Psychic Blows and Pondering the Hypotheticals (With Tables)

I know he was facing the Royals, but Scott Baker's stuff looked very sharp last night. Low 90's fastball which he could dial up to 94-95 when he wanted, a change-up in the low 80's which had batters reaching, and a curveball to make Bert proud. Now why couldn't the club tap him to face Chicago last week? Oh, right. Probably the same reason Gardy didn't trust Jesse Crain to relieve Joe Nathan in Game 2 of the ALDS last year.

Here's hoping that Baker never sees the minor leagues again. He ought to stick in the Twins rotation for good.

The Twins offense, on the other hand, looks so, so sad. The only guys I really want to watch at the plate now are Joe Mauer and Jason Bartlett. Well, sometimes Ford and Cuddyer. The rest, I find myself zipping through their at-bats, thanks to the power of TiVo, until I see the ball put in play. I hate to watch a game that way, but the current pitch-by-pitch alternative is slow torture. Have you really thought about the fact--I mean, let it sink in--that the #1-2 hitters in the order right now are Michael Ryan and Nick Punto? Then, compounding that blow to the psyche, it's particularly depressing when you see the #3 hitter intentionally walked twice in a game because the opposing manager actually wants the cleanup hitter up to bat with runners in scoring position. That's the tumble Justin Morneau has taken since his mighty April.

Today I looked at Morneau's numbers for the first time in awhile; and although I knew he'd been struggling, it still seems hard to believe that he's really hitting .237/.304/.432 now. His EqA is .259, and by VORP he rates as the worst regular 1st baseman in the American League. Those who used to chortle, "Dougie Who?" where are you now?

Speaking of the intentional walks, either the manager needs to move another hitter behind Mauer again, or he might want to rethink his strategy when the #9 hitter gets into scoring position with no outs. Last night, after Bartlett doubled to lead off the 8th, Gardenhire had Michael Ryan lay down a sacrifice to move Bartlett to 3rd base--which Ryan did nicely. The trouble was, that left Little Nicky Punto (.241/.302/.333 coming into the game) with the responsibility of bringing him home with a hit or deep flyball. When he got swept under by the percentages, the Royals promptly gave a free pass to Mauer and dared Morneau to get a 2-out hit. Instead, he grounded out to Denny Hocking at 2nd base.

The whole scenario is depressing on so many levels, including the coup de grace of Denny Fricking Hocking appearing at the end to haunt me like the spectre of so many nightmares past. Was it only invented by my subconscious mind? I feel like I should write it down to have the scene analyzed. Did anyone see if Hocking was smoking a cigar? Was Morneau, in fact, swinging a banana at the plate? Or, perhaps an 18-inch State Fair Corndog? Luis Rivas wasn't lurking down at the end of the clubhouse tunnel, wading in a pool of water, was he?

Anyway, I know the team is having trouble scoring runs. But when you have a runner in scoring position with no outs, at this point, maybe you don't want to give away an out and leave Punto and Morneau even less of a margin for error than is really necessary.

Thankfully, the Twins finally did break through the KC bullpen in the 10th inning--or the Royals rather gave the game away. Shawn Camp, the fourth reliever out of the pen, walked Bartlett and Ryan. Then Punto hit a high fly into the Left-Center gap, which looked like a catchable ball, but Terrence Long could only wave at the ball as it landed and trundled to the wall, scoring both runners. Afterwards, the camera caught Long making a face as he shook his head at his Centerfielder. Maybe he thought the CF should have had it, or maybe he didn't like what his CF was saying to him. Maybe he was just reflecting on what kind of Supreme Being might have brought him to play in Kansas City this season.

Well, fortunately for the Twins and us fans, our bullpen is awesome--especially when it's Rincon and Nathan wrapping up the proceedings. So, Twins Win.

Still, watching the Twins lineup go through its paces this evening got me to wondering what the Twins' expected record might be if the team could swap offenses with the Red Sox or any other AL team.

Here are the expected team records, through 131 games, if each team's offense were supported by the Twins pitching staff:

Offense	W-L	Pct.		RS	RA
Red Sox	88-43	.669		746	525
Yankees	85-46	.647		711	525
Rangers	83-48	.637		695	525
Athletics	79-54	.599		642	525
Indians	78-53	.594		635	525
Blue Jays	77-54	.586		625	525
Devil Rays	77-54	.586		624	525
Tigers	76-55	.579		616	525
Angels	75-56	.575		611	525
White Sox	73-58	.557		592	525
Orioles	73-58	.555		586	525
Mariners	71-60	.545		575	525
Twins	71-60	.538		567	525
Royals	67-64	.512		538	525

Each team in the league would have an expected record above .500 if it had Twins-level pitching this season. The top team, Boston's offense + Minnesota's pitching and defense, would be on pace for 108 wins. If the Twins had the Devil Rays' 7th rated offense, right now they could be leading the Wild Card race by 2.5 games.

Here are the expected records if each team's pitching staff were supported by the Twins offense:

Pitch & Def	W-L	Pct.		RS	RA
White Sox	72-59	.548		567	515
Angels	71-60	.541		567	522
Twins	71-60	.538		567	525
Athletics	71-60	.537		567	526
Indians	67-64	.514		567	551
Blue Jays	65-66	.496		567	571
Mariners	60-71	.461		567	613
Tigers	59-72	.451		567	626
Yankees	59-72	.447		567	631
Orioles	57-74	.437		567	644
Red Sox	56-75	.428		567	656
Rangers	53-78	.402		567	691
Royals	48-83	.366		567	750
Devil Rays	46-85	.351		567	771

Most of the league would be drowning if attached to the anchor of the Twins offense. Only four teams besides the Twins have pitching good enough to keep afloat above .500 with that kind of run support. AL East powers Boston and New York would already be far out of contention by now--and imagine all the angst and heads exploding in the Northeast if that were the case. If the Twins actually had the Mariners' 7th rated pitching, right now they could be 4th in the AL Central.

Even the stingiest pitching & defense in the league, paired with the Twins offense, now would be on pace for just an expected 88 wins.

The Twins have a pitching staff that might be worthy of a pennant run, but it's tied to an offense that belongs locked in the cellar. This can't go on. A team simply cannot expect to win with this kind of offense. There are younger players who should be back and given a chance to show progress next year, out of necessity if for no other reason. But at the same time, some major revisions to the lineup plan are in order, too. Upgrades at 2B or 3B, DH, and throughout the outfield must be a priority. Nobody but Joe Mauer should be Untouchable. If we get another winter of controlling roster attrition and maintaining the status quo, it's a shame. Both the pitching staff and the Twins fans deserve better than this.