The Tipping Point

Today Bob Collins points out that the Twins began the season with a 49.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to Clay Davenport's calculations posted at Baseball Prospectus, which has dropped to a 7.4% chance as of yesterday morning. It's better than the 2% chance the team had on the morning of August 15, when I said there was nothing left to play for but pride. Still, it's quite a disappointing turn of fate since the hopeful days of springtime.

UPDATE: The Twins' postseason chances as of this morning are now 4.08%.

Even more interesting to me is to find that the Twins had a 71.6% chance of making the playoffs as late as the morning of June 12. The team had a 36-24 record (.600) and trailed Chicago by 4.5 games, but led the Wild Card standings by 4 games.

These were the Wild Card standings at that point:

Team	W-L	Pct.	GB
Twins	36-24	.600	--
Rangers	32-28	.533	4
Red Sox	32-29	.525	4.5
Indians	30-30	.500	6
Blue Jays	31-31	.500	6
Yankees	30-31	.492	6.5
Tigers	28-31	.459	7.5
Mariners	26-34	.433	10
Athletics	24-37	.393	12.5

On that Sunday afternoon of the 12th, the Twins would lose the rubber match of a series with the Dodgers, knocking the team's playoff odds down to 63.8% and beginning the hard fall out of the catbird seat, down to the longshot position they now occupy. That Sunday was the tipping point. What happened that weekend?

You may recall that Sunday game as the day Brad Radke served up 3 home runs to Hee Seop Choi! Hee Seop Choi! and visibly seethed after Gardy took the ball from him before Choi's fourth at-bat. Earlier, the manager also passed on his best chance to win the game, when he let Radke bat in the 6th inning with the score tied and with 2 runners in scoring position and 2 outs. Afterwards, he called out Juan Castro, a noodle bat who was only in the regular lineup because the manager thought so much of his glovework, and placed full blame on his #8 hitter for failing to get the runs home and leaving the mess to Radke. The man in charge apparently had no second thoughts about his decisions or priorities, and he accepted no responsibility for the consequences.

You may also recall that two days before, the Twins had battled back from a 4-1 early deficit to take a 5-5 tie into the bottom of the 9th, but Gardy tapped marginal middle reliever Terry Mulholland to pitch that inning, and Hee Seop Choi! Hee Seop Choi! launched the first pitch into the Rightfield seats to win the game.

You may further recall that the June weekend in LA capped off the road trip on which Gardy and his staff, with the notable help of Torii Hunter, used the local press to call out Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for lacking the macho fortitude to play through injuries. Gardy first put his needle to Morneau, a day after the 1st baseman told Gardy he was ready to play but Gardy had chosen to give him the extra day off. Then a few days later, to make sure that Mauer knew they were talking about him too, Gardy and his bullpen coach called him out by name in Jim Souhan's column. Gardenhire said that a pulled groin muscle "has nothing to do with catching." Rick Stelmaczek went so far as to say of Mauer: "The kid has been pretty well pampered the majority of his career."

Of course you remember that Mauer missed nearly all of last season while rehabbing from knee surgery, and probably aggravated his injury last summer by trying to come back too soon. This manager had been so worried about Mauer's condition even at the start of this season, he carried a 4th Catcher on the roster until May 5. One month later, he and his coaches were going to the press to all but call him Nancy.

They did this, you see, because the kid had just missed 5 starts with a groin injury, came back to play in 2 of 3 games in the next series, then asked for a few more days off because the injury still bothered him. The manager had to let the young lad know that his sick day quota was filled. He could play through pain or get ripped in the papers. Concern for the health of the franchise's cornerstone players, or dealing with rookies respectfully and behind closed doors, is not the way they do things around here.

It was not a banner week for Ron Gardenhire, either as a game tactician or a manager of players behind the scenes. And to think that the Twins traveled to Los Angeles riding high as winners of 7 straight series, and in a post entitled Good Times, I wrote that the Twins had been "such fun to watch, game commentary seems nearly beside the point...."

I felt such cocky optimism, like a fool I said, "Chicago keeps rolling along, but the Twins keep drafting off their bumper. They can't shake this team. No worries for the ChiSox, though. They can take solace in the knowledge that they still lead the wild card race by 7 games. There's a nice cushion for them when they fall."

Oy, the pain.

What followed that week may be coincidence, maybe not. Yet while we have seen Gardy jerk around a number of younger players, but do nothing to address the weaknesses of his favorite veterans and occasionally throw away his best chance to win games with poor tactical decisions, a .600 frontrunning team has posted a 31-36 record since that high water mark of the season.

Here's how the other teams in the wild card race have played in the meantime:

Team	W-L	Pct.	GB
Athletics	46-19	.708	--
Red Sox	40-24	.625	5.5
Yankees	40-25	.615	6
Indians	41-27	.603	6.5
Blue Jays	33-32	.508	13
Tigers	33-33	.500	13.5
Twins	31-36	.463	16
Mariners	28-38	.424	18.5
Rangers	27-39	.409	19.5

The Orioles are the only contender in the league to take a harder fall, with a 25-40 (.385) mark since they led the East that weekend, and their manager was fired a few weeks ago.

Is Ron Gardenhire just an innocent victim of misfortune since June 12, or is he part of the problem?

Is the manager of the Twins accountable for the dive his team has taken this summer? If not that, can he be held accountable for anything?