Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Fortunately, They Still Play the Games on the Field

Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus has his Postseason Odds up:

Average wins needed to win AL Central: 96.5

AL Central Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
White Sox 95.0 67.0 69.93150 13.71066 83.64217
Twins 85.6 75.4 8.61810 13.33469 21.95279
Indians 89.3 72.7 19.82590 25.61556 45.44146
Tigers 80.7 80.3 1.62450 3.30221 4.92671
Royals 58.7 103.3 .00000 .00000 .00000

The data shows the average wins & losses as well as percentages of how often each team wins the division, claims the wild card, or makes the playoffs either way in a sample of a million simulations of the rest of the season.

The good news: the report indicates that the wild card team will most likely come from the Central for the first time.

The bad news: the report suggests the Indians are more likely to make the playoffs than the Twins. The current wild card leaders went on to claim that fourth spot in the postseason in just 13.3% of a million sims, making the playoffs about 22% of the time. Hmm.

I think this team should be good for more than 85-86 wins. If that's the average total in the sims, how often do the Twins fall splat and wind up with 78-81 victories?

Food for thought. Take it for whatever you think it's worth.


At 7/14/2005 5:39 PM, Blogger SBG said...

Good stuff.

A little more sophisticated than my recent stab at things, which was nothing more that a rough estimate. (What? I'm not as statistically gifted as the guys at BP???) I will say, however, that in one of my analyses I also had the Twins at 85-87 wins.

I also believe that they'll do better than that. But, I do believe and have said that the Indians have a better shot at the playoffs than the Twins. I also think that the Yankees now have a better shot.

I hate to be pessimistic about this, but I can't help it.

At 7/15/2005 1:23 PM, Anonymous Kristi said...

That's nice but we want kitties.

At 7/15/2005 5:24 PM, Blogger frightwig said...

Later, later!

At 7/15/2005 9:49 PM, Blogger Jonzard said...

Corey Patterson is going to have a breakout year and make many all star games for years to come.

Thats what Baseball Prospectus said a few months back. Things don't always turn out the way they think it will.

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