Smack

Even with the White Sox losses Tuesday and Wednesday in Oakland, Chicago at 16-6 is off to their best start since... oh, since noneofustwinsfansreallycare. Probably the early '80s when Tony LaRussa was in the Old Comiskey dugout wearing the SOX softball uniform. Now all of a sudden you can't venture into decent society without tripping over giddy South Side fans who believe their GM in one offseason has brilliantly copied the Twins formula for winning the division and now it's all over but for the champagne and speeches.

I'm still not buying it. It looks like the Sox won't slip to 4th place like I brazenly predicted last month, but I still don't see them running away with the division, either. Some Twins fans have asserted that the ChiSox will fall apart by midseason because "it's what they always do," and I've heard the accusations that we're starting to sound like Yankees fans who used to believe their team would forever own the Red Sox because it had been that way for generations and so they regarded their superiority as a birthright. But I won't claim that the standings of the last 4 years dictate that the White Sox must fail again. I have my reasons to believe that Chicago will fall apart. Ozzie's "smart ball" cannot hold.

Let's talk about why.

The Sox have a .309 team on-base pct. David Schoenfield mentioned this in his ESPN column this week, so I'll get it out of the way to start. Through 22 games, the Sox are hitting .262/.309/.395, and their 47 walks ranks last in the league. Now, I don't know if they can improve on that the rest of the year; but there has been a lot of hype about the Small Sox playing a new brand of exciting "smart ball" to kick off the season, and I think it's only fair to point out that if a team plans to win with streams of singles, walks, bunts, and aggressive baserunning rather than power, it had better improve upon that .309 on-base pct. and 2.14 walks per game. And not by a little.

The bats driving the Sox offense have been Everett, Konerko and Crede, the usual #3, 4, and 8 hitters in the lineup. So?

Carl Everett used to be a good hitter with some pop who knew how to control the strike zone; but in the four seasons since he became an overnight sensation and hot button talk show topic as Crazy Carl, menace to umpires, authority on child discipline, and Biblical scholar who didn't believe in dinosaurs--oh yeah, and the All-Star CF for the Red Sox--sightings of his old skills at the plate have been rare. From 2001-4, he hit .270/.338/.455, and really even that line is inflated by his one good season split between Texas and Chicago in 2003. Last year he was frequently hurt and overweight, and regressed to bat a lousy .260/.319/.402 in 82 games. Right now he's whacking a hacktastic .276/.306/.500; which may be OK as long as he keeps up his pace for 37 doubles and 29 HR, but I wouldn't count it. Certainly if he were my team's #3 hitter, I'd feel concerned.

Paul Konerko is hitting .241/.333/.544, an 878 OPS which represents about as much value as he's ever shown he can give. He might hit for a better avg and on-base pct., but it's not a given. In 2003, he hit .234/.305/.399 for no apparent reason. I'd say it's more likely that his on-base stays about the same but his slg pct. comes down towards his .481 career level. Right now he's hitting like an All or Nothing guy. If his power dips into a slump, what's left in the cleanup spot but a whole lotta Nothing?

Joe Crede is driving the ball like it's set on a tee, posting a line of .315/.367/.479 so far from the bottom third of the order. Looks great, especially from a guy who hit .256/.304/.434 through his first 1402 plate appearances in the big leagues. Now, it's possible that at age 27 he's about to have a breakout, career-making year. He was a pretty good hitter in the minors. But White Sox fans should consider that a bonus if it happens, not a given. I'll tip my cap if he's still doing it down the stretch.

Some fall-off by those three may be compensated by improved production from Aaron Rowand and Jermaine Dye. Rowand is mired in a slump dating back to last September, but otherwise he had a big breakout season in 2004. Dye probably won't put up a 506 OPS all season, as he is now; on the other hand, he made a habit of disappointing the A's in recent years, and put up a 514 OPS in an injury-shortened year of 2003. Even if Dye picks himself up, he's not someone to count on to carry an offense if Everett and Konerko falter. He's an average corner outfield bat, at best.

Oh, I am sometimes reminded by Sox fans that they just have to hold out for Frank Thomas to return, and all will be well. In other words, the New Style of Smallball is going to work because the emblematic icon of the Sox Old Style of Slugball will be coming back next month on his gimpy ankle to drive the show. Frank's a great hitter, still better than people give him credit for being anymore, but he's turning 37 next month and last Fall he had a bone graft and two screws inserted into his ankle. He's gonna come back and hit like an MVP again?

I guess he better. I don't see anyone else in the Sox lineup, with the possible exception of Rowand, who looks capable of stepping up to carry the offense if Everett and Konerko get hurt or slump. As things stand, even with Everett and Konerko doing about all they can do, Chicago ranks 8th in the AL with 100 runs scored. Oh, by the way, they're also outperforming their Runs Created figure by about 9 runs. Did I mention that? The other shoe is going to drop on this lineup. It's just a question of when.


What about the pitching? The New Small Sox are built around pitching and defense!

Seeing that the Sox are a ridiculous 9-2 in one-run games so far only leads me to expect some regression to the mean, as well. People commonly believe that a strong bullpen leads to a better record in one-run games, but I have never seen a direct correlation. For instance, Florida right now has the best bullpen ERA in the majors, yet the team is 0-4 in one-run games. Seattle, the Angels, Houston, and Minnesota round out the Top 5 on the bullpen ERA chart, and their combined record in one-run games is 16-17. The #6-10 bullpens on the chart represent teams with a 10-18 record in one-run games. Add 'em up, you'll see that the 10 best bullpens in the majors by ERA have helped their teams to a combined 26-39 record in one-run contests this season. The White Sox bullpen ranks 12th on that list, or 6th in the AL.

The White Sox might keep up that kind of success in tight games all season, like I might run the craps table at the Bellagio all night and walk out a millionaire. It could happen, but good luck.

OK, let's look at the Sox rotation....

Mark Buehrle is one of the better pitchers in the league. I wouldn't be shocked to see him sustain his current 3.89 ERA. It's the same number he put up last year, in fact. But what about the rest of this Gang of Five?

Freddy Garcia currently has a 2.83 ERA through 5 starts. I know Garcia pretty well from his years with the Mariners; his talent can be awesome to watch when he's on his game. In 2001 and the first half of 2002, he put it all together to become an All-Star and legitimate Cy Young contender. He seemed to be on the cusp of great things. Since July 2002, he's been more of a great enigma. Is he a head case? Does he party too much? Is there a mechanical problem? Is he tipping pitches? Has he been hiding an injury? Who knows? The only thing you can count on is that he'll tease you with stretches of greatness for a month or two, only to go back into the tank again for no apparent reason. Right now he's representing the apex of his ability. The last two and a half seasons, Freddy the Flake has posted a 4.44 ERA in 506.2 IP. That's the general ballpark figure I'd expect him to post by the end of the year.

Orlando Hernandez is sporting a 2.35 ERA, but a 1.70 WHIP. His page at ESPN claims he's 35; Baseball Reference online says he's 39. I say, exactly. He's nearing the end of the line and hasn't had anything like a full season in good health since 2000. He missed all of 2003, pitched just the second half of last season for the Yankees and made only one postseason appearance, despite being their best pitcher down the stretch, because his arm was hurting again. By the time the Twins meet up with Chicago again in August, I don't expect El Duque to be a factor.

Jose Contreras? He pulled up lame with a bad hamstring in his last start. He was hit or miss in New York, as well as after the trade to Chicago last season, and got labeled as someone who couldn't handle pressure. Still a lot to prove. We'll see.

Jon Garland, I have been impressed by him lately. He's getting some wicked movement on his ball that I don't remember of him before, and that 1.80 ERA is just silly. About as silly as it would seem if Kyle Lohse did the same thing over his next 5 starts. That's the problem for Chicago. I don't expect Kyle Lohse to win the Cy Young this year, nor Jon Garland and his 3.30 K/9 rate.

The Sox defense does look significantly improved so far, but glovework can only do so much to mask shaky pitching. Remember the Sox pitching staff ERA rated 11th in the AL last season, and was the worst after the All-Star break. The key figures on that staff are back, and I'm not too impressed by the additions of Hernandez, Dustin Hermanson, and Luis Vizcaino. It's gonna take some kind of alchemy to turn that lump into gold. What we're seeing now is just pyrite. I don't see Kenny Williams' master plan panning out.

Not this year.