Breaking Down the Offense; or, Gawking at the Broken-Down

In thinking about the Twins offense, where things went wrong and what might be done to improve, I thought it might be interesting to compare the Twins regulars to other players at each position throughout the majors.

The first player listed in each table is the Twins starter, with his ranking at the position including both leagues, according to VORP, the run value above a replacement-level player. I've also included the standard batting line, the park-adjusted OPS, the Equivalent Average figure, and the Win Shares value which accounts for both offense and defense. The lines under the Twins starter feature the best in the league at the position, then 5th best, 10th best, and 15th best, to help highlight the difference between varying grades of performance and what the Twins had going for them.

Catcher	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(3) Mauer	.294/.372/.411	108	.289	40.5	23
(1) Martinez	.305/.378/.405	132	.309	60.3	22
(5) Posada	.262/.352/.430	105	.285	32.6	19
(10) J. Lopez	.278/.332/.458	110	.278	24.7	12
(15) Lieberthal	.263/.336/.418	91	.261	21.1	11

Let's start with the bright spot, the one genuine star in the lineup this season. At age 22, with just 35 games worth of experience and still rehabbing his knee coming into the season, Joe Mauer is already one of the top Catchers in the majors. Measuring by VORP, only Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek had more value at the plate this year, but his high on-base pct. combined with his superior skills behind the plate puts him at the very top of his profession according to Win Shares. Only Mike Matheny and Brad Ausmus had more defensive value by that measure. The kid did everything this year but hit for power, but that was even more true of Victor Martinez when he first came up, too.

Over the next decade, I look forward to the ongoing debate on "Who's better: Mauer or Martinez?" as both of them should be steady fixtures at the All-Star Game.

Mike Redmond also proved to be a shrewd signing by Terry Ryan, as his 8.6 VORP and 7 Win Shares rated him as one of the best backup Catchers this season. (Henry Blanco in Chicago was worth 2.6 VORP and 5 Win Shares, backing up the best Catcher in the NL, Michael Barrett.) The Twins enjoyed a lot of value out of the position, with 30 Win Shares between the starter and primary backup--or 17 Win Shares above what an average bench player would be expected to contribute given the same amount of playing opportunities. Given that each Win Share is worth one-third of a win to the team, that's 5.67 extra wins beyond the value of average scrubs at one position, more than 4 extra wins credited to Mauer.

1st Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(38) Morneau	.239/.304/.437	94	.261	8.6	8
(1) D. Lee	.335/.418/.662	177	.346	106.0	37
(5) Helton	.320/.445/.534	144	.325	67.4	26
(10) C. Tracy	.308/.358/.553	131	.278	47.5	21
(15) Hillenbrand	.291/.343/.449	108	.279	32.5	15

Unfortunately, Morneau wasn't quite up to playing Diz to Mauer's Bird just yet. They say he was bedeviled by ailments and injuries all year, particularly some loose bone chips in his elbow. Let's hope that explains everything, and that simply a winter of rest will be just what the Doctor ordered to get him at his best next year.

This year, his struggles really dug a hole for the team. I hate to single him out, and I strongly believe his manager and coaches did him wrong by raking him in the media, but there's no getting around the fact that an 8.6 VORP for the regular 1st baseman is a tough handicap to overcome. The difference between Justin Morneau and Derrek Lee this year was about 10 wins. Even the difference between Morneau and a mediocre/fair 1B could have been 2-4 wins. There were 14 1B/DH's in the majors worth 20 or more Win Shares, and 5 more worth at least 15.

He has to take several steps up next season, but I support giving him a full opportunity to make good. In the meantime, it might be wise to swing a deal for someone who could share his burden at 1B/DH. Lyle Overbay, worth 33.3 VORP and 18 Win Shares, might do nicely if the Brewers are ready to make way for Prince Fielder.

Desig. Hitter	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(8) LeCroy	.260/.354/.444	111	.285	17.9	8
Lew Ford	.264/.338/.377	90	.263	15.3	13
(1) Ortiz	.300/.397/.604	161	.337	85.8	31
(5) J. Gomes	.282/.371/.534	139	.318	36.9	14
(10) Kotchman	.278/.350/.484	124	.296	9.2	4

I included Ford in this box, although his VORP is based on his value as a Centerfielder. He gets 3 Win Shares for his fielding, and in that category he has the advantage of 240 more plate appearances than LeCroy, as well.

As I said earlier in the week, I think LeCroy is a nice value for the money, particularly if you keep him in a platoon role and let him munch on lefty pitching like so many crawdads. Just cutting him loose at this point, when he should at least have some trade value, doesn't make much sense to me. That said, the GM probably shouldn't have much trouble replacing Matty's overall value in the lineup, either. Out of his 350 PA's this season, just 145 were against lefties. The club might not get another bat who can post a 1.025 OPS against lefties, but 145 PA's is still a minor hole to fill--and there should be an upgrade with whoever takes LeCroy's 200-odd plate appearances against righthanders. Trading for David Dellucci from Texas is one idea worth exploring.

2nd Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(36) L. Rodriguez	.269/.325/.383	90	.262	4.6	6
(1) Roberts	.313/.384/.524	145	.320	69.1	28
(5) Soriano	.268/.309/.512	110	.285	47.8	16
(10) Durham	.290/.355/.429	107	.275	32.2	15
(15) Cano	.296/.316/.457	102	.275	27.3	12

The Curse of Todd Walker lives on.

Out of the patchwork of day laborers the Twins hired to play 2nd base this year, Luis Rodriguez had the most value on offense, such as it was. Nick Punto is a better fielder, but his VORP was -2.2. Even Luis Rivas by the end of the season managed a positive 1.1 VORP.

Of course offense can be more at a premium at this position, but there tend to be bargain finds floating around each year who end up giving good value for the dollar. Mark Grudzielanek signed for $1m to move to St. Louis last winter, and his performance for the Cards was worth 23.1 VORP and 18 Win Shares. The Reds also pulled Rich Aurilia out of the scrap pile and got 26.1 VORP and 16 Win Shares in the bargain. Tony Graffanino was paid $1.1m to hit .309/.366/.425, worth 25.8 VORP for KC and Boston. And kudos to the White Sox for taking a chance on Tadahito Iguchi, a relatively cheap free agent at $2.3m albeit somewhat risky as a 30 year-old with no experience outside Japan. While the Twins wasted more than that much cash on Rivas and Juan Castro, Iguchi was worth 30.9 VORP and 17 Win Shares at 2nd base for Chicago, giving them a nice spark at the top of the order. Ron Belliard has been a similar bargain value for Cleveland the last couple years. Todd Walker himself was paid $2.5m to hit .305/.355/.474 (115 OPS+) this year, worth 31.1 VORP or 17 Win Shares, after he'd been lured to Wrigleyville before the 2004 season with a $1.75m deal.

I'm not saying it's easy to pick out the best bargains each winter, but they are out there. Grudzielanek and Graffanino are free agents again this winter. Terry Ryan might start by making inquiries there.

3rd Base	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(21) Cuddyer	.263/.330/.422	98	.268	14.2	6
(1) A. Rodriguez	.321/.421/.610	167	.352	99.7	37
(5) A. Ramirez	.302/.358/.568	137	.302	48.8	19
(10) Mueller	.295/.369/.430	112	.288	32.3	18
(15) Branyan	.257/.376/.490	126	.296	17.9	9

Or maybe the Twins should finally settle on moving Cuddyer to 2nd base. His cumulative value took a crater-sized hit this season because he had such a brutal April and spent a good share of the summer on the DL or the bench, but he did hit well after that first month (.275/.345/.450) and even his final batting line wouldn't have been such a shortcoming had he played 2nd base all season.

Bill Mueller, who reportedly drew interest from the Twins last July, looks like the best free agent at 3rd base this winter, if the club won't give Cuddles another chance there. Mueller was worth 32.3 VORP and 18 Win Shares for Boston, and he might be about to get pushed out at last by Kevin Youkilis.

Joe Randa (29.3 VORP, 17 Win Shares) is also on the market again, and may be of interest even though his bat tailed off quite a bit after the Reds sent him to San Diego in the summer.

Shortstop	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(33) Bartlett	.241/.313/.335	74	.244	4.2	6
(1) Young	.331/.385/.513	133	.311	80.1	27
(5) F. Lopez	.291/.350/.485	112	.287	52.4	22
(10) Eckstein	.293/.359/.395	98	.268	39.9	28
(15) Greene	.250/.294/.431	97	.262	20.4	17

Before the season, I figured the Twins could live with the rookie at Shortstop all year as long as he could field his position and play Guzman-level offense. In my book, he was a massive upgrade over Cristian Guzman in the field, taking away hits up the middle that Guzy never would have dreamed of waving at. And he wasn't that far from replacing Guzy's most recent levels with the stick, as Guzman had just a 78 OPS+ and .243 EqA in 2004.

It's not that a .240's EqA is so good for a SS. It remains a hole in the lineup, but pointing fingers at the rookie for bringing down the team is wrong. The more experienced guy the club had there last year was no better than the new kid. Bartlett also had double the run value of Juan Castro (2.1 VORP) in 40 fewer plate appearances.

Leftfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(32) Stewart	.274/.322/.388	88	.257	9.9	12
(1) Bay	.306/.402/.559	148	.326	81.7	34
(5) Burrell	.281/.389/.504	125	.301	50.1	26
(10) Holliday	.307/.361/.505	114	.285	37.4	19
(15) Catalanotto	.301/.367/.451	115	.289	26.4	16

Stewart completely escaped criticism in the local press this season, but in the worst season of his career, his poor plate production was as critical in the team's slide to 3rd place as any other factor. He was simply one of the worst regular Leftfielders in the majors. The difference between him and Jason Bay was at least 7 wins. In the Mauer section, I talked about the Win Share value above the expected contributions of an average bench player given the same playing opportunities: Shannon Stewart with 1 WSAB was essentially your average bench scrub masquerading as a Starting LF and Lead-Off Man this year.

OK, it could've been worse: the Twins Leftfielder could have been Terrence Long or Pedro Feliz. But there weren't many other players given regular time in LF who were just as bad, and I'm wagering that none of them were paid $6.5m this year.

You know what, maybe the savior of 2003 can bounce back next season. On the other hand, he's turning 32 in February, and this was a bad year ending with a shoulder injury, following a season in which he missed 2 months with a foot problem. If Terry Ryan is looking for some budget flexibility, dumping Shannon Stewart on any club willing to take him would be a prime place to start.

Centerfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(13) Hunter	.269/.337/.452	107	.283	24.4	12
(1) A. Jones	.263/.347/.575	133	.300	60.9	23
(5) Damon	.316/.366/.439	113	.293	49.2	25
(10) DeJesus	.293/.359/.445	114	.291	31.5	17
(15) Kotsay	.280/.325/.421	95	.266	23.2	19

Speaking of budget flexibility...

Torii put up fairly typical numbers in the 4 months before he broke his ankle in Boston. His OPS+ was a slight uptick from the 105 OPS+ he posted in 2004. His monthly splits show he had a monster June (.330/.410/.681), but his other 3 months were kinda meh. In July, he was batting .270/.324/.340. I think his #13 rank amongst CF's this year seems fair; it probably wouldn't have changed much had he been able to play the final 2 months. He was worth 31.2 VORP in 2004, 19.8 VORP in 2003. His career year of 2002 (.289/.334/.524; 50.8 VORP) seems as distant a memory as $1.35 for a gallon of gas. We also know he's clashed with younger members of the team lately, and he's occasionally been good for a dour quote when asked about departed veterans. His mood doesn't seem likely to get any better after his friend Jacque is gone.

It's not as if Torii needs to go because he's a bad player; but his play isn't irreplaceable, either. Terry Ryan may be able to apply the $10.75m due Torii to acquire a bat that's better than 25-30 runs above replacement-value. For that kind of money, he probably should find better value than that.

Lew Ford was no great shakes this year; I'd even call him a great disappointment. But even at his production level this year, the difference between him and Torii wasn't all that significant. Lew was worth 3 Win Shares more than the average bench scrub, given the same playing time; Torii, 5. The difference certainly isn't worth $10 mil, is it?

Rightfield	Batting Line	OPS+	EqA	VORP	WnSh
(23) Jones	.249/.318/.438	99	.270	17.7	15
(1) Guerrero	.317/.394/.565	156	.336	72.4	27
(5) Jenkins	.292/.375/.513	131	.300	49.7	22
(10) E. Brown	.286/.348/.455	113	.293	34.4	20
(15) J. Lane	.267/.316/.499	112	.274	28.2	16

It's a long ways from 2002 for Jacque, too, and I don't expect it'll hurt to try somebody else next year. Even the green Kubel might stand a fair chance at replacing that kind of production. Oakland's rookie Nick Swisher actually had a similar value to Jacque this season, batting .236/.322/.446, worth 14.2 VORP in 63 fewer plate appearances.

Jermaine Dye was the veteran bargain buy of last winter, paid $4m by the White Sox to hit .274/.333/.512, worth 35.6 VORP and 18 Win Shares. But the big surprise and feel-good story at the position this season was Emil Brown, in the #10 slot in the box above.

A former prospect of the Pirates organization, Brown hadn't seen the majors since 2001, when he hit .190/.284/.299 in 155 plate appearances between Pittsburgh and San Diego. After bouncing from San Diego through the farm systems of Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Houston, he signed last winter with the Royals, made the club out of spring training and finally shone like a diamond at age 30. Michael Restovich, take heart. Don't let 'em get you down.