauers, no one would complain and we wouldn't need attitude. Though maybe a better team barber." Just so.

Meanwhile, the White Sox are now up 2-0 in the World Series because they've had strong starting pitching all season, which has ratcheted up a notch in October, and the team has a decent enough offense, while every break seems to go their way. How do you make a team go 35-19 in one-run games? Who could predict that Joe Crede would have such a monster postseason? What rational analysis can account for all the breaks in the ALCS or wins like last night's, when Jermaine Dye is awarded 1st base on a foul ball, which leads to Paul Konerko hitting a 2-out grand slam, and finally a little waterbug who didn't hit a homer the whole regular season wins the game with a walk-off shot in the Right-Center power alley?

Is that the A.J. Effect, or is it a superior collection of talent apparently blessed this year, dare we say, by all the hallmarks of Lady Fortune and Destiny?

Breaking Down the Offense; or, Gawking at the Broken-Down

2005-10-13T23:45:00.000-05:00

In thinking about the Twins offense, where things went wrong and what might be done to improve, I thought it might be interesting to compare the Twins regulars to other players at each position throughout the majors.

The first player listed in each table is the Twins starter, with his ranking at the position including both leagues, according to VORP, the run value above a replacement-level player. I've also included the standard batting line, the park-adjusted OPS, the Equivalent Average figure, and the Win Shares value which accounts for both offense and defense. The lines under the Twins starter feature the best in the league at the position, then 5th best, 10th best, and 15th best, to help highlight the difference between varying grades of performance and what the Twins had going for them.

Catcher	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(3) Mauer	.294/.372/.411	108	.289	40.5	23
(1) Martinez	.305/.378/.405	132	.309	60.3	22
(5) Posada	.262/.352/.430	105	.285	32.6	19
(10) J. Lopez	.278/.332/.458	110	.278	24.7	12
(15) Lieberthal	.263/.336/.418	91	.261	21.1	11

Let's start with the bright spot, the one genuine star in the lineup this season. At age 22, with just 35 games worth of experience and still rehabbing his knee coming into the season, Joe Mauer is already one of the top Catchers in the majors. Measuring by VORP, only Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek had more value at the plate this year, but his high on-base pct. combined with his superior skills behind the plate puts him at the very top of his profession according to Win Shares. Only Mike Matheny and Brad Ausmus had more defensive value by that measure. The kid did everything this year but hit for power, but that was even more true of Victor Martinez when he first came up, too.

Over the next decade, I look forward to the ongoing debate on "Who's better: Mauer or Martinez?" as both of them should be steady fixtures at the All-Star Game.

Mike Redmond also proved to be a shrewd signing by Terry Ryan, as his 8.6 VORP and 7 Win Shares rated him as one of the best backup Catchers this season. (Henry Blanco in Chicago was worth 2.6 VORP and 5 Win Shares, backing up the best Catcher in the NL, Michael Barrett.) The Twins enjoyed a lot of value out of the position, with 30 Win Shares between the starter and primary backup--or 17 Win Shares above what an average bench player would be expected to contribute given the same amount of playing opportunities. Given that each Win Share is worth one-third of a win to the team, that's 5.67 extra wins beyond the value of average scrubs at one position, more than 4 extra wins credited to Mauer.

1st Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(38) Morneau	.239/.304/.437	94	.261	8.6	8
(1) D. Lee	.335/.418/.662	177	.346	106.0	37
(5) Helton	.320/.445/.534	144	.325	67.4	26
(10) C. Tracy	.308/.358/.553	131	.278	47.5	21
(15) Hillenbrand	.291/.343/.449	108	.279	32.5	15

Unfortunately, Morneau wasn't quite up to playing Diz to Mauer's Bird just yet. They say he was bedeviled by ailments and injuries all year, particularly some loose bone chips in his elbow. Let's hope that explains everything, and that simply a winter of rest will be just what the Doctor ordered to get him at his best next year.

This year, his struggles really dug a hole for the team. I hate to single him out, and I strongly believe his manager and coaches did him wrong by raking him in the media, but there's no getting around the fact that an 8.6 VORP for the regular 1st baseman is a tough handicap to overcome. The difference between Justin Morneau and Derrek Lee this year was about 10 wins. Even the difference between Morneau and a mediocre/fair 1B could have been 2-4 wins. There were 14 1B/DH's in the majors worth 20 or more Win Shares, and 5 more worth at least 15.

He has to take several steps up next season, but I support giving him a full opportunity to make good. In the meantime, it might be wise to swing a deal for someone who could share his burden at 1B/DH. Lyle Overbay, worth 33.3 VORP and 18 Win Shares, might do nicely if the Brewers are ready to make way for Prince Fielder.

Desig. Hitter	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(8) LeCroy	.260/.354/.444	111	.285	17.9	8
Lew Ford	.264/.338/.377	90	.263	15.3	13
(1) Ortiz	.300/.397/.604	161	.337	85.8	31
(5) J. Gomes	.282/.371/.534	139	.318	36.9	14
(10) Kotchman	.278/.350/.484	124	.296	9.2	4

I included Ford in this box, although his VORP is based on his value as a Centerfielder. He gets 3 Win Shares for his fielding, and in that category he has the advantage of 240 more plate appearances than LeCroy, as well.

As I said earlier in the week, I think LeCroy is a nice value for the money, particularly if you keep him in a platoon role and let him munch on lefty pitching like so many crawdads. Just cutting him loose at this point, when he should at least have some trade value, doesn't make much sense to me. That said, the GM probably shouldn't have much trouble replacing Matty's overall value in the lineup, either. Out of his 350 PA's this season, just 145 were against lefties. The club might not get another bat who can post a 1.025 OPS against lefties, but 145 PA's is still a minor hole to fill--and there should be an upgrade with whoever takes LeCroy's 200-odd plate appearances against righthanders. Trading for David Dellucci from Texas is one idea worth exploring.

2nd Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(36) L. Rodriguez	.269/.325/.383	90	.262	4.6	6
(1) Roberts	.313/.384/.524	145	.320	69.1	28
(5) Soriano	.268/.309/.512	110	.285	47.8	16
(10) Durham	.290/.355/.429	107	.275	32.2	15
(15) Cano	.296/.316/.457	102	.275	27.3	12

The Curse of Todd Walker lives on.

Out of the patchwork of day laborers the Twins hired to play 2nd base this year, Luis Rodriguez had the most value on offense, such as it was. Nick Punto is a better fielder, but his VORP was -2.2. Even Luis Rivas by the end of the season managed a positive 1.1 VORP.

Of course offense can be more at a premium at this position, but there tend to be bargain finds floating around each year who end up giving good value for the dollar. Mark Grudzielanek signed for $1m to move to St. Louis last winter, and his performance for the Cards was worth 23.1 VORP and 18 Win Shares. The Reds also pulled Rich Aurilia out of the scrap pile and got 26.1 VORP and 16 Win Shares in the bargain. Tony Graffanino was paid $1.1m to hit .309/.366/.425, worth 25.8 VORP for KC and Boston. And kudos to the White Sox for taking a chance on Tadahito Iguchi, a relatively cheap free agent at $2.3m albeit somewhat risky as a 30 year-old with no experience outside Japan. While the Twins wasted more than that much cash on Rivas and Juan Castro, Iguchi was worth 30.9 VORP and 17 Win Shares at 2nd base for Chicago, giving them a nice spark at the top of the order. Ron Belliard has been a similar bargain value for Cleveland the last couple years. Todd Walker himself was paid $2.5m to hit .305/.355/.474 (115 OPS+) this year, worth 31.1 VORP or 17 Win Shares, after he'd been lured to Wrigleyville before the 2004 season with a $1.75m deal.

I'm not saying it's easy to pick out the best bargains each winter, but they are out there. Grudzielanek and Graffanino are free agents again this winter. Terry Ryan might start by making inquiries there.

3rd Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(21) Cuddyer	.263/.330/.422	98	.268	14.2	6
(1) A. Rodriguez	.321/.421/.610	167	.352	99.7	37
(5) A. Ramirez	.302/.358/.568	137	.302	48.8	19
(10) Mueller	.295/.369/.430	112	.288	32.3	18
(15) Branyan	.257/.376/.490	126	.296	17.9	9

Or maybe the Twins should finally settle on moving Cuddyer to 2nd base. His cumulative value took a crater-sized hit this season because he had such a brutal April and spent a good share of the summer on the DL or the bench, but he did hit well after that first month (.275/.345/.450) and even his final batting line wouldn't have been such a shortcoming had he played 2nd base all season.

Bill Mueller, who reportedly drew interest from the Twins last July, looks like the best free agent at 3rd base this winter, if the club won't give Cuddles another chance there. Mueller was worth 32.3 VORP and 18 Win Shares for Boston, and he might be about to get pushed out at last by Kevin Youkilis.

Joe Randa (29.3 VORP, 17 Win Shares) is also on the market again, and may be of interest even though his bat tailed off quite a bit after the Reds sent him to San Diego in the summer.

Shortstop	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(33) Bartlett	.241/.313/.335	74	.244	4.2	6
(1) Young	.331/.385/.513	133	.311	80.1	27
(5) F. Lopez	.291/.350/.485	112	.287	52.4	22
(10) Eckstein	.293/.359/.395	98	.268	39.9	28
(15) Greene	.250/.294/.431	97	.262	20.4	17

Before the season, I figured the Twins could live with the rookie at Shortstop all year as long as he could field his position and play Guzman-level offense. In my book, he was a massive upgrade over Cristian Guzman in the field, taking away hits up the middle that Guzy never would have dreamed of waving at. And he wasn't that far from replacing Guzy's most recent levels with the stick, as Guzman had just a 78 OPS+ and .243 EqA in 2004.

It's not that a .240's EqA is so good for a SS. It remains a hole in the lineup, but pointing fingers at the rookie for bringing down the team is wrong. The more experienced guy the club had there last year was no better than the new kid. Bartlett also had double the run value of Juan Castro (2.1 VORP) in 40 fewer plate appearances.

Leftfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(32) Stewart	.274/.322/.388	88	.257	9.9	12
(1) Bay	.306/.402/.559	148	.326	81.7	34
(5) Burrell	.281/.389/.504	125	.301	50.1	26
(10) Holliday	.307/.361/.505	114	.285	37.4	19
(15) Catalanotto	.301/.367/.451	115	.289	26.4	16

Stewart completely escaped criticism in the local press this season, but in the worst season of his career, his poor plate production was as critical in the team's slide to 3rd place as any other factor. He was simply one of the worst regular Leftfielders in the majors. The difference between him and Jason Bay was at least 7 wins. In the Mauer section, I talked about the Win Share value above the expected contributions of an average bench player given the same playing opportunities: Shannon Stewart with 1 WSAB was essentially your average bench scrub masquerading as a Starting LF and Lead-Off Man this year.

OK, it could've been worse: the Twins Leftfielder could have been Terrence Long or Pedro Feliz. But there weren't many other players given regular time in LF who were just as bad, and I'm wagering that none of them were paid $6.5m this year.

You know what, maybe the savior of 2003 can bounce back next season. On the other hand, he's turning 32 in February, and this was a bad year ending with a shoulder injury, following a season in which he missed 2 months with a foot problem. If Terry Ryan is looking for some budget flexibility, dumping Shannon Stewart on any club willing to take him would be a prime place to start.

Centerfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(13) Hunter	.269/.337/.452	107	.283	24.4	12
(1) A. Jones	.263/.347/.575	133	.300	60.9	23
(5) Damon	.316/.366/.439	113	.293	49.2	25
(10) DeJesus	.293/.359/.445	114	.291	31.5	17
(15) Kotsay	.280/.325/.421	95	.266	23.2	19

Speaking of budget flexibility...

Torii put up fairly typical numbers in the 4 months before he broke his ankle in Boston. His OPS+ was a slight uptick from the 105 OPS+ he posted in 2004. His monthly splits show he had a monster June (.330/.410/.681), but his other 3 months were kinda meh. In July, he was batting .270/.324/.340. I think his #13 rank amongst CF's this year seems fair; it probably wouldn't have changed much had he been able to play the final 2 months. He was worth 31.2 VORP in 2004, 19.8 VORP in 2003. His career year of 2002 (.289/.334/.524; 50.8 VORP) seems as distant a memory as $1.35 for a gallon of gas. We also know he's clashed with younger members of the team lately, and he's occasionally been good for a dour quote when asked about departed veterans. His mood doesn't seem likely to get any better after his friend Jacque is gone.

It's not as if Torii needs to go because he's a bad player; but his play isn't irreplaceable, either. Terry Ryan may be able to apply the $10.75m due Torii to acquire a bat that's better than 25-30 runs above replacement-value. For that kind of money, he probably should find better value than that.

Lew Ford was no great shakes this year; I'd even call him a great disappointment. But even at his production level this year, the difference between him and Torii wasn't all that significant. Lew was worth 3 Win Shares more than the average bench scrub, given the same playing time; Torii, 5. The difference certainly isn't worth $10 mil, is it?

Rightfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(23) Jones	.249/.318/.438	99	.270	17.7	15
(1) Guerrero	.317/.394/.565	156	.336	72.4	27
(5) Jenkins	.292/.375/.513	131	.300	49.7	22
(10) E. Brown	.286/.348/.455	113	.293	34.4	20
(15) J. Lane	.267/.316/.499	112	.274	28.2	16

It's a long ways from 2002 for Jacque, too, and I don't expect it'll hurt to try somebody else next year. Even the green Kubel might stand a fair chance at replacing that kind of production. Oakland's rookie Nick Swisher actually had a similar value to Jacque this season, batting .236/.322/.446, worth 14.2 VORP in 63 fewer plate appearances.

Jermaine Dye was the veteran bargain buy of last winter, paid $4m by the White Sox to hit .274/.333/.512, worth 35.6 VORP and 18 Win Shares. But the big surprise and feel-good story at the position this season was Emil Brown, in the #10 slot in the box above.

A former prospect of the Pirates organization, Brown hadn't seen the majors since 2001, when he hit .190/.284/.299 in 155 plate appearances between Pittsburgh and San Diego. After bouncing from San Diego through the farm systems of Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Houston, he signed last winter with the Royals, made the club out of spring training and finally shone like a diamond at age 30. Michael Restovich, take heart. Don't let 'em get you down.

Farewell, Flounder

2005-10-10T13:54:00.000-05:00

The Twins began their offseason housecleaning in earnest last week, cutting ties with Luis Rivas, Matt LeCroy, Michael Ryan, Brent Abernathy, Glenn Williams, Jason Tyner, and Joe Mays. Declining the $8.5m option on Mays was an expected move, and Rivas was a dead man walking since the club sent him down to AAA, and I danced on his grave, last July. Most of the rest are organizational filler, who may or may not be brought back to staff the Rochester roster next spring. I'm mildly surprised, and even more pleased, to see that Terry Ryan apparently does not have serious plans to rely on Jason Tyner as a fourth outfielder to give Gardenhire his desired increase of speed on the team.

Matt LeCroy is the one guy I'll miss next season. He's probably due for a raise, after arbitration, in the $1.5m range. Apparently the GM has other uses for that money in mind, rather than a platoon DH and clubhouse cut-up who doesn't mind eating bugs for money or doing silly dances if it makes the guys laugh. That's fine, although I wish Terry Ryan wouldn't pretend that LeCroy blew his spot because he's not versatile enough to make it as a 3rd string Catcher. Ryan told an AP reporter, "Unfortunately, I was concerned about the lack of catching ability. I wanted to think he had enough versatility.''

Frankly, that's silly. Paying $1.5m for a DH isn't out of line. A club that can pay Luis Rivas $1.65m, or $1m for Juan Castro, could find a way to pay $1.5m for a decent DH, even a good platoon bat in the role. His value as a 3rd string Catcher or backup 1st baseman would be negligible, even if he were good at those roles. The main questions should be: is his bat worth the money, or are there better ways to spend the dough?

LeCroy this season hit a solid .260/.354/.444 in 350 plate appearances, including a whopping .306/.404/.621 against lefty pitching. LeCroy's 5.56 RC/27 rate (Runs Created per 27 outs) was second amongst lineup regulars on the team, after only Joe Mauer. His 111 OPS+ was even better than Mauer (108 OPS+), better than any regular on the team. Yes, he's slow, he has marginal fielding skills, and he struggles with righty pitching. But his bat was an asset to the lineup, just the same. A 17.9 VORP for a part-time bat at less than $2 mil is a nice value.

Does the GM think he can bring in a free agent to upgrade the DH spot for that kind of money?

In the 1B/DH bargain bin this winter, he'll be looking at names like Mark Sweeney, John Olerud, Eduardo Perez, Daryle Ward, Robert Fick, Olmedo Saenz, J.T. Snow, Brad Fullmer, Greg Colbrunn, Ruben Sierra, and maybe Raffy Palmeiro if things get desperate for both Palmeiro and the Twins. Only Sweeney and Palmeiro had more value than LeCroy, measured by VORP, this season; and not by all that much. Sweeney was worth 23.2 VORP in 267 PA's this season, Palmeiro was worth 18.9 VORP in 442 PA's.

So if the Twins mean to upgrade on LeCroy's production next year, Ryan will probably have to swing a trade for someone like Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee (33.2 VORP, 2nd year arb., due to be forced out by Prince Fielder) or David Dellucci from Texas (35.5 VORP, due $950k next season, may be available for pitching), to name just two possibilities. Or, perhaps Ryan will apply LeCroy's money to a larger lump of dough to lure an even bigger fish to the Land O' Lakes.

Either way, this could work out fine. But it seems odd that Terry Ryan didn't see LeCroy as a trading chip to offer around this winter. A bench bat who crushes lefty pitching, and is still bound by arbitration, should have some trade value. Why outright him to AAA and just cut him loose? Is he just in such a hurry to clear his books so he can go right after other acquisition targets next month? Any ideas on that?

Meanwhile, farewell to you, Flounder. You didn't quite become the Big Stick we projected a few years ago, but you were an asset to the lineup, a fun character, and I always felt good rooting for you. Happy landings.

Newman

2005-10-10T11:49:00.000-05:00

Swept away in the first week of housecleaning this offseason, Twins 3rd base coach Al Newman said goodbye on Friday as he took a scouting job with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Fans who rooted for the '87 and '91 championship teams may be understandably sentimental about seeing Newman leave the organization, but my connections to the team don't go that far back. To me, he was just a reliably fun postgame interview on the radio, and a constant irritation as a 3rd base coach.

I know, fans of every team hate their 3rd base coach, usually because they think their guy has a penchant for waving around runners who never had a prayer of getting home safely. Just yesterday, Braves 3rd base coach Fredi Gonzalez may have cost his team a critical insurance run in the 7th inning. As Jeff Francouer doubled into the short LF corner in Houston, the slow-trotting Adam LaRoche looked quite content to coast from 1st to 3rd, setting up Ryan Langerhans to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. However, Gonzalez waved LaRoche towards home, even as the Braves held a 5-1 lead, and the relay beat the runner to the plate by several steps. That's usually the sort of move that gets the fans howling for a head on a platter.

I always thought Newman was the opposite kind of traffic cop: cautious to a fault. If there were less than 2 outs, you could count on him to hold the runner at 3rd unless he was sure his man could score without much of a play at the plate. Once on a radio postgame interview with the Dazzle Man, he openly admitted that he didn't even like to see a runner head for a play at home unless absolutely necessary, because of the risk of injury. To a degree, it's good to know he cares about protecting his players. But I've seen him hold runners when it was clear to anyone in the stands that his man could have scored doing cartwheels. I remember one time a few years back when he held the runner at 3rd while the ball was still being collected in the outfield, and the trailing runner was nearly caught in a rundown because he was forced to retreat 80 feet back to 2nd base. Like I said, I know that fans of every team hate their 3rd base coach. That was just Newmie's particular way of irritating me.

According to one of LaVelle Neal's sources inside the organization, Newman's bosses had issues with his performance in the 3rd base coach's box this season, and he had philosophical differences with Ron Gardenhire behind the scenes. I don't know, there's probably some office politics going on. Newman himself told Neal that he wonders if he's being made the scapegoat for the team's struggles this year. Pushing him out might also be a way to hire Paul Molitor as hitting coach, without firing Gardy's close friend Scotty Ullger. If that's all there is to the story, I don't like this way of doing business.

But, some radio listeners have said that Newman may have signed his own walking papers by going on the Dan Barreiro show last week, taking Torii Hunter's side in the Hunter/Morneau fight and criticizing the youngsters on the team. If that is the case, then I'm glad Terry Ryan did something about it. It shouldn't be acceptable for any of the coaches to go on the radio to gossip about the team and rag on the organization's developing talent. If that's what he did, then Newman was a problem. He had to go.

Friends

2005-10-08T15:32:00.000-05:00

So Long

2005-10-07T02:10:00.000-05:00

Dear Geek,

Sorry to read that you're shutting down the blog.

You were the first Twins fan to stake out your own journal space outside the bulletin board communities, developing your personal blend of geek analysis and kidtales of Cheetos-dust and bathtime follies. You won acclaim and a loyal following, spots on WCCO, a contract with the Star Tribune online. Finally, the coup de grâce, the crème de la crème, your magnus opus: the one-stop blogging community, Twins Territory. A thousand people or more each day would drop in for your take on the state of the team, and to get in on the conversation.

I've seen a number of bloggers give you credit for inspiring them to start up their own humble sites. As for myself, truth is, I was intimidated by the example you set. Your columns always were so insightful and fresh, and I always have been in awe of your ability to keep up your high standard so consistently. If I still felt like I had to match Twins Geek in order to justify claiming my own space in the blogosphere, I still wouldn't have created this site. I still might be devoting my energy to bulletin board arguments and backbenching at bloggers who write about the Timberpups after an especially exciting Twins win. Sorry about doing that to you, I hope it's not too late to say. I can see now that I was trying to improve you, because I wasn't ready to do it for myself. In my backwards way, I meant the complaints as a compliment.

It's a shame that the Strib, 'CCO, or some show like Rosen's late night gabfest don't have the sense to get you on their payroll. Really, in a town where the goddamn 'CCO weatherman is a cross-media celebrity, none of the local media can see the possibilities in giving Twins Geek his own show and newspaper column? Who wouldn't like to see you cracking jokes and giving the needle to Grandpa Sports, Red-Faced Reusse, and some Vikings lineman every Sunday night? They need someone like you, Geek. Now you're shutting down, and we're all the poorer for the loss. I hope it's not forever.

Take care and don't be a stranger. Best of luck.

Thanks.

Ex-Twins Stats, Season End

2005-10-04T01:01:00.000-05:00

E. Milton (Cin): 8-15, 6.47 ERA, -25.0 VORP
M. Redman (Pit): 5-15, 4.90 ERA, 11.0 VORP
K. Rogers (Tex): 14-8, 3.46 ERA, 40.5 VORP
L. Hawkins (SF): 2-8, 3.83 ERA, 7.4 VORP
Guardado (Sea): 2-3, 2.72 ERA, 36/41 Sv, 13.2 VORP
T. Jones (Fla): 1-5, 2.10 ERA, 40/45 Sv, 25.6 VORP
A. Fultz (Phi): 4-0, 2.24 ERA, 23.2 VORP
H. Carrasco (Was): 5-4, 2.04 ERA, 31.3 VORP
J. Baldwin (Balt): 0-2, 3.81 ERA, 8.4 VORP
M. Kinney (SF): 2-0, 6.00 ERA, -0.6 VORP
S. Greisinger (Atl): 0-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.1 VORP (Released)

D. Ortiz (Bos): .300/397/.604, 83.2 VORP
D. Mientkiewicz (NYM): .240/.319/.407, 4.7 VORP
A. Pierzynski (CWS): .257/.308/.420, 15.4 VORP
C. Koskie (Tor): .249/.337/.398, 9.6 VORP
C. Guzman (Was): .219/.256/.313, -11.4 VORP
T. Walker (Cubs): .305/.353/.474, 30.2 VORP
C. Blake (Cle): .241/.307/.438, 11.4 VORP
M. Lawton (NYY): .254/.356/.396, 19.3 VORP
D. Miller (Mil): .272/.339/.412, 23.5 VORP
M. Restovich (Pitt): .239/.306/.381, -0.1 VORP

*Unfortunately for Resto, he did not get a real chance to play in Pittsburgh, as most of his appearances with the Pirates came as a pinch-hitter, a tough role for someone with little experience in the majors and almost none in the NL. As an OF this season, Resto hit .267/.344/.453 in 96 PA's; as a pinch-hitter, .148/.179/.148 in 28 PA's. Against lefty pitching, he hit .256/.319/.442; meanwhile, Jacque Jones hit .201/.247/.370 against LHP.

Could the Twins have used Resto as a platoon partner for Jones, or as an eventual fill-in at the OF corners after Hunter and Stewart were lost for the season? No doubt about it. He would have improved the team in that role, and provided far more value than Corky Miller did. It's just a shame that the club threw him away so easily. I hope for Resto that one of these days, before too long, he has the good fortune to hook up with a team willing to give him that legitimate shot at filling an OF/DH platoon spot.

D. Mohr (Col): .214/.280/.466, -0.1 VORP
B. Kielty (Oak): .263/.349/.395, 12.1 VORP
C. Allen (Tex): .283/.304/.340, -0.8 VORP
J. Offerman (NYM): .229/.308/.333, -0.1 VORP
C. Gomez (Balt): .279/.350/.342, 4.4 VORP
Q. McCracken (Ari): .236/.305/.296, -2.4 VORP
H. Blanco (Cubs): .242/.281/.391, 2.2 VORP
J. Valentin (Cin): .281/.362/.520, 25.7 VORP
C. Moeller (Mil): .206/.255/.367, -1.1 VORP
D. Ardoin (Col): .229/.310/.362, 1.1 VORP
D. Hocking (KC): .267/.366/.283, 0.9 VORP

MINORS

M. Kinney (SF, AAA): 7-8, 5.21 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
J. Roa (Pitt, AAA): 1-1, 6.05 ERA (DL)
Rowland-Smith (Sea, AA): 6-7, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
T. Fiore (Bal, AAA): 9-5, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
A. Johnson (Oak, AAA): 6.23 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 21.2 IP

J. Barnes (Atl, AAA): .277/.331/.362, 18 2B, 3 HR
T. Sears (Fla, AAA): .323/.399/.503, 14 2B, 13 HR

Leadership

2005-10-01T13:08:00.000-05:00

So Torii Hunter was in town for just a few days to visit teammates this week. Still, he made time to carry out his duties as Team Leader--such as getting into a fight with Justin Morneau.

Morneau had the class to downplay the incident and pay his respects to Torii in the press, but here's the part of the story that slays me:

Hunter, during an interview about the frustration in the clubhouse, said he's kept up with the developments from Texas and has been startled at what he's read. Some of the events during the second half include righthander Carlos Silva saying that some players were acting like they didn't want to win, Kyle Lohse damaging doors in the clubhouse after being taken out of a game and J.C. Romero getting into arguments with Gardenhire and bench coach Steve Liddle earlier this week. In each case, things eventually calmed down.

"I gotta say if I was here, I probably wouldn't have allowed that," he said of some of the things he's read about. "It's not my ballclub, but I can't handle that. We're trying to win, and you cannot win when you've got people talking about each other in the paper and the media, even in the clubhouse going against each other. You've got the pitchers on one side going against each other, you can't do that. Everybody's got to be tightly knit, and I think that if I was here it wouldn't happen. We'd have to fight, it's as simple as that."

Um, Torii. You remember that road trip in early June, when there was a fuss in the papers about young players who needed to learn how to play hurt...?

Even now, while he says a team can't have players criticizing each other in the media, isn't he doing exactly that?

Funny how his leadership solution to rifts in the clubhouse seems to be, "We'd have to fight, it's as simple as that," too.

Torii has his talents, but acting as a leader to unite the players on the team isn't one of them. That in itself doesn't necessarily mean that he must go this winter. Baseball teams can win despite divisive influences in the clubhouse. But this incident should finally put the lie to the notion that he's indispensible because he's the Team Leader. Should he stay or should he go--Terry Ryan ought to base his decision mainly on whether Torii's plate production and play in the field is likely to be worth $10.75m (plus the $2m buyout in 2007) to this club, and what kind of value he might bring in trade and how else that money could be spent as an alternative. If Torii's clubhouse influence tips the scales at all, the way I see it, the clashes with Morneau this season should tilt against him.

Friday Cats

2005-09-30T03:42:00.000-05:00

Izzy and O'Malley

Calico in the Gloaming

Ornette and Izzy

Pearl

Scotty, You're Doin' a Heckuva Job

2005-09-29T22:40:00.000-05:00

Terry Ryan in the Pioneer Press:

"We've had a difficult year with the bats, and consequently a lot of people start putting responsibility on one individual. But for me, it's an organizational-wide responsibility.

"Scott Ullger is a professional. He does as good as he possibly can under the circumstances. He's very, very hard working. He's very accessible. He's very responsible. He doesn't stereotype hitters. He's willing to work any time. It's more my responsibility than it is the individual coaches."

All right. Fortunately for Scotty, he works for bosses who care more about his effort and good intentions than the results of his work. I wonder about the assertion that he doesn't stereotype hitters, when we know that certain players are counseled to "slap n' run" while others are urged to "let it fly," but whatever. The GM isn't going to blame his field manager or any of his coaches for what's gone wrong this season, or the poor showing of the offense in most recent years. Ryan says its "an organizational-wide responsibility," starting with himself.

So how will those words translate into action after the season ends? Will we see significant changes to how the whole organization operates?

Will we see Ryan commit to finding a 2nd baseman who can hit, and a corner outfielder who can mash the ball as well as bring some plate discipline to the lineup? Will he clear out some overpriced contracts to give himself the flexibility to pursue a Big Ticket bat? Will he finally trade some pitching surplus to bring his offense up to code?

If Terry Ryan really does commit himself to change his own operating procedures, then I'll forget about the hitting coach for awhile. Maybe the GM only needs to shuffle his outfield and find a better 2nd baseman than Rivas/Punto/Rodriguez, and the natural maturing of the young foundation of his lineup will take care of the rest. If he pursues that sort of course of action this winter, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I'll be optimistic about the chances for improvement next year. But if retaining Ullger turns out to be the first sign that Terry Ryan remains committed to maintaining the status quo, then I'll be looking ahead to another season of watching the team stuck in traction. The rebuilding project may take awhile, in that case.

Accountability

2005-09-28T08:24:00.000-05:00

Ron Gardenhire, on why he wants hitting coach Scotty Ullger back next year:

"Scotty's accountable. The offense didn't have a good year, and it's not from a lack of work, all of a sudden losing knowledge of how to teach guys to hit. That hasn't happened. Scotty's a very good hitting instructor. We've just had injuries. We've had young hitters come up, and we've had some of the veterans come up and have bad years.

"The whole unit didn't get it done. And you can throw that on the hitting instructor, but the same guy got it done for three years when we won championships. We got it done, and he's worked his tail off, so I'm not going to blame it on Scotty."

For the record, when Gardy says, "the same guy got it done for three years when we won championships," he is thinking of an offense that was 9th in the AL with 4.77 runs per game in 2002, 6th with 4.94 rpg in 2003, and 10th with 4.81 rpg in 2004.

You may remember spending the three years pining for just one hitter to build on the individual accomplishments of 2001-2 and become the big presence in the middle of the order which the team so desperately needed.

You may recall how one young player after another would tease us with a promising, apparent breakout season, only to hit a plateau or regress under our hitting coach's tutelage. You probably can name at least a few more top prospects who hit at every level of the minors only to disappoint us after arriving in Minnesota.

Of course you know Scotty Ullger is the guy who worked at it for 4+ seasons but couldn't unlock the potential in David Ortiz which came out within a few months of landing in Boston.

Now this offense is last in the American League with 4.20 rpg; it might not even score 700 runs for the season.

On what basis does the hitting coach deserve a break?

Gardy's Log

2005-09-27T04:57:00.000-05:00

Tuesday, 9.27.05
4.57 am

The team is 8-15 this month and has scored 83 runs in those 23 games, an average of 3.61 runs per game. Since putting up a 10-spot against Oakland last Wednesday--with Punto, Rivas, and Tyner each stealing a base!!--we have scored just 7 runs in the last 5 games. Last night, we were shut out by the Kansas City Royals. Some kid named J.P. Howell, who spent half the season in AAA Omaha and came into the game with an ERA north of 7, went all Felix Hernandez on us and no-hit the boys for 5 innings before he had to come out because he'd already thrown 97 pitches.

But what can I do? Torii and Stewie are out, Guzy is gone, and that wily Canuck Koskie went back to Canada. How's a manager supposed to get a running game going with all that speed and cunning experience missing? I've spoken to Terry Ryan about bringing in more speed for next season. I've been riding him about it since early August, actually. He says he'll see what he can do to get more guys like that Tyner kid for me. I reminded him that Neifi Perez will be available, and that we could use a veteran like Kenny Lofton, too. But I'm not sure whether he takes me seriously. I can never tell when he's just humoring me anymore.

I was talking to Harmon awhile back, on the day they gave out those little statues in his honor. I asked if he could help me sell the youngsters on the importance of doing all the little things that make up Twins Baseball. He just smiled and said maybe he wasn't the right man for the job. That's what's so great about the Killer. So humble. Truly a man from another era. The Twins organization may never see another player of his like again. Damn the luck!

I just don't know what to do with this current crop. Some of 'em wouldn't know how to get down a sac bunt or move the runner along with a productive out even if I could get Harmon himself to explain it to them. If I had a dollar for every hour of sleep I've lost, stewing over a busted hit-and-run, a bad bunt, or some failure to get a damn flyball to rightfield, I'd be half as rich as Carl by now.

We hoped to see Morneau take care of run production in the cleanup spot, but that's been a bust, too. Scotty Ullger has tried everything. We've tried telling him to focus on gaining his comfort by driving the ball the opposite way, we've tried telling him just to let 'er fly. We've preached aggressiveness, we've suggested watching Mauer for tips on working the count. Nothing works! He just looks lost and confused out there. Kids! I would just about kill for one veteran slugger out of the Boston lineup to bat cleanup for us next season. If only....

Well, that's life. One more week of watching this, and I can go fishin'. I wonder if Dougie will take me out on his boat this year? Note to self: ask daughter to send me his e-mail address again. Or I wonder if I can get his phone number from Terry?

Buckingham Fountain, Chicago

2005-09-25T03:17:00.000-05:00

Ravel in the Garden of Eden

2005-09-25T00:36:00.000-05:00

Cat Sofa

2005-09-24T04:26:00.000-05:00

The Oriole Sings Like a Canary

2005-09-22T23:08:00.000-05:00

The Baltimore Sun reports that word has leaked back to Orioles management that Rafael Palmeiro told the MLB arbitration panel, in seeking to overturn his suspension, that he got his steroids from a certain Orioles teammate. His manager Sam Perlozzo suggests that, if this is the case, perhaps Raffy should not return to the team this season. Even if he told the truth, under oath.

My gut reaction is to laugh at Raffy for turning stool pigeon against a teammate in order to save himself, or at least get some leniency from the Commissioner's office. Where's the honor among thieves, Raffy? Even worse, if he's again lying under oath to slip the rope.

On the other hand, assuming he's told the truth under oath, it looks embarrassing for Orioles management to see that their first instinct at hearing this news is to close ranks and banish Raffy, indicating that protecting the sanctity of the clubhouse is their top priority. I wonder if this is the most important priority for the Baltimore players, too. Is anyone involved with the club truly serious about unmasking members of the chemistry set and rooting steroids and HGH out of the game? If Palmiero has a supplier in the O's clubhouse, why should he be the sole pariah?

UPDATE: it turns out that Palmeiro claimed that a false-positive test could have been triggered by a Vitamin B-12 injection given to him by Miguel Tejada. The club Co-GM Jim Beattie said:

"Miggy [Tejada] is cleared in any implication that he provided steroids to Palmeiro. That was investigated by HHPAC [House Health Policy Advisory Committee], and just to be sure they tested the stuff that Miggy had. It was found to be the B-12. That cleared it. End of story."

Tests on whether Rafael Palmeiro is indeed a ratfink wanker are still inconclusive.

Animal Rescue

2005-09-22T21:28:00.000-05:00

Bill Would Require Safety Plans for Pets

By ELIZABETH WHITE, Associated Press
Thu Sep 22, 1:43 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Federal disaster grants to state and local governments should be conditioned on how they accommodate pets in their evacuation plans, say lawmakers disturbed that some Hurricane Katrina victims refused to leave home because they couldn't take their animals with them.

"I cannot help but wonder how many more people could have been saved had they been able to take their pets," Rep. Tom Lantos (news, bio, voting record), D-Calif., said Thursday.

Lantos and Reps. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., and Barney Frank, D-Mass., are sponsoring a bill that would require that state and local disaster preparedness plans required for
Federal Emergency Management Agency funding include provisions for household pets and service animals.

I'm putting this up for anyone who is concerned about the animals displaced or stranded by the storms in the Gulf Coast region, and as a reminder to myself to look more thoroughly into the details later.

In the AP story, a representative of the Humane Society claims that 6,000 pets have been rescued in Louisiana and Mississippi since Hurricane Katrina hit, but "tens of thousands" could still be stranded in New Orleans alone. The Doris Day Animal League claims it still has 4,000 outstanding requests to rescue pets in the region.

Any animals lovers out there have ideas for a coordinated system that could evacuate and save more animals in future storms? I realize that the government doesn't even have a real plan for evacuating and rescuing humans in such cases, yet, but I'm glad to see this issue also brought to the table.

Any opinions and ideas, please sound off!

The Face of the Twins

2005-09-20T15:06:00.000-05:00

If Torii Hunter is The Face of the Twins, I wonder if he's on the cover of the Media Guide this year. Anyone know?

Who is The Face of the Twins, in your opinion?

Take the poll.

Hunter vs. Cameron

2005-09-20T03:22:00.000-05:00

I'd been mulling whether to write a point-by-point rebuttal of the mostly silly reasons Jim Souhan listed as to why Torii Hunter is too important to trade--unless the Twins can get Vernon Wells, Shea Hillenbrand, cash, and a few cases of Labatt's, he says. But SBG already got his hands dirty for me this evening, and there's no need for me to go rewriting his blog.

I would like to nibble on one delicious crumb, however, which SBG left on the table: "In short, hitting big-league pitching is really hard," says Souhan. "Hunter is not Willie Mays, but he's not Mike Cameron, either."

Not Mike Cameron, either?

Hmmm, let's see....

Cameron	Batting Line	EqA	RARP	VORP	WARP-3
2001	.267/.353/.480	.301	51.1	50.9	8.0
2002	.239/.340/.442	.286	37.4	35.7	7.1
2003	.253/.344/.431	.278	29.2	29.9	7.4
2004	.231/.319/.479	.271	23.5	27.0	5.5
2005	.273/.343/.477	.284	16.5	22.4	2.4

Hunter	Batting Line	EqA	RARP	VORP	WARP-3
2001	.261/.306/.479	.264	22.3	26.0	6.7
2002	.284/.334/.524	.291	39.0	50.8	5.0
2003	.250/.312/.451	.261	18.4	19.8	4.1
2004	.271/.330/.475	.276	25.8	31.2	5.0
2005	.269/.340/.452	.280	20.8	23.7	4.8

If you're tallying along at home, you should have 165.9 VORP (which Baseball Prospectus defines as, "The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.") for Cameron over the past 5 seasons, and 30.4 Wins that Cameron has been worth above a replacement-value player. Torii Hunter over the past 5 seasons has been worth 151.5 VORP and 25.6 Wins above a replacement-value player.

I guess Jim Souhan is more right than he knew: Torii Hunter not only falls short of the Willie Mays standard, he really is no Mike Cameron, either. At the least, there hasn't been a significant difference between them in the past few seasons. Cameron is also a Gold Glove Centerfielder, and he's getting paid $6m this year, $8m next year, with a $6.5m option for 2007. Choosing between the two, why wouldn't you prefer to have Mike Cameron?

Terry Ryan, get the Mets on the phone! Let's wheel n' deal, pardner....

Kidding. Just kidding, TR. I hope to see the Twins aim higher than Cammy when bartering at the market this winter. But the point is, let's not lose our heads about how valuable Torii Hunter is to this team. Would you want the Twins to pay Mike Cameron $10.75 million next year, and $12 million to keep him in 2007? Then why overspend like that to keep Hunter?

Torii Hunter is not a franchise cornerstone. He's a very good Centerfielder, who is about to become overpaid for his true value. What the Twins need in an $11-12 million player is not a rough facsimile of Mike Cameron. They need that money to pay a big basher, and trading Torii Hunter may be the only way that kind of money could become available to the Twins GM.

Why the Twins Should Trade Torii

2005-09-19T17:28:00.000-05:00

Well, here I am, back from a restful vacation, only to find all of Twins Territory in a tizzy because Torii Hunter has put his local condo on the market. Does that mean he knows he's on the way out after the season? Would trading him be a step backwards for the club, or a public relations disaster? Or could it be a good opportunity?

Jim Souhan has lobbied against the idea, as have Batgirl and 3BL. Ideally, I would like to see Carl Pohlad just give his GM an extra $25 million to buy a couple big sticks this winter, allowing him to keep Hunter in the fold for at least another season. But what are the chances?

So Terry Ryan is in a bit of a bind. He needs to upgrade an offense that ranks 13th in the AL, but he doesn't have much wiggle room in his budget so long as Torii Hunter stands to take up 18% of the payroll. Pair Torii with Shannon Stewart, and that's 28.75% of next year's budget on a couple bats whose production is rather mediocre for the outfield. If he trades Torii, and can either trade Stewart or say goodbye to Jacque Jones, that would give the club a lot of financial flexibility to address problems in the lineup. Getting busy in the trading pool could also allow Ryan to look beyond the thin free agent market for help.

The big names in the prospective free agent market include Brian Giles, Nomar Garciaparra, Johnny Damon, Bernie Williams, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Paul Konerko, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Joe Randa, Mark Grudzielanek, Richard Hidalgo, Kenny Lofton, Matt Lawton, and Juan Encarnacion. There isn't much left from there. The Twins might be able to land a couple guys in that pool who could help, if Ryan has the money to spend; but to make some truly impactful changes this winter, the GM really needs to make a blockbuster trade.

How about trading some pitching? The Twins have plenty of it. And Kyle Lohse, due to make at least $4m in arbitration this winter, would be an ideal chip to trade. Perhaps Ryan can entice some interest by dangling a pitching prospect or two, as well. But he has to be mindful of planning for 2007 and beyond, too. At that point, a number of Twins pitchers' contracts will be expiring or becoming expensive. The club will need youngsters like Baker and Liriano to step in. Trading key pitching prospects just to keep Hunter for one or two more years could look awfully shortsighted just a ways down the road when not only Baker or Liriano but Hunter himself could be gone. Just trading Lohse and prospects also does little to solve the GM's budget flexibility problem. It might not be enough to set a true blockbuster trade in motion, either.

It's true to a point that Torii Hunter is generally one of the most productive bats in the Twins lineup, but that's a bit like having better than average vision in a School for the Blind. His offensive value measured by Runs Above Replacement-level rates 2nd on this year's team, but that's only because no regular but Joe Mauer is having even a decent season at the plate. Last year, Hunter was 3rd on the team measured by that value; but he could have been 5th, as he was in 2003, if Stewart and Morneau were with the club all season. Even in a weakling offense, Torii Hunter has been a supporting player the last few years.

Meanwhile, the team has a crying need for a masher, or at least a consistently productive hitter. You can generally count on Torii to put up something like his career numbers (.267/.321/.452). This year, he was hitting .269/.337/.452 through the end of July, when he broke his ankle. He'd also been putting us through his typical streakiness: a 783 OPS in April, 633 in May, 1.091 in June, and 664 in July. Is that the kind of performance the Twins should be happy to get for $10.75 million next year?

In New York, maybe the club lives with that. Just 25 HR, 90 RBI, and the occasional Spiderman catch could be all they require. Minnesota can't afford that expensive luxury. Terry Ryan needs better value for the dollar. Jim Souhan writes that trading Torii should net "three good or two great righthanded bats in return, or you're treading water." Come on. We're talking about an outfielder who, since 2001, has put up Equivalent Averages of .264, .291, .261, .276, and .280. It won't require Manny and David Ortiz together to replace that kind of production.

Souhan also cites the fear of the unknown as a reason to stay the course, as if we already hadn't been orbiting some ring of the Inferno watching this lineup struggle to score runs. Hey, even Terry Ryan could get burned like he did with Rick Reed and Todd Jones, he says, apparently forgetting that Reed did lead the rotation in 2002 with a 15-7, 3.78 mark in 188 innings, and that Reed struggled in 2003 mainly because he tried to pitch with a nagging back injury. Todd Jones also had a 3.26 ERA in his short term with the Twins, although his WHIP did stink. But what made that a poor trade was just that the club threw away Mark Redman when his stock had dipped because of arm trouble, in exchange for a two-month rental whose stock was riding low as well. It was a "change of scenery" deal, made to get rid of someone Tom Kelly didn't like, in exchange for a very limited gain. Trading Torii wouldn't be like that.

This is simply a potential opportunity to go get an experienced banger or a youngster with great upside by offering around a veteran player who may have great appeal to another club that won't sweat paying him $23 million over the next couple years. Meanwhile, trading Lohse and letting go of Stewart or Jones could also free up over $20 million for Terry Ryan to spend on trade acquisitions or some complimentary free agents. He should be able to find one great bat, or at least a couple upgrades on the ones we have, with that kind of flexibility. The possibilities of reshaping the roster through the trade market this winter could be very exciting. If the alternative is to stand pat, making just minor tweaks to this putrid lineup, I'm all for embracing fresh change.

2005-09-16T02:40:00.000-05:00

I'll be back posting again on Monday. I had meant to post some pictures of my latest visits to Safeco Field to watch the M's play this week, as well as some occasional short commentary on the Twins. Alas, I forgot the plug to connect my camera to this computer, and I haven't had much spare time or opportunity to check in with the Twins and pull together some cohesive and thoughtful analysis. But I have not given up on the blog since the Twins have practically fallen out of the playoff race.

Having a lovely.
Wish you were.
I shall.
Bisy.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

2005-09-08T10:26:00.000-05:00

Mark Sheldon at mlb.com writes that Kyle Lohse hurt a finger on his pitching hand while hitting some doors in the clubhouse after Ron Gardenhire pulled him after 2 innings, trailing 5-2, in Tuesday's loss to Texas. In "You Should See the Other Guy" news: the damage included a dent in the manager's office door.

Uh-oh.

As if that weren't enough to test the business relationship between manager and employee, Lohse escalated the tension by complaining to reporters after the game, "I would have liked to have somebody stand behind me and say, 'We've got your back, go out there and shut them down from here on. That didn't happen today, so whatever."

Oh, now it's ON!

"It's too bad you have to read stuff like that in the newspaper," Gardenhire said. "Don't have your back? I think I've had his back for three years.

"It's about winning. If you don't understand that, take a hike out of the clubhouse."

Gardenhire said he still hadn't spoken to Lohse about Tuesday night's incident.

"I have nothing to say," the manager said. "I don't have his back, so what do you want me to say?"

It's OK, Gardy. "I think I've had his back for three years" will suffice for now.

Kyle, did you not notice what happened to Luis Rivas when he took it for granted that he was a Made Man just because the club let him wear the uniform for 4+ years? Granted, you have not been such a consistent embarrassment to the uniform as Rivas has been, but since when does a career mark of 48-51, 4.77 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP entitle a pitcher not to get yanked after giving up 5 easy in the first couple frames of the game? Man, batters are hitting .300/.341/.470 off you this year. And you want to throw tantrums and rip the manager in the press because he doesn't give you the deference due to an Ace?

Kyle, have you met Francisco Liriano? Behold the face of the future. He'll be having your job soon enough.

I've said before that Lohse should be on the trading block because of his due salary increase next year, and the fact that he often has trouble getting through a batting order more than once or twice, but now it really has to happen, don't you think? His walking papers have been all but signed by Kyle himself, marked with that dent in Gardy's door. Imagine what must go through the manager's mind every morning when he comes to work and sees that dent before he's even had his first cup of coffee. I wonder if Gardy would like to have it fixed or if he'd prefer to keep the reminder awhile.

Lohse didn't clear waivers in August, so we know at least one team must have an interest in him. Ship him out by Thanksgiving, and apply that $4 million salary to some better use, like upgrading the offense.

Liriano, Tyner Called Up

2005-09-02T14:51:00.000-05:00

Good news: Twins management decided not to wait until next week to call up Francisco Liriano. He and outfielder Jason Tyner were placed on the roster last night and should be available to play against the Indians today.

Liriano is the International League Rookie of the Year, posting a 9-2 record with 1.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .177 opp avg, and 112 strikeouts (11.08 K/9) in 91 innings at AAA. Next to Felix Hernandez of Seattle, he's been billed lately as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. And as if that didn't sound almost too good to be true, he's even lefthanded and hits 97+ on the radar gun. Expect the Twins to use him out of the pen for most of the month, but I hope he might get at least one or two starts as the schedule winds down.

Tyner hit .286/.351/.334 in 577 plate appearances for Rochester this season and led the team with 81 runs scored and18 stolen bases. Gardenhire has mentioned that he'd like to have Tyner onhand for his speed, although it's not likely we'll see much of him until the Twins might be officially eliminated from the postseason, or can clinch an October berth. Look for him to show up mainly in pinch-running and pinch-hitting spots in the next few weeks.

Hurricane Relief

2005-09-01T22:03:00.000-05:00

The Twins will be hosting an auction and other events this weekend to raise money for the American Red Cross and the Salvation Army to provide relief to the victims of Hurricane Katrina. The auction prizes include opportunities to meet Joe Mauer during batting practice, to spend time with Tony Oliva while you watch a game from a luxury suite, or to meet Harmon Killebrew, as well as other prizes. Click HERE for full details.

I also found a handy list of Hurricane Relief charities organized at Billmon's blog. Amidst several charities that will help people recover from the disaster, the list also includes donation links to the Humane Society and Noah's Wish to help rescue and care for animals in the disaster area and to assist the animals' owners.

I keep writing about the Twins this week because I care too much about baseball. My interest in the game is a passion which sometimes becomes an obsession for all the wonderful and myriad details involved, and this blog is an outlet to talk about all that and reach people who share that passion. Yet even as I'm frustrated or disappointed by the sorry Twins offense, and I feel compelled to pick apart Ron Gardenhire, I know these things are insignificant next to the tragedy of what is unfolding in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.

To see New Orleans, birthplace of jazz, destroyed and mostly underwater while thousands of its people are stuck in chaos and squalor, and to think of the lost cultural and architectural history as well as all the lost lives, homes, communities, and ways of life, is deeply saddening to me. One of America's unique treasures is gone. The recovery and rebuilding of communities to take its place will require us to pull together and pitch in whatever we can do to help.

Please, keep the victims of the hurricane in your thoughts and prayers, and consider contributing to the relief efforts in any way that you're able.

Thank you.

Kristi in the comments provides this LINK with a message from the cat kingdom. (Scroll down after jumping to the new window.)

A Chicken with Its Head Cut Off

2005-09-01T11:22:00.000-05:00

Another 1-0 loss, this time with the novel twist of the Twins getting shut out despite 13 hits, or 16 baserunners in all. As Royals outfielder Terrence Long put it in perspective: "That's something we'd do--thirteen hits and not score." We have come to that, where the offense of our contending team is inventing ways to lose that remind players on the worst team in baseball of themselves.

Jacque Jones hit into a couple double plays and was thrown out trying to score from 2nd base on an infield hit, gambling that the pitcher covering 1st base wouldn't notice him trying to sneak home. Later, Ron Gardenhire followed up on his crackdown against boneheaded mistakes by telling the press, "I don't mind Jacque trying that. Heck, you think we're going to knock him in? Come on, don't start arguing when guys are trying to score."

Brent Abernathy also got thrown out trying to scurry back to 3rd base after a wild pitch to the backstop took a hard bounce right back to the Catcher. Michael Ryan got picked off while trying to get an early jump on stealing 2nd base against a lefty pitcher. The team left 6 runners stranded in scoring position. Of course, the manager made his own questionable judgment call in the 9th, when he again tapped Terry Mulholland in a crucial moment, relieving Matt Guerrier after Denny Hocking had singled and advanced to 2nd on a Terry Tiffee error. The old man mustered enough energy of the Tao to strike out Matt Stairs, but then lost the game in giving up a single to Emil Brown as Jesse Crain was warming in the pen.

Gardenhire defended his decision afterwards:

"You can't go with the same guy every night. That's all we're doing. We didn't even want to get Crain up. You can't do that every stinking day. We didn't even want to use Rincon today, but we had to. It's not about who we pitched today. We gave up one run. It's about offense. I think you guys could all agree with that one."

Yes, I agree it is hard to win when your offense is shut out for 9 innings. It's also true that Kyle Lohse and Juan Rincon still gave the team a fighting chance to win by shutting down the Royals for 8 innings, and those efforts were blown in part by decisions made by the manager in the 9th. Terrible baserunning and a dearth of clutch hitting do not wipe away all other factors in the game, including the manager's hand in the outcome.

Judging by the relievers' recent usage, and considering that today is a day off for the team, it appears that nobody in the pen really should have been unavailable to work that inning. I can see the sense in using Guerrier to start the inning, but why would you rely on Mulholland to get 3 outs with a runner already in scoring position?

Even if the manager felt like he was forced to use Mulholland because Crain was tired and he doesn't trust Romero to strand Hocking on base, well, who made the decision to keep Terry Mulholland on the team even at this late date? Yesterday after the game, Gardy mentioned that it will be nice to have Travis Bowyer and Francisco Liriano around in September "to take the pressure off" his core relievers. So why isn't one of them with the team already? Why is the club waiting until next week to bring the call-ups on board, if the manager is feeling such a pinch of available players now?

Gardenhire responds:

"Our reinforcement is getting Shannon (Stewart) back. Who's going to help us? We have the players up here who are the best players right now. We're talking depth off the bench. As far as guys who are going to help us in the lineup, Shannon's the guy."

Does he listen to himself? After talking about how he feels shorthanded, and how nice it will be to have Liriano and Bowyer join the team, he turns around and claims there is no urgent need for reinforcements, and nobody who can really help comes to his mind, anyway. Speak up if you believe that the 25 men on the roster are all the best Gardy might have under his command right now. Does the Twins manager really believe that Terry Mulholland is better than Francisco Liriano?

Hey, that's why he gets paid the Big Bucks. He's the boss.

Ex-Twins Stats

2005-08-31T18:05:00.000-05:00

As we enter the final month of the season, let's check in with some old friends....

This time, I've included VORP (Value Over Replacement-level Player), a statistic kept at Baseball Prospectus which measures
"The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." Or, innings pitched.

You'll note right away that Eric Milton is having a brutal season by any measure, but when you get down to reading Cristian Guzman's -20.2 VORP, keep in mind that by that particular measure he rates as absolutely the worst regular player in the majors this year.

E. Milton (Cin): 7-12, 6.21 ERA, -16.1 VORP
M. Redman (Pit): 5-14, 4.89 ERA, 12.1 VORP
K. Rogers (Tex): 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 40.7 VORP
L. Hawkins (SF): 1-5, 3.52 ERA, 7.3 VORP
Guardado (Sea): 1-1, 1.81 ERA, 29/31 Sv, 16.0 VORP
T. Jones (Fla): 1-4, 1.20 ERA, 32/34 Sv, 28.0 VORP
A. Fultz (Phi): 3-0, 2.25 ERA, 19.0 VORP
H. Carrasco (Was): 3-3, 2.13 ERA, 18.9 VORP
J. Baldwin (Balt): 0-2, 3.65 ERA, 8.8 VORP
S. Greisinger (Atl): 0-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.1 VORP (Released)

D. Ortiz (Bos): .294/.389/.587, 61.3 VORP
D. Mientkiewicz (NYM): .247/.330/.428, 7.0 VORP
A. Pierzynski (CWS): .265/.315/.445, 16.8 VORP
C. Koskie (Tor): .249/.334/.412, 7.2 VORP
C. Guzman (Was): .194/.231/.273, -20.2 VORP
T. Walker (Cubs): .303/.353/.477, 24.9 VORP
C. Blake (Cle): .248/.310/.433, 8.5 VORP
M. Lawton (NYY): .265/.364/.411, 21.8 VORP
D. Miller (Mil): .254/.318/.387, 11.5 VORP
M. Restovich (Pitt): .257/.322/.410, 2.2 VORP
D. Mohr (Col): .215/.276/.489, 1.4 VORP
B. Kielty (Oak): .261/.351/.382, 9.3 VORP
C. Allen (Tex): .283/.304/.340, -0.8 VORP
J. Offerman (NYM): .221/.295/.337, -1.1 VORP
C. Gomez (Balt): .287/.354/.357, 4.4 VORP
Q. McCracken (Ari): .230/.309/.289, -2.7 VORP
H. Blanco (Cubs): .236/.274/.374, 0.2 VORP
J. Valentin (Cin): .291/.380/.557, 22.3 VORP
C. Moeller (Mil): .208/.260/.339, -2.4 VORP
D. Ardoin (Col): .231/.295/.340, -1.3 VORP
D. Hocking (KC): .222/.326/.222, -1.0 VORP

MINORS

M. Kinney (SF, AAA): 7-7, 4.88 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
J. Roa (Pitt, AAA): 1-1, 6.05 ERA (DL)
Rowland-Smith (Sea, AA): 5-7, 4.44 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
T. Fiore (Bal, AAA): 9-4, 3.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
A. Johnson (Oak, AAA): 7.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14.2 IP

If I missed anyone, please let me know.

Third Base Line

2005-08-30T16:03:00.000-05:00

The Twins in the Gardenhire/Ullger Era have never had a strong offense, but in a season when many expected a boost in run production, how did the whole show turn into such a fiasco?

Today at the Third Base Line blog, TBL and I compare notes and lay bare the grizzly details. Join us to share your ideas on what can be done for next year.

Psychic Blows and Pondering the Hypotheticals (With Tables)

2005-08-30T04:13:00.000-05:00

I know he was facing the Royals, but Scott Baker's stuff looked very sharp last night. Low 90's fastball which he could dial up to 94-95 when he wanted, a change-up in the low 80's which had batters reaching, and a curveball to make Bert proud. Now why couldn't the club tap him to face Chicago last week? Oh, right. Probably the same reason Gardy didn't trust Jesse Crain to relieve Joe Nathan in Game 2 of the ALDS last year.

Here's hoping that Baker never sees the minor leagues again. He ought to stick in the Twins rotation for good.

The Twins offense, on the other hand, looks so, so sad. The only guys I really want to watch at the plate now are Joe Mauer and Jason Bartlett. Well, sometimes Ford and Cuddyer. The rest, I find myself zipping through their at-bats, thanks to the power of TiVo, until I see the ball put in play. I hate to watch a game that way, but the current pitch-by-pitch alternative is slow torture. Have you really thought about the fact--I mean, let it sink in--that the #1-2 hitters in the order right now are Michael Ryan and Nick Punto? Then, compounding that blow to the psyche, it's particularly depressing when you see the #3 hitter intentionally walked twice in a game because the opposing manager actually wants the cleanup hitter up to bat with runners in scoring position. That's the tumble Justin Morneau has taken since his mighty April.

Today I looked at Morneau's numbers for the first time in awhile; and although I knew he'd been struggling, it still seems hard to believe that he's really hitting .237/.304/.432 now. His EqA is .259, and by VORP he rates as the worst regular 1st baseman in the American League. Those who used to chortle, "Dougie Who?" where are you now?

Speaking of the intentional walks, either the manager needs to move another hitter behind Mauer again, or he might want to rethink his strategy when the #9 hitter gets into scoring position with no outs. Last night, after Bartlett doubled to lead off the 8th, Gardenhire had Michael Ryan lay down a sacrifice to move Bartlett to 3rd base--which Ryan did nicely. The trouble was, that left Little Nicky Punto (.241/.302/.333 coming into the game) with the responsibility of bringing him home with a hit or deep flyball. When he got swept under by the percentages, the Royals promptly gave a free pass to Mauer and dared Morneau to get a 2-out hit. Instead, he grounded out to Denny Hocking at 2nd base.

The whole scenario is depressing on so many levels, including the coup de grace of Denny Fricking Hocking appearing at the end to haunt me like the spectre of so many nightmares past. Was it only invented by my subconscious mind? I feel like I should write it down to have the scene analyzed. Did anyone see if Hocking was smoking a cigar? Was Morneau, in fact, swinging a banana at the plate? Or, perhaps an 18-inch State Fair Corndog? Luis Rivas wasn't lurking down at the end of the clubhouse tunnel, wading in a pool of water, was he?

Anyway, I know the team is having trouble scoring runs. But when you have a runner in scoring position with no outs, at this point, maybe you don't want to give away an out and leave Punto and Morneau even less of a margin for error than is really necessary.

Thankfully, the Twins finally did break through the KC bullpen in the 10th inning--or the Royals rather gave the game away. Shawn Camp, the fourth reliever out of the pen, walked Bartlett and Ryan. Then Punto hit a high fly into the Left-Center gap, which looked like a catchable ball, but Terrence Long could only wave at the ball as it landed and trundled to the wall, scoring both runners. Afterwards, the camera caught Long making a face as he shook his head at his Centerfielder. Maybe he thought the CF should have had it, or maybe he didn't like what his CF was saying to him. Maybe he was just reflecting on what kind of Supreme Being might have brought him to play in Kansas City this season.

Well, fortunately for the Twins and us fans, our bullpen is awesome--especially when it's Rincon and Nathan wrapping up the proceedings. So, Twins Win.

Still, watching the Twins lineup go through its paces this evening got me to wondering what the Twins' expected record might be if the team could swap offenses with the Red Sox or any other AL team.

Here are the expected team records, through 131 games, if each team's offense were supported by the Twins pitching staff:

Offense	W-L	Pct.	RS	RA
Red Sox	88-43	.669	746	525
Yankees	85-46	.647	711	525
Rangers	83-48	.637	695	525
Athletics	79-54	.599	642	525
Indians	78-53	.594	635	525
Blue Jays	77-54	.586	625	525
Devil Rays	77-54	.586	624	525
Tigers	76-55	.579	616	525
Angels	75-56	.575	611	525
White Sox	73-58	.557	592	525
Orioles	73-58	.555	586	525
Mariners	71-60	.545	575	525
Twins	71-60	.538	567	525
Royals	67-64	.512	538	525

Each team in the league would have an expected record above .500 if it had Twins-level pitching this season. The top team, Boston's offense + Minnesota's pitching and defense, would be on pace for 108 wins. If the Twins had the Devil Rays' 7th rated offense, right now they could be leading the Wild Card race by 2.5 games.

Here are the expected records if each team's pitching staff were supported by the Twins offense:

Pitch & Def	W-L	Pct.	RS	RA
White Sox	72-59	.548	567	515
Angels	71-60	.541	567	522
Twins	71-60	.538	567	525
Athletics	71-60	.537	567	526
Indians	67-64	.514	567	551
Blue Jays	65-66	.496	567	571
Mariners	60-71	.461	567	613
Tigers	59-72	.451	567	626
Yankees	59-72	.447	567	631
Orioles	57-74	.437	567	644
Red Sox	56-75	.428	567	656
Rangers	53-78	.402	567	691
Royals	48-83	.366	567	750
Devil Rays	46-85	.351	567	771

Most of the league would be drowning if attached to the anchor of the Twins offense. Only four teams besides the Twins have pitching good enough to keep afloat above .500 with that kind of run support. AL East powers Boston and New York would already be far out of contention by now--and imagine all the angst and heads exploding in the Northeast if that were the case. If the Twins actually had the Mariners' 7th rated pitching, right now they could be 4th in the AL Central.

Even the stingiest pitching & defense in the league, paired with the Twins offense, now would be on pace for just an expected 88 wins.

The Twins have a pitching staff that might be worthy of a pennant run, but it's tied to an offense that belongs locked in the cellar. This can't go on. A team simply cannot expect to win with this kind of offense. There are younger players who should be back and given a chance to show progress next year, out of necessity if for no other reason. But at the same time, some major revisions to the lineup plan are in order, too. Upgrades at 2B or 3B, DH, and throughout the outfield must be a priority. Nobody but Joe Mauer should be Untouchable. If we get another winter of controlling roster attrition and maintaining the status quo, it's a shame. Both the pitching staff and the Twins fans deserve better than this.

Fire In His Eyes

2005-08-29T11:31:00.000-05:00

The Uni Watch column by Paul Lukas at ESPN.com this week uses my photo of Joe Mauer with the gum stuck on his batting helmet. Sad to say, I get no credit. But I guess I'll forgive Lukas since he brings to my attention an especially interesting trend in sports eyewear, modeled here by former Twins catcher A.J. Pierzynski.

A.J. isn't turning into a cyborg or one of the Undead.

He's wearing an amber-tinted lense in his right eye, which filters out UV rays and almost all the light at the blue end of the spectrum. This not only cuts down on glare, but is said to improve contrast clarity and makes the white of the baseball stand out.

A.J. heartily endorses the product developed by Bausch & Lomb and Nike: "It definitely makes the ball stand out a little bit. When you're in the sun, you have to squint a little bit when you wear contacts. It distorts your vision a little bit, whereas when you wear these you don't have to squint."

Of course, the man also is hitting .264/.317/.450, quite a drop from his heyday with the Twins, so maybe there is more to this story than meets the eye.

If A.J. really had become one of the Undead, you wouldn't expect him just to come out and admit it, would you?

Spitting the Kool-Aid

2005-08-27T07:45:00.000-05:00

As SBG pointed out in yesterday's comment thread, Sid has declared that this season rates as Gardy's Best Managing Job Yet:

Managers get Manager of the Year awards when they win pennants.
Well, I believe Gardenhire has done a better job of managing this team than he did with any of his three Central Division champions.

For dealing with the injuries and the average replacements coming up from Class AAA Rochester, Gardenhire should get a medal for keeping this team in the wild-card race.

Nobody ever stopped Grandpa Sports from polishing anyone's apple before, so far be it from little ol' me to take away his homer hankie now. However, I would like to point out a few things....

1) The pitching staff, the strength of the team, has not suffered a significant injury loss all season. No member of the bullpen on Opening Day has been on the DL, and the regular rotation has made all but 4 starts. The Twins won 3 of those 4 starts, while Dave Gassner and Scott Baker combined for a 2-1 record and 4.12 ERA. Baker posted a 3.00 ERA in his pair of starts, while Gassner had a memorable Win in Cleveland before getting knocked out early in the dome by the Royals. Yet even when KC lit up Gassner, the Twins still won the game, 10-9.

2) Twins 2nd basemen this season have combined to hit .255/.315/.335. Not good. Yet, the Twins 2B's last year hit .257/.308/.425. Also poor, just a respectable amount of pop. But wait: is the team suffering at the position because the regular starter went down and the replacements weren't up to par?

No. Luis Rivas hit .257/.303/.297 in 43 games at the position. The veteran Bret Boone hit .170/.241/.170 in the two weeks of that disastrous experiment. Otherwise, the rest of the patchwork replacements have combined to hit .266/.333/.377. Nick Punto has hit .285/.337/.430 at 2B, and Brent Abernathy has hit .308/.378/.385 at the position. The manager can't blame the backups and AAA replacements for creating the hole here. That's mostly on Rivas and Boone. And who decided to bring back Rivas or take a flyer on Boone? Did Gardy approve?

3) The Shortstops have combined to hit .239/.278/.335, compared to .271/.310/.378 last year. That's a drop. But I think it's also fair to point out that Jason Bartlett was producing Guzman-level offense when he was sent down to AAA in May. It was the manager's choice to play the no-stick veteran utilityman Juan Castro in his place, who has hit .257/.276/.383 at the position, rather than see how the rookie Bartlett might have developed through the season. For whatever reason, Nick Punto's respectable bat at 2nd base has completely disappeared when he's played SS this year (.198/.250/.228 in 30 games), and it is also the manager's decision to keep sending him out there even since the promising rookie has rejoined the team.

Gardenhire must realize he's not going to get much offense when he writes Castro's name into the lineup, and that he's been getting auto-outs when he plays Punto at the spot, so I have to assume he just doesn't care. He's making a conscious choice to play experienced glovemen whom he trusts not to make careless errors in the field. That's his call, but then he forfeits the right to complain when his noodle bats fail to hold up their part of the offense, too.

4) Michael Cuddyer had a genuinely awful April. He's still struggling with consistency, and his numbers with runners on base/scoring position this season are poor. Odd, because last year he was excellent with men in scoring position. All that, plus his throwing problems at 3rd base, have made him a popular whipping boy and scapegoat. However, he has shown improvement at the plate and in the field since his rocky start to the season. Since the start of May, he's hit .270/.346/.441. I don't have fielding splits, but from watching I think his throws across the diamond have been much more consistent in the last couple months. As it happens, his .937 FP at 3rd base is even better than any other Twin to play the position this year, except for Nick Punto who hasn't made an error in 69 innings at the hot corner.

So after Gardenhire decided to stick with Cuddyer at the end of April, why did he take away the regular 3B job from Cuddyer in late June?

It looks like a typically knee-jerk move by the Twins manager: on June 22, Cuddyer had a hit in 3 at-bats but made 2 errors in an 8-1 loss to the Tigers. The Twins were losers of 4 straight games, and 9 of 12 dating to the start of their fateful series in Los Angeles, which we discussed yesterday. After winning 7 straight series, the Twins had now lost 4 series in a row--and would lose another in Milwaukee the following weekend. Michael Cuddyer would be the scapegoat. The next day, Glenn Williams was 2-for-4 as the 3rd baseman in a 6-2 win, giving him 10 hits in his first 8 games in the majors. Just like that, Cuddyer was back at Super Utility duty.

Cuddyer started one more game at 3B that month, the day after Williams got hurt, but then Cuddyer went on the Disabled List himself. When he returned, Gardy had decided he liked having utilitymen such as Punto and Rodriguez at the position.

Again, he made a conscious choice to forsake offense for slicker glovework. Nobody forced Gardenhire to bench his best bat at the position so he could watch utilitymen bat .221/.323/.337 (that excludes Tiffee and Williams). He's responsible for the consequences of his decisions.

5) Since Torii Hunter broke his ankle on July 29, his regular replacement Lew Ford has hit .282/.327/.437. Meanwhile, since Matt LeCroy became the regular DH, he's hitting .266/.348/.481. The offense scored 4.08 runs per game with Hunter in the lineup in July (and Torii hitting .270/.324/.340 for the month); 4.04 rpg without him in August.

How much of a handicap has Torii's injury proven to be, really?

We all know this offense is lousy; the Twins are tied with Seattle for 12th in runs scored in the AL. The team EqA of .249 rates 27th in the majors. Kansas City is the only AL team that is worse. But you know... it was pretty bad last year, too, when the team ranked 10th in the league in runs scored. It didn't just happen because the team got too young or the manager was stuck with scrubs who played worse than the regulars they replaced.

Terry Ryan had his chance to address weaknesses in the lineup last winter, and he opted instead to focus on limiting roster attrition, managing worst-case scenarios, and spending money on mediocre and poor talent, including some guys who were big parts of the problem last year. Even so, Gardenhire had options with upside throughout the lineup, which he often squandered by choosing to play slick glovemen who couldn't hit a lick.

The GM and Field Manager failed to get the most out of their resources this year, in a season when Shannon Stewart is having the worst year of his career, Jacque Jones has had two big months but was MIA for three, and the Team Leader in Centerfield had one good month at the plate and chose to mark the occasion by ripping his younger teammates in the press. You know, 34% of the team payroll is going to those three outfielders, but it's been a long time since I heard any of the grand pooh-bas talk about whether they're delivering value for the money. I certainly have not heard it this year.

The veteran outfielders are blameless! The manager is doing his Best Job Ever! We're giving freedom to the Iraqis! Hail, Dear Leader! Whatever's gone wrong, it's the fault of People Who Hate America and those damn Inexperienced Kids!

Here, have another glass of Kool-Aid.

Blame the Youth

2005-08-27T01:11:00.000-05:00

"I think we saw where we have a lot of young people that made some mistakes out there today that really hurt us... We didn't need them to come in here and win two out of three. The sad thing is we had chances out there. We just didn't get it done. We didn't finish them off today. We showed a little youngness in the clubhouse today, I thought."

--Ron Gardenhire, after losing 2-1 in extra innings to Chicago on Thursday

That's right, blame the youth for losing the Chicago series. I know, it's hard going up against Chicago when they're throwing Mark Buehrle at you and you're stuck matching him with a kid just up from Triple-A... oh, wait. Scott Baker won't join the team until Monday, right? Sorry, wrong parallel universe.

As it happened, after Buehrle and the White Sox beat Joe Mays on Wednesday, Chicago took the Thursday rubber match, 2-1, scoring the winning run in the 10th inning after Luis Rodriguez tried to swipe a tag on a runner coming to 3rd base, but missed, and then Timo Perez singled in the run. LaVelle's recap in the Strib also notes that Michael Cuddyer struck out looking at 3 pitches in the 9th, after getting to a 3-0 count. Michael Ryan, apparently still wet behind the ears at 28 years old, failed to take 3rd base although he was running with the pitch on a Cuddyer single up the middle; then he was thrown out at home trying to score on a hit by Terry Tiffee.

These are mistakes that may have lost the ballgame, but I'm not so sure they're necessarily mistakes of youth. Occasionally an infielder will miss a tag. We've all seen veteran players, even on this team, get lost on the basepaths. We've seen veterans strike out looking or choke in some other way in a crucial spot. I can't recall hearing Gardy rip octogenarians when Mulholland hangs a pitch that gets blasted into the bleachers. Why ya hatin' on your youth again, Gardy?

Besides, when the manager all but concedes Game 2 of the series by sending Joe Mays to the mound rather than skipping his turn or bringing in a fresh prospect, he forfeits the right to complain about the little mistakes that cost the team Game 3 and the set. He can talk about his players' brain cramps when he admits to one of his own.

The Tipping Point

2005-08-26T07:04:00.000-05:00

Today Bob Collins points out that the Twins began the season with a 49.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to Clay Davenport's calculations posted at Baseball Prospectus, which has dropped to a 7.4% chance as of yesterday morning. It's better than the 2% chance the team had on the morning of August 15, when I said there was nothing left to play for but pride. Still, it's quite a disappointing turn of fate since the hopeful days of springtime.

UPDATE: The Twins' postseason chances as of this morning are now 4.08%.

Even more interesting to me is to find that the Twins had a 71.6% chance of making the playoffs as late as the morning of June 12. The team had a 36-24 record (.600) and trailed Chicago by 4.5 games, but led the Wild Card standings by 4 games.

These were the Wild Card standings at that point:

Team	W-L	Pct.	GB
Twins	36-24	.600	--
Rangers	32-28	.533	4
Red Sox	32-29	.525	4.5
Indians	30-30	.500	6
Blue Jays	31-31	.500	6
Yankees	30-31	.492	6.5
Tigers	28-31	.459	7.5
Mariners	26-34	.433	10
Athletics	24-37	.393	12.5

On that Sunday afternoon of the 12th, the Twins would lose the rubber match of a series with the Dodgers, knocking the team's playoff odds down to 63.8% and beginning the hard fall out of the catbird seat, down to the longshot position they now occupy. That Sunday was the tipping point. What happened that weekend?

You may recall that Sunday game as the day Brad Radke served up 3 home runs to Hee Seop Choi! Hee Seop Choi! and visibly seethed after Gardy took the ball from him before Choi's fourth at-bat. Earlier, the manager also passed on his best chance to win the game, when he let Radke bat in the 6th inning with the score tied and with 2 runners in scoring position and 2 outs. Afterwards, he called out Juan Castro, a noodle bat who was only in the regular lineup because the manager thought so much of his glovework, and placed full blame on his #8 hitter for failing to get the runs home and leaving the mess to Radke. The man in charge apparently had no second thoughts about his decisions or priorities, and he accepted no responsibility for the consequences.

You may also recall that two days before, the Twins had battled back from a 4-1 early deficit to take a 5-5 tie into the bottom of the 9th, but Gardy tapped marginal middle reliever Terry Mulholland to pitch that inning, and Hee Seop Choi! Hee Seop Choi! launched the first pitch into the Rightfield seats to win the game.

You may further recall that the June weekend in LA capped off the road trip on which Gardy and his staff, with the notable help of Torii Hunter, used the local press to call out Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for lacking the macho fortitude to play through injuries. Gardy first put his needle to Morneau, a day after the 1st baseman told Gardy he was ready to play but Gardy had chosen to give him the extra day off. Then a few days later, to make sure that Mauer knew they were talking about him too, Gardy and his bullpen coach called him out by name in Jim Souhan's column. Gardenhire said that a pulled groin muscle "has nothing to do with catching." Rick Stelmaczek went so far as to say of Mauer: "The kid has been pretty well pampered the majority of his career."

Of course you remember that Mauer missed nearly all of last season while rehabbing from knee surgery, and probably aggravated his injury last summer by trying to come back too soon. This manager had been so worried about Mauer's condition even at the start of this season, he carried a 4th Catcher on the roster until May 5. One month later, he and his coaches were going to the press to all but call him Nancy.

They did this, you see, because the kid had just missed 5 starts with a groin injury, came back to play in 2 of 3 games in the next series, then asked for a few more days off because the injury still bothered him. The manager had to let the young lad know that his sick day quota was filled. He could play through pain or get ripped in the papers. Concern for the health of the franchise's cornerstone players, or dealing with rookies respectfully and behind closed doors, is not the way they do things around here.

It was not a banner week for Ron Gardenhire, either as a game tactician or a manager of players behind the scenes. And to think that the Twins traveled to Los Angeles riding high as winners of 7 straight series, and in a post entitled Good Times, I wrote that the Twins had been "such fun to watch, game commentary seems nearly beside the point...."

I felt such cocky optimism, like a fool I said, "Chicago keeps rolling along, but the Twins keep drafting off their bumper. They can't shake this team. No worries for the ChiSox, though. They can take solace in the knowledge that they still lead the wild card race by 7 games. There's a nice cushion for them when they fall."

Oy, the pain.

What followed that week may be coincidence, maybe not. Yet while we have seen Gardy jerk around a number of younger players, but do nothing to address the weaknesses of his favorite veterans and occasionally throw away his best chance to win games with poor tactical decisions, a .600 frontrunning team has posted a 31-36 record since that high water mark of the season.

Here's how the other teams in the wild card race have played in the meantime:

Team	W-L	Pct.	GB
Athletics	46-19	.708	--
Red Sox	40-24	.625	5.5
Yankees	40-25	.615	6
Indians	41-27	.603	6.5
Blue Jays	33-32	.508	13
Tigers	33-33	.500	13.5
Twins	31-36	.463	16
Mariners	28-38	.424	18.5
Rangers	27-39	.409	19.5

The Orioles are the only contender in the league to take a harder fall, with a 25-40 (.385) mark since they led the East that weekend, and their manager was fired a few weeks ago.

Is Ron Gardenhire just an innocent victim of misfortune since June 12, or is he part of the problem?

Is the manager of the Twins accountable for the dive his team has taken this summer? If not that, can he be held accountable for anything?

Time Waits for No Manager

2005-08-25T05:05:00.000-05:00

Earlier in the season, as certain younger players struggled to adjust to fulltime roles in the lineup, Gardy and his allies have suggested that he could not afford to be patient with developing kids, not in a year when the Twins were shooting for another division title and possibly the pennant. There was no time for errors and rookie mistakes, no time to wait for youngsters to find their swings, no time to let kids nurse their injuries, no time to worry about hurting any kid's feelings. Gardy this season has liked to say that he's just trying to win, and he'll ride the hot hands or play the guys whom he feels give his team the best chance to win on that day.

So why is Joe Mays still in the pitching rotation?

Joe Mays was a pleasant surprise early in the season, when he was 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA after pitching valiantly in a loss to the Yankees on June 4. One of the highlights of the spring was his complete game shutout of the Blue Jays on May 19. He even had a 5-3 record and 3.84 ERA as late as July 3, after beating Tampa Bay with 7 strong innings in a 3-2 victory. I was impressed that he'd come back so strong, immediately after missing a year while rehabbing after Tommy John surgery, and I felt glad for him.

Since that July 3 game, however, his arm must be wearing down. He hasn't been completely awful lately, but pretty bad more often than not. In his last 9 starts, he's allowed 40 runs in 45.1 innings, a 7.94 ERA, and the team has lost 8 of the 9 games. Even when Mays put up a decent line and notched a 'W' last week against Seattle, he seemed to be dodging trouble through much of his 6 innings, while facing one of the worst offenses in the league.

Let's take a moment to look at the individual VORP (Value Over Replacement Pitcher) figures for the Twins pitching staff:

NAME                VORP
Johan Santana       50.2
Brad Radke          33.0
Carlos Silva        40.4
Kyle Lohse          25.5
Joe Mays             1.9
Jesse Crain         18.3
Juan Rincon         17.7
Joe Nathan          19.1
Matt Guerrier       12.9
Terry Mulholland     0.1
J.C. Romero          9.7
Scott Baker          4.5
Dave Gassner        -2.0

What does this say? Johan is again one of the elite pitchers of the league. Silva has been unexpectedly outstanding. Radke and Lohse are solid values by the standards of #3-4 pitchers. The Twins have a deep corps of strong righthanded relievers; Romero isn't great, but he's not garbage. Terry Mulholland, however, is practically worthless, or no better than a replacement-level pitcher from AAA. Not much better is Joe Mays, whose value is even lower than Scott Baker's rating in an admittedly small sample of 13 innings.

All that Mays contributed in the first half of the season has been nearly negated by his performances in the last 7 weeks. There's no question, he's hurting his team by taking his turn in the rotation lately. So why is he still getting the ball, when the team has no time for patience?

Why wasn't he skipped in the rotation this week?

Why hasn't he been demoted to the pen?

Patrick Reusse writes that when a reporter asked him about it last night, Gardy shot back:

"If you can figure out a way to get a pitcher up here, with all of our players down and hurt, and tell me who you want to take off this roster to bring a pitcher up here ," Gardenhire said.

He added: "You're a little smarter than I am, because I can't figure it out. We're really stuck here."

Another reporter loitered in the manager's office, then offered a solution: Designate Mays for assignment and call up Scott Baker (he pitched well in a Class AAA start Tuesday) to face the Royals.

"That's not the way we do things here," Gardenhire said. "We have too much respect for Joe. If we did that, the guys in that clubhouse ... let's just say they would be very upset, knowing what Joe's gone through to get back here."

I guess the manager might have time to worry about hurting a player's feelings, after all. If it's one of his senior veterans.

Maybe I am a little smarter than the Twins manager--pshaw, Gardy, just a little?--but I have a couple alternate ideas if the club is too genteel to push Joe Mays out the door before the season is over.

For one thing, Matt Guerrier could take that next scheduled start in Kansas City on Monday. Aside from his mulligan outing last weekend, he's done an excellent job in middle relief all season. He has the stamina to pitch at least 5 innings, and his fastball and curve are good enough to get through the Royals order at least a couple times. That would get the club through the end of the month, when Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano could come up, then the manager would have until Saturday next week to decide on who should start against the Indians.

Or, and I know this is a wild idea, but I'm just brainstorming here... maybe, just maybe, the team already could have cut the cord on Terry Mulholland? As nice as it must feel to the manager to have a veteran pitcher around who can boast of a rubber arm and never complains about his role because he's happy just to be on the team, you don't see many serious contenders go out of their way to carry 42 year-old pitchers with a sore back and a 5.40 ERA while allowing batters to hit .281/.332/.464. The old man's availability is even day-to-day lately because of his back pain. Hasn't it occurred to the GM and manager of this outfit that they could have created a roster spot by at least putting Terry Mulholland on the Disabled List?

Time's running out on the season. If Gardy didn't have the luxury to wait for players to come around before, he certainly doesn't have it now. Why are we waiting for September 1st to roll around before putting Mays on the shelf? Why hasn't someone made the necessary moves to get Baker or Liriano in the Twins rotation already? Why can't it happen NOW?

I ask you.

Twins 1, White Sox 0

2005-08-24T04:13:00.000-05:00

Now that's a Staff Ace:
No crying for run support.
Zeroes? Back at ya.